Severe Thunderstorm Warning 330, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
942 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 937 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Early evening supercell across NE OK has steadily evolved into a
linear cluster with sporadic wind potential within a strongly
unstable airmass that resides across the region. Further west
scattered storms continue to spread eastward toward eastern OK and
may well pose some risk of severe weather into the early morning
hours. Eventually a more defined warm advection corridor is
expected to focus storms later tonight through tomorrow morning
with the highest chances remaining across NE OK through NW AR.
Previous updates have adjusted for evening convection with minor
changes to the overnight precip chances.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Convection will likely be ongoing or close by to parts of
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas tomorrow morning, and
could linger through most of the morning hours. Lingering cloud
cover and affects from any outflow will likely keep temps down
somewhat tomorrow afternoon across northwest Arkansas. Have opted
to keep northwest Arkansas out of any heat headlines tomorrow for
this reason. Hot and humid conditions will continue again tomorrow
for most, so have issued additional headlines for the rest of the
area, including an excessive heat warning for parts of eastern
Oklahoma. Storm effects could potentially limit the heat some if
storms track further west.

The relatively active pattern will persist through the weekend and
into Monday as we remain on the fringe of the upper ridge and on
the southern edge of stronger westerly flow aloft. Another round
of showers and storms is expected Saturday night into Sunday,
mainly across the same areas as Saturday morning. By Sunday, a
stronger, early Fall like mid level trough will dive southeast
across the Midwest States, which will push a pretty strong cold
front into the region by Sunday night. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will peak during this time across the northern portions of
the forecast area. The complex or line of storms will likely
weaken with southward extent as it becomes more removed from the
supporting flow aloft and closer to the center of the upper ridge.
Cooler and relatively drier air will filter in behind the front
during the day Monday and Monday night. Some areas could see some
lows in the upper 50s both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings before
the upper ridge builds back over the area by the middle of the
week and warmer more humid air returns. Another trough could
affect the area toward the end of next week which could bring
another frontal boundary into the region toward the end of this
forecast package.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

An isolated thunderstorm will impact KBVO right at the beginning of the
valid period with other showers and storms possibly impacting the
northern sites later tonight into early Saturday. VFR conditions are
generally expected with MVFR to IFR condition in thunderstorm areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  97  75  97 /  20  20  40  20
FSM   78  97  76  99 /  20  20  10  10
MLC   78  98  77  99 /  10  10  10   0
BVO   73  96  72  94 /  40  30  60  30
FYV   73  92  73  95 /  30  30  40  20
BYV   72  91  71  95 /  40  40  40  30
MKO   75  96  74  98 /  20  20  20  10
MIO   72  92  72  94 /  40  30  60  30
F10   75  97  75  98 /  20  20  20  10
HHW   78 100  78  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ054>059-
     063>065-068.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ049-
     053-060>062-066-067-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
504 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-121030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
504 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Isolated through 10 PM...chances increase after 1 AM.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing...improving after sunset.

DISCUSSION...
Dangerous heat continues this afternoon with widespread heat index values of
105 to 115 degrees across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Conditions
will slowly improve after sunset with dangerous heat returning Saturday.
Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening across
eastern Oklahoma with a limited risk of severe weather. Additional storms
may spread into the region after midnight and most likely focused across
far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. These storms will also have
a limited risk of severe weather.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY and SUNDAY...Thunderstorm and Dangerous Heat Potential.
MONDAY through WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.
THURSDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Dangerous heat will continue across the region both Saturday and Sunday.
Afternoon heat index values of 105 to 115 will remain possible both day.

Thunderstorms may be ongoing across the region Saturday morning and
additional development is possible Saturday night into Sunday. The higher
chances will remain across northeast Oklahoma through northwest Arkansas.
A cold front passes Sunday with an increased corridor of thunderstorm
chances followed by cooler and drier air for early next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
746 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

OKZ061-120115-
Rogers OK-
746 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...Strong thunderstorm outflow winds will impact portions of central
Rogers County through 815 PM CDT...

At 746 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorm outflow
winds along a line extending from 3 miles southwest of Oologah to 6
miles west of Foyil. Movement was southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Claremore...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 246 and 257.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3643 9565 3634 9543 3634 9544 3627 9555
      3626 9573 3641 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 319DEG 30KT 3641 9575 3641 9563

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
756 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

OKZ057-062-120130-
Craig OK-Mayes OK-
756 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Craig
and central Mayes Counties through 830 PM CDT...

At 756 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 5 miles south of Foyil to 4 miles west of Adair
to 5 miles west of White Oak. Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pryor...                          Pryor Creek...
Salina...                         Langley...
Adair...                          Ketchum...
Spavinaw...                       Disney...
Pensacola...                      Hoot Owl...
Cherokee State Park...            Spavinaw State Park...
Sportsmen Acres Community...      Strang...
Snowdale State Park...            Disney Little Blue State Park...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3662 9500 3658 9501 3627 9501 3620 9537
      3633 9544 3634 9543 3645 9526 3662 9516
TIME...MOT...LOC 0056Z 299DEG 28KT 3635 9550 3645 9534 3660 9535

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
904 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

ARZ001-010-OKZ069-120245-
Benton AR-Washington AR-Adair OK-
904 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Benton,
western Washington and northern Adair Counties through 945 PM CDT...

At 903 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from West Siloam Springs to 4 miles northwest of
Westville to 2 miles east of Proctor. Movement was southeast at 40
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fayetteville...                   Springdale...
Siloam Springs...                 Farmington...
Prairie Grove...                  Tontitown...
Lincoln...                        Westville...
Watts...                          Christie...
Cincinnati...                     Baron...
Elm Springs...                    Walnut Grove...
Savoy...                          Ballard...
Wedington...                      Gallitin...
Rhea...                           Canehill...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3591 9425 3576 9448 3599 9477 3608 9466
      3616 9462 3616 9456 3623 9457 3620 9419
TIME...MOT...LOC 0203Z 294DEG 33KT 3618 9459 3604 9461 3597 9474

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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