Severe Thunderstorm Warning 238, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
317 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023

Ongoing complex of storms will continue to drift southeastward
through the morning hours and eventually impact parts of eastern
Oklahoma. Locations along and south of I-40 look to have the best
chance at seeing some strong storms and locally heavy rainfall
this morning. Strong gusty winds, along with localized flash
flooding potential will be the main threats with this activity.
Additional scattered shower/storm development is possible along
the northern fringe of the current complex as an outflow boundary
left over from earlier convection drifts south and interacts with
some modest lift associated with the developing MCV associated
with the current complex. The severe potential will be low across
northeast Oklahoma, but some heavy downpours will be possible with
high precipitable water values in place. Storms should exit
southeast Oklahoma by late morning. Lingering cloud cover from
this morning's convection will allow temperatures to be slow to
warm until the clouds break by the afternoon hours. highs across
the area are expected to still reach into the lower 90s, except
across parts of southeast Oklahoma where clouds linger for a
little longer.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023

Overnight storms should largely take a break again tonight, with
the exception of a few scattered storm possible late tonight
across western Arkansas as weak disturbance grazes the area. The
heat and humidity will become the main story for Wednesday as the
upper ridge across the Southwest U.S nudges eastward over the
Southern Plains. High temperatures are expected to soar into the
mid to upper 90s. high dewpoints in place, aided by recent
rainfall will likely lead to heat index values in excess of 105
degrees for most locations with some localized areas over 110
possible. Heat headlines will likely be needed for Wednesday with
later forecast packages.

A frontal boundary is progged to slowly drop south to near the
OK/KS border by Wednesday evening and shower and thunderstorm
chances will once again increase Wednesday night through Friday,
especially across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas,
closer to the frontal boundary. Thursday and Friday are still
expected to be rather warm, though not as hot as Wednesday due to
more cloud cover and rain chances. A series of shortwave troughs
will then make their way through the northwest flow aloft over the
weekend, as the ridge retrogrades back across the Desert
Southwest. This will bring more widespread storm chances for the
weekend. The mid level troughing should also help push the frontal
boundary through the region, allowing for a return to cooler,
below normal temperatures for a few days. Large scale ridging
looks to return toward the middle to latter part of next week with
the threat of triple digit heat increasing across are large part
of the central CONUS.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible overnight
into Tuesday morning, with KMLC, KRVS, and KTUL most likely to be
impacted. VFR conditions will prevail outside of any
thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  76  98  78 /  40  10   0  20
FSM   93  76  99  79 /  30  20   0  10
MLC   90  76  95  79 /  60  10   0  10
BVO   91  72  98  74 /  30  10   0  30
FYV   90  72  97  75 /  20  20  10  20
BYV   90  72  98  76 /  20  20  20  30
MKO   90  75  96  77 /  30  10   0  20
MIO   91  73  99  75 /  20  10  10  30
F10   89  75  95  77 /  40  10   0  10
HHW   87  75  93  78 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
532 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
532 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Generally West of a line from Bartlesville to Hugo.
	ONSET...After 1 AM.

DISCUSSION...
A thunderstorm complex is forecast to move southeast into eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas late tonight. Organized severe
weather is not anticipated through tonight, however a few strong
to marginally severe wind gusts may be possible generally along
and west of a line from Bartlesville to Hugo in eastern Oklahoma.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Dangerous
			Heat Potential.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous
Heat Potential. SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to continue across eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Tuesday morning. Once they move
out, hotter and more humid weather moves in through Thursday with
only low thunderstorm chances across far northeast Oklahoma and
far northwest Arkansas. Afternoon heat index values from 105 to
110 degrees will be common Wednesday and Thursday.

Unsettled weather will return late this week through the weekend
as a weak frontal boundary approaches from the north and stalls
somewhere in our vicinity. This will result in daily thunderstorm
chances, along with somewhat cooler temperatures.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
308 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023

OKZ065-066-110900-
Okmulgee OK-Okfuskee OK-
308 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Okmulgee and eastern Okfuskee Counties through 400 AM CDT...

At 308 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Castle, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Okemah...                         Weleetka...
Bearden...                        Castle...
Clearview...                      Pharoah...
Bryant...                         Mason...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 214 and
233.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3558 9636 3538 9597 3537 9598 3529 9598
      3529 9627 3541 9644 3546 9644 3546 9646
TIME...MOT...LOC 0808Z 305DEG 26KT 3547 9635

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH