Severe Thunderstorm Warning 305, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
238 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

Of immediate concern is the ongoing severe weather across east
central and southeast Oklahoma within the mid level moisture axis
and associated with an approaching mid level vort max currently in
southwest to south central Oklahoma. Another batch of strong to
severe storms is located across northwest and north central
Oklahoma in response to another vort max in western Kansas.
Storms across far southeast Oklahoma have exhibited supercell
structure and likely produced large hail despite high freezing
levels. Much like yesterday, these thunderstorms should persist
past sunrise with an overall decrease in coverage toward midday as
the mid level forcing shifts east of the area. Locally heavy
rainfall could become an issue, especially in parts of far
southeast Oklahoma where training could occur. High temperatures
today should be below normal once again, with forecast values
nearer to those offered by the short term blend as opposed to the
NBM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

Potential for additional thunderstorm development will exist early
Wednesday morning focused mainly across northeast Oklahoma and
into far northwest Arkansas, but it is less certain than the last
couple of nights have been. This development will result from an
increasing low level jet, with the bulk of the thunderstorms
likely to be north of Oklahoma and Arkansas borders.

Wednesday features the best potential for organized severe
weather across parts of far eastern Oklahoma and into Arkansas, in
association with a robust upper level system set to move through
the Central Plains. Thunderstorms should develop along the cold
front - currently forecast to be near the I-44 corridor - late
afternoon and into the evening, shifting east of the area by
midnight. Regarding the severe weather potential, what happens
tonight will play a major role in that given the possibility of
residual cloud cover impacting instability and also any lingering
boundaries. Large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes look to be a
concern at this point.

A brief dry period should follow the Wednesday system, with
overnight MCS activity increasing once again Thursday night into
early Friday, primarily across northeast Oklahoma and into
northwest Arkansas. This same region will remain at risk for
nightly MCSs through the weekend and into early next week, with
the ridge center remaining south in Texas. Temperatures should
reach above normal levels late this week and continue through the
weekend, with heat advisories or warnings becoming necessary
again. While the chance of seeing triple digit ambient
temperatures doesn't look likely, the rains we've seen of late
could leave us with higher humidity and some nasty heat indices.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

Another round of TSRA will impact the E OK sites early in
the period mainly between 08z-12z with MVFR vsbys in thunder
included in TEMPO groups. TSRA axis may miss the NW AR sites,
but will include a VCTS mention between 11-13z. KFSM will carry the
same VSBY restrictions in two tempo groups between 09z-15z.
Once thunder ends, VFR elements will prevail for the remainder
of the period at all sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  75  93  69 /  50  40  40  20
FSM   87  73  92  73 /  80  30  40  20
MLC   88  77  95  71 /  60  20  30  10
BVO   88  71  91  65 /  30  50  40  20
FYV   86  71  87  68 /  50  40  60  40
BYV   87  70  85  66 /  30  50  70  50
MKO   85  74  92  67 /  70  30  30  20
MIO   88  72  89  66 /  30  60  60  30
F10   86  75  94  67 /  60  20  20  10
HHW   87  75  96  75 /  40  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
510 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-081000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
510 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Mainly South of Highway 412.
	ONSET...After Midnight.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...South of Highway 412.
	ONSET...After Midnight.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...South of Highway 412.
	ONSET...After Midnight.

DISCUSSION...
Another thunderstorm complex is expected to affect parts of
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas after midnight tonight,
with the greatest impacts likely south of Highway 412. A few
severe storms will be possible, with large hail being the main
threat. Locally heavy rainfall will accompany the stronger storms,
which may lead to some localized flooding concerns.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...
            Dangerous Heat Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SATURDAY and SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Storms may be ongoing Tuesday morning across southeast Oklahoma
and western Arkansas, but will diminish in coverage as the
morning progresses. Another complex of storms is expected to
develop Tuesday night across Kansas and move southeast into
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas late Tuesday night, with
storms continuing into Wednesday morning. Wind will be the
primary severe threat with this complex.

Additional storms may develop Wednesday afternoon and evening along a
frontal boundary that will be moving through the area. However,
coverage and intensity of Wednesday afternoon and evening storms
will be dependent on the evolution and impacts of the previous
storm complex. Beyond Wednesday, isolated to scattered storm
chances remain possible into the upcoming weekend.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
134 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

OKZ054-059-080700-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
134 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Osage
and northwestern Pawnee Counties through 200 AM CDT...

At 134 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Ponca City, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fairfax...                        Shidler...
Ralston...                        Burbank...
Skedee...                         Foraker...
Southern Kaw Lake...              Webb City...
Apperson...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3670 9703 3668 9694 3675 9689 3674 9683
      3677 9682 3678 9675 3690 9675 3687 9645
      3637 9668 3647 9703 3651 9703 3651 9701
      3653 9698 3655 9690 3658 9689 3660 9692
      3658 9698 3659 9705 3660 9704 3668 9706
TIME...MOT...LOC 0634Z 288DEG 27KT 3673 9704

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
203 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

OKZ054-055-059-080730-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-Washington OK-
203 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Osage, west
central Washington and central Pawnee Counties through 230 AM CDT...

At 203 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 5 miles
southeast of Fairfax, moving east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Bartlesville...
Sand Springs...                   Pawhuska...
Pawnee...                         Skiatook...
Hominy...                         Cleveland...
Fairfax...                        Barnsdall...
Wynona...                         Ochelata...
Ralston...                        Avant...
Westport...                       Osage...
Burbank...                        Blackburn...
Skedee...                         Walnut Creek State Park...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3676 9676 3672 9593 3616 9607 3616 9612
      3634 9693
TIME...MOT...LOC 0703Z 287DEG 52KT 3652 9664

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
237 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

OKZ054-055-059-060-080815-
Tulsa OK-Osage OK-Pawnee OK-Washington OK-
237 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Osage,
southwestern Washington, southeastern Pawnee and northeastern Tulsa
Counties through 315 AM CDT...

At 237 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Hominy, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Sand Springs...
Skiatook...                       Hominy...
Cleveland...                      Barnsdall...
Sperry...                         Ramona...
Wynona...                         Jennings...
Avant...                          Westport...
Vera...                           Osage...
Hallett...                        Terlton...
Walnut Creek State Park...        Turley...
Tulsa International Airport...    Pershing...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3618 9670 3660 9643 3658 9584 3615 9589
TIME...MOT...LOC 0737Z 287DEG 30KT 3645 9636

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
243 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

OKZ065-066-080815-
Okmulgee OK-Okfuskee OK-
243 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Okmulgee and southeastern Okfuskee Counties through 315 AM CDT...

At 242 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Clearview, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Henryetta...                      Weleetka...
Dewar...                          Schulter...
Clearview...                      Pharoah...
Bryant...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 225 and
243.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 AM CDT for
southeastern, northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3565 9602 3547 9585 3546 9587 3543 9588
      3538 9596 3538 9598 3536 9598 3529 9610
      3529 9622 3534 9629
TIME...MOT...LOC 0742Z 232DEG 24KT 3536 9621

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH