Severe Thunderstorm Warning 331, NWS Tulsa, OK

526 
WWUS54 KTSA 130839
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
339 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

OKC131-130849-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0331.000000T0000Z-230813T0900Z/
Rogers OK-
339 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ROGERS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3631 9506 3614 9540 3621 9544 3625 9544
      3625 9543 3630 9544 3645 9513
TIME...MOT...LOC 0839Z 246DEG 25KT 3623 9536 

$$

OKC097-130900-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0331.000000T0000Z-230813T0900Z/
Mayes OK-
339 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT
FOR CENTRAL MAYES COUNTY...

At 339 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Chouteau,
moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pryor...                          Pryor Creek...
Chouteau...                       Salina...
Hoot Owl...                       Sportsmen Acres Community...
Strang...                         Snowdale State Park...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3631 9506 3614 9540 3621 9544 3625 9544
      3625 9543 3630 9544 3645 9513
TIME...MOT...LOC 0839Z 246DEG 25KT 3623 9536 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

224 
WWUS54 KTSA 130901
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
401 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

OKC097-130911-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0331.000000T0000Z-230813T0900Z/
Mayes OK-
401 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL MAYES COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3631 9506 3614 9540 3621 9544 3625 9544
      3625 9543 3630 9544 3645 9513
TIME...MOT...LOC 0901Z 238DEG 40KT 3636 9510 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1233 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 847 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Shower and thunderstorms to our west across Kansas, Oklahoma
and Texas will continue to spread east into the area overnight
as the low level jet strengthens. A few storms could still be
strong to severe with strong gusty winds, large hail and heavy
rain the concern. Only made a few adjustments to the forecast
for tonight to better reflect current trends.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Remnants of the thunderstorm complex will likely be ongoing Sunday
morning, mainly across northwest Arkansas. Another hot and humid
day is forecast on Sunday, ahead of an approaching frontal
boundary that will affect the region Sunday night into Monday. It
will be another day with heat headlines, though have held off on
going too far north with the Excessive Heat Warning for now, with
uncertainty on cloud coverage left over from overnight and morning
convection, and will leave for following shifts to evaluate more
recent data if any adjustments are needed.

The main player for this forecast period will be a fairly strong,
early Fall like shortwave trough that is progged to dive southeast
out of Canada during the day Sunday and into the Mid Mississippi
Valley by Monday morning. This will drive a cold frontal boundary
into northeastern Oklahoma Sunday night, progressing southeast
through the region by Monday midday. Showers and thunderstorms are
again expected to develop along the boundary Sunday afternoon
across central Kansas and move into northeast Oklahoma Sunday
night. Once again, a severe threat will accompany these storms as
well, with damaging winds and large hail the main threats. HEavy
rainfall will also be a concern, especially with the anomalously
high moisture content in place and the flow aloft being largely
parallel to the frontal boundary slowly moving southward.
This could lead to training of storms and high rainfall rates.
Currently the heaviest rainfall looks to stay mostly north and
east of the area, but could affect far northern parts or the
forecast areas along the Kansas and Missouri borders. Trends will
continue to be monitored by later shifts to evaluate the need for
a Flood Watch or not. Again, storm coverage and intensity is
expected to wane with southward extent Sunday night, as they
begin to interact with large scale subsidence associated with the
mid level ridge axis.

Cooler Canadian air will filter into the area behind the passing
frontal boundary, bringing a nice relief to the heat for a couple
of days. Clearing skies and light winds should allow for a couple
of cooler nights and pleasant, drier afternoons on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Several of the normally cooler locations could dip into
the mid to low 50s, especially Wednesday morning as the surface
high settles over the area. The relief will be short lived
however, as the upper ridge looks to build back overhead and bring
a return to the hot temperatures, though the humidity should be a
little lower than what we have experienced the last few days. The
forecast remains dry through the rest of the period after Monday
morning being removed from the stronger flow aloft through the
next week.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

A few showers will be possible near the northeast Oklahoma and far
northwest Arkansas sites through mid morning. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will likely develop this evening as a cold
front drops south into the area, with the northeast Oklahoma and
far northwest Arkansas sites again the most likely to be impacted
by this activity. VFR conditions will prevail outside of
thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   98  71  82  61 /  20  60  10   0
FSM  100  76  87  65 /  10  10  10   0
MLC  100  74  84  62 /   0  10  10   0
BVO   95  67  80  56 /  30  70  10   0
FYV   96  70  81  56 /  20  40  10   0
BYV   95  69  80  58 /  30  50  10   0
MKO   98  70  83  60 /  10  30  10   0
MIO   93  67  80  58 /  30  80   0   0
F10   99  70  82  59 /  10  30  10   0
HHW   99  75  90  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ054>068-070>076.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ049-053.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
511 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
511 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This evening.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Near the Kansas and Missouri Borders.
	ONSET...This evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Near the Kansas and Missouri Borders.
	ONSET...This evening.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...

Scattered thunderstorms to our west are expected to organize into a cluster of
storms later this evening and spread into eastern Oklahoma and eventually into
northwest Arkansas. The greatest potential for severe storms tonight is expected
to be near the Kansas border across northeast Oklahoma where wind gusts to around
70 mph and large hail will be possible.

Heat index values of 105 to 114 continue across southeast Oklahoma late this
afternoon with lesser values to the north. These conditions will slowly improve
as we move through the evening hours.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential...
Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Dangerous heat is expected again on Sunday across much of eastern
Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas. A cool front will provide
relief from the heat to start the work week.

Isolated thunderstorms remain possible thru the day on Sunday
across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Storm chances
increase on Sunday evening in this area in association with a cool
front. There is an elevated risk of severe storms with damaging
winds and hail the main threats. This threat will be greatest
closer to the Kansas and Missouri borders. A quieter weather
pattern is expected behind the front for this upcoming week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.