Severe Thunderstorm Warning 227, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
846 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 845 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023
Cluster of strong to severe storms currently moving into portions
of northeast Oklahoma this morning. Ahead of storms, a zone of
moderate instability is present with MUCAPES in the 2000-3000 J/kg
range. Although flow aloft is somewhat marginal, expect a strong
to marginally severe convective cluster to move through portions
of east-central Oklahoma this morning. Damaging winds and brief
torrential rainfall will be likely in the stronger storms.
Depending on how quickly complex shifts east, high temperatures
may not be fully realized in some areas. For now, didn't change
high temperatures but this may be needed with later updates.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

Upper ridge strengthens across the region Wednesday and remains
dominant through Thursday before weakening slightly on Friday. Hot
temperatures are expected area wide during this time frame. The
influence from the Tuesday night storms raising some uncertainty
on heat extent on Wednesday, otherwise the pattern is favorable
for widespread triple digit heat through Friday with record high
temps possible at a few locations. Expect a large portion of the
forecast area to receive heat related warnings or advisories for
this time frame.

A slow moving cold front moves into the region late Friday through
Saturday as the upper ridge loses influence. Temperatures will
cool to nearer seasonal normals along with an increasing chance of
showers and storms. The pattern through the weekend into early
next week appears to favor daily shower and storm chances with
temps continuing near early July normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

A complex of storms may move into parts of NE OK after 03-04z,
so will carry a tempo group between 05z-07z at KBVO and a prob30
at KTUL and KRVS. Tempo groups will be included at the NW AR sites
between 07z-09z. Will leave out any thunder mention at KFSM as
complex looks to stay north of that site. Otherwise through the
period outside of thunder, VFR elements will prevail at all
sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  77 103  80 /  50  50   0   0
FSM   97  78 104  79 /  50  30   0   0
MLC   96  77 101  78 /  50  10   0   0
BVO   95  72 103  74 /  20  60   0   0
FYV   93  73  98  76 /  20  50   0   0
BYV   93  72  97  79 /  10  60   0   0
MKO   94  75 101  78 /  70  20   0   0
MIO   94  73  99  77 /  20  60   0   0
F10   95  75 101  77 /  80  10   0   0
HHW   97  75 100  76 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053-060-064>067-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ019-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
910 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-281000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
910 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing and after 10 PM.

HEAVY RAINFALL.
    RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Narrow corridor northeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...This afternoon.

DISCUSSION...

A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms will likely move through
portions of northeast Oklahoma into west-central Arkansas this
morning. Damaging winds, brief torrential rainfall and dangerous
lightning will be likely in the stronger bow segments.

Hot and humid conditions may expand across the region this afternoon
with heat index values of 105 to 110 degrees possible across
portions of eastern Oklahoma and west central Oklahoma by mid
afternoon. Depending on how long storms linger into this afternoon,
some areas may see slightly lower heat indices.

A thunderstorm complex is expected to develop across west of the
region this evening and spread quickly east and southeastward
overnight. The storm complex is expected to track in or near
northeast Oklahoma through northwest Arkansas with a corridor of
strong damaging winds likely as the storms pass. Recent storm damage
has left many trees weakened across the region and additional damage
is possible with stronger winds.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
SATURDAY through MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Hot temperatures will intensify across the region Wednesday
through Friday with record high temperatures possible.
Additional heat advisories or warnings are likely for large
portion of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas during this
period. Any additional power outages from the Tuesday night
storms will worsen the heat stress conditions.

A cold front moves into the region Friday night and Saturday
with cooler temperatures and a chance of showers and storms.
Daily thunderstorm chances are expected over the weekend
into early next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
929 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0909 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 SE Bristow            35.81N 96.35W
06/27/2023  M59 MPH          Creek              OK   Mesonet

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1021 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Checotah                35.48N 95.53W
06/27/2023  M59 MPH          McIntosh           OK   Trained Spotter

&&