Severe Thunderstorm Warning 308, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
151 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon through tonight)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

Scattered showers continue to decrease in coverage early this
afternoon across far southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas.
A moderately/very unstable air-mass has developed across portions
of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas with the breaks in
the cloud cover. An unseasonably vigorous mid level short wave and
associated upper level speed max will shift into the aforementioned
area by late afternoon.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will likely develop by late
afternoon ahead of frontal boundary across NE OK, spreading into
NW AR by early evening. Forecast point soundings support the
potential for a few discrete supercells with all hazards possible
including very large hail and tornadoes. In addition, locally
heavy rainfall will be likely as PWATs climb in excess of 2.0
inches, with a few training storms possible. Given the previous
rainfall earlier this morning across northwest Arkansas, coupled
with the expected QPF this evening, a flood watch has been issued
through this evening for the four northern NW AR counties. The
severe weather threat will likely end around midnight as upper
level speed max shifts east of the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

The cold front is forecast to stall near the Red River into Thursday
with brief break from the heat. A secondary upper level speed max
will traverse the region Thursday night into Friday morning with
the potential for another round of scattered showers/thunderstorms.
High temperatures on Friday are still a little uncertain and will
depend on how long showers continue into the afternoon hours.

A slow warming trend is forecast into the weekend as upper ridge
begins to slowly build back into the southern Plains. At least low
precipitation chances however will continue, mainly during the
overnight/early morning hours through Sunday night as northwest flow
aloft persists. Again, this could impact high temperatures in a
few areas if precipitation lingers into the afternoon hours.

Synoptic scale upper low will dig into the Great Lakes region early
next week. This feature should allow another cold front to move
through the area during this time, hopefully providing another
brief break from the heat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

Scattered to broken mid and high clouds should remain common
across the CWA this afternoon with a brief period of MVFR
ceilings remaining for far Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas. Also...scattered showers and a few storms will continue
to move eastward across Southeast Oklahoma and West Central
Arkansas over the next couple of hours. Additional convection is
progged to develop late afternoon and evening across parts of
Eastern Oklahoma and also Northwest Arkansas as a cold front
enters the CWA. The greater potentials look to be over Northwest
Arkansas and have updated Tempo groups for timing. Gusty winds and
MVFR conditions are possible within the convection this evening.
Behind the cold front...northerly winds and clearing conditions
are expected to spread from northwest to southeast through the
CWA. Underneath the clearing conditions...there is potential for
areas of reduced visibility across far Northwest Arkansas and have
added additional Tempo groups for timing. For Thursday
morning...conditions should lift back to VFR by mid morning with
scattered high clouds and east to northerly winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  89  70  93 /  10   0  20  30
FSM   71  92  72  94 /  40   0  20  30
MLC   69  91  72  95 /  20   0  20  30
BVO   64  89  67  94 /  10   0  20  30
FYV   65  88  67  92 /  80   0  20  30
BYV   65  86  66  91 /  80   0  10  30
MKO   66  88  69  92 /  20   0  20  30
MIO   65  87  67  92 /  30   0  10  20
F10   67  89  69  94 /  10   0  20  30
HHW   73  96  74  97 /  20   0  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-071-073.

AR...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for ARZ001-002-010-011.

&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...20

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
536 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

OKZ057-058-092315-
Craig OK-Ottawa OK-
536 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Craig
and Ottawa Counties through 615 PM CDT...

At 536 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 6 miles southeast of Quapaw to 2 miles southeast
of Welch. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Miami...                          Baxter Springs...
Commerce...                       Quapaw...
Welch...                          Bluejacket...
Wyandotte...                      Treece...
Picher...                         Narcissa...
Ottawa...                         Peoria...
Cardin...                         Pyramid Corners...
Twin Bridges State Park...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 301 and 324.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9462 3677 9462 3675 9520 3700 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 273DEG 26KT 3692 9469 3685 9505

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
542 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

OKZ056>058-092315-
Craig OK-Ottawa OK-Nowata OK-
542 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Craig, west
central Ottawa and east central Nowata Counties through 615 PM CDT...

At 541 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 8 miles
west of Welch, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Welch...                          Bluejacket...
Hollow...                         Pyramid Corners...
Centralia...                      Centrailia...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3680 9556 3694 9523 3692 9491 3669 9519
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 274DEG 27KT 3684 9525

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH