Severe Thunderstorm Warning 279, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
247 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

A compact, but well organized MCS extends from far SW KS into NW
OK early this morning. Some recent runs of the HRRR show this
system bowing into and thru NE OK and NW AR between 12 and 18Z.
Pockets of damaging wind are certainly possible, and an isolated
short-lived tornado is also possible on the leading edge near any
bowed out line segment. Locally heavy rainfall is also expected
given high PWAT/rain efficiency, though totals should be limited
by the progressive nature of the system. Outflow from the system
should keep all areas out of advisory type heat today, though it
may be close down near the Red River.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

The NAM and EC develop showers and storms tonight from east-
central and southeast OK into west-central AR, possibly near an
H85 front. Several CAMs show this signal as well, except for the
HRRR. PoPs for the overnight were raised from previous forecast.
Some strong NWrly flow aloft develops over the Plains this
weekend. A shortwave trough traversing this flow could bring
isolated storm chances near the KS/MO borders late Saturday night
into Sunday and again Sunday afternoon in the same location in
association with another weak wave/front. After that, mid level
heights rise as the ridge builds east in our direction. Several
days of hot and dry weather are expected next week, with some
locations getting close to advisory level heat. The summer of 2023
rolls on.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

Isolated showers/storms will remain possible tonight across
Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas ahead of the main MCS
that is expected to move into the CWA early Friday morning. This
complex of storms looks to move across Northeast Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas through the morning hours and will continue
Tempo groups for timing of greater potential. Gusty winds...heavy
rainfall and brief MVFR conditions will be possible within the
stronger convection. Behind the main area of storms...additional
scattered showers/storms looks to be possible for a short period
before the storm system exits off to the east Friday afternoon.
Scattered to overcast mid and high clouds are forecast through
mainly Friday afternoon along with the potential for a period of
MVFR ceilings Friday morning. By Friday evening...few to
scattered high clouds are forecast over the CWA. Winds through the
period become north to northeasterly from north to south as the
surface frontal boundary pushes over the CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  64  89  67 /  90  10   0  10
FSM   89  68  90  68 /  70  40  10   0
MLC   88  67  88  65 /  40  30  10   0
BVO   79  60  88  63 /  80  10   0  20
FYV   81  60  86  62 /  80  30   0  20
BYV   79  60  87  63 /  80  30   0  20
MKO   82  64  87  65 /  70  20   0  10
MIO   79  60  88  64 /  60  10   0  20
F10   82  64  87  64 /  70  20   0   0
HHW   94  71  89  66 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
514 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-221015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
514 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing Northeast Oklahoma...After 7 AM Northwest Arkansas.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA... Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing Northeast Oklahoma...After 7 AM Northwest Arkansas.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Far Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Early Afternoon.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing Eastern Oklahoma...After 7 AM Northwest Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe thunderstorm complex is expected to continue to
move across northeast Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas this
morning. Locally damaging winds to 70 mph is the primary threat
with a secondary threat of isolated large hail. There is also a
limited tornado potential for the possibility of quick spin-ups
along the leading line of storms as they move into northeast
Oklahoma. A weakening trend is forecast as the complex reaches
into northwest Arkansas by mid morning. The majority of the storms
look to be exiting northwest Arkansas by early afternoon.

Ample amounts of moisture over the region ahead of the storm
complex will help to create locally heavy rainfall across portions
of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this morning. Hourly
rain rates of 1 to 2 inches and locally higher are possible, which
increases the potential for localized flash flooding conditions
during the morning commute.

South of the storm complex, across far southeast Oklahoma, hot and
humid conditions will again be possible today with heat index
values in the 100 to near 105 degree range this afternoon.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...High Wind Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Cooler conditions are forecast to spread over the region Friday
and remain possible Saturday. There a slight chance of
thunderstorms late Saturday night and Sunday before the strong
ridge of high pressure expands back over the Southern Plains for
the start of next week. A warming trend then returns early next
week with hot and humid conditions forecast across eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
530 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

OKZ054-211100-
Osage OK-
530 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Osage County
through 600 AM CDT...

At 530 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 4 miles east of Chilocco to 7 miles north of
Blackburn. Movement was east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawhuska...                       Fairfax...
Barnsdall...                      Shidler...
Wynona...                         Avant...
Burbank...                        Elgin...
Grainola...                       Foraker...
Bigheart...                       Pearsonia...
Sunset Lake...                    Osage Hills State Park...
Okesa...                          Eastern Kaw Lake...
Webb City...                      Tallant...
Apperson...                       Pershing...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9628 3649 9600 3648 9668 3675 9687
      3674 9683 3677 9682 3678 9675 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 1030Z 257DEG 47KT 3699 9698 3649 9659

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH