Severe Thunderstorm Warning 274, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1220 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1021 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

Short term attention focused on a cluster of strong to severe
storms over southeast Kansas, which based on recent trends should
continue to dive SSE into parts of northeast OK in the next couple
of hours, potentially into northwest AR during the afternoon.
Environment over this area remains quite unstable with sufficient
shear to maintain organization. Updated forecast will include
higher POPs across northeast OK into the early afternoon. Unclear
at the moment as to how this could impact the ongoing Heat
Advisory, but would expect areas that remain outside of the
influence from storms will reach criteria with ease. As such the
current configuration is good for now.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

Low chances for storms to clip far northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas overnight, however main complex should stay
northeast of the area. Upper ridge will begin to build over the
southern Plains on Tuesday with dangerous heat indices climbing
into the 110 to 115 degree range during the afternoon. Still
appears that with the recent rainfall over the past week, models
continue to mix out drier air at the surface too quickly both
Tuesday and Wednesday. Therefore, stayed on the high side of NBM
guidance concerning dew-points both days. Low level moisture may
also pool across portions of northeast Oklahoma Wednesday
afternoon as a frontal boundary briefly stalls near the Oklahoma/
Kansas line. For now, stayed with a heat advisory on Tuesday
across the entire area. Some locations may need to be upgraded to
an excessive heat watch/warning as dew-point trends become more
certain.

Upper ridge tries to break down somewhat on Thursday with front
sagging slowly south. Locations south of boundary will however
continue to see very hot/humid conditions and heat headlines will
likely again be needed.

Models continue to suggest the potential for an MCS to potentially
impact parts of the region Thursday night into Friday morning as
mid level wave dives southeast. This should push front south of
area on Friday with a break from the excessive heat. Temperatures
expected to remain below normal into the weekend as broad upper
trough develops over the central/eastern states with upper high
shifting back westward into the four Corners region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

Thunderstorm cluster moving into northeast OK at present will
continue to bring threat of strong and gusty winds and MVFR
conditions to NE OK sites during the early part of the forecast.
Evolution into NW AR or SE OK is more uncertain through the
afternoon. Outside of these storms. VFR conditions will prevail
through the forecast period, with an increase in SSW winds Tuesday
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   94  75 101  79 /  60  10   0   0
FSM   95  75 101  79 /  20  20   0   0
MLC   95  76  99  79 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   92  71 100  74 /  60  20   0   0
FYV   91  72  97  77 /  30  30   0   0
BYV   92  70  98  79 /  40  40   0   0
MKO   92  75  99  79 /  60  10   0   0
MIO   91  71  99  78 /  40  30   0   0
F10   93  75  99  79 /  20  10   0   0
HHW   94  75  97  78 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ049-053>076.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-059-
     064>067-070-071-073>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...14

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1052 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1052 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms will move out of
southeast Kansas and into northeast Oklahoma late this morning
through early afternoon. These storms will be capable of producing
hail up to 2 inches in diameter and damaging winds to 70 mph.
These storms may also eventually build into parts of northwest
Arkansas during the afternoon, posing a continues severe weather
risk. A slight chance of storms will again be possible late
tonight across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

Outside of any storm influences, hot and humid conditions will
likely develop with heat indices from 105 to 110 degrees likely
across portions of eastern Oklahoma.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...High Wind Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Dangerous heat and humidity will return Tuesday and Wednesday
with heat indices climbing into the 105 to 110 degree range. A
heat advisory is also currently in effect Tuesday. Heat indices
may exceed 110 degrees in some locations and an excessive heat
warning may be issued later today or tonight as the forecast
becomes more certain.

Storm chances return for the latter part of the week as a series
of mid level disturbances traverse the region in northwest flow
aloft.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Emergency managers and first responders should prepare for another
several day stretch of dangerous heat this week. An increase in
heat-related incidents is likely. Provision of public access
cooling stations is encouraged.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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