Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1211 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 925 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

Bottom line up front...looks like a long and active night for
much of the forecast area in terms of severe weather potential.
Presently there are two zones of ongoing severe weather that will
begin to impact parts of eastern OK within the next few hours.
First, an expanding linear complex moving across northwest OK,
with a history of 60-80 mph gusts. This will continue to move ESE
toward northeast OK and given the thermodynamic environment in
place, will sweep through northwest AR late tonight. Second, a
cluster of somewhat more discrete convection moving int o south
central OK, near region or upper diffluence. This should continue
to organize over the next few hours into another complex which
will move across southeast OK.

Still some question remaining regarding the possible interaction
of these two complexes, but recent trends seem to show that the
southern one will outpace the northern one enough that both will
offer potential for swaths of high-end damaging wind gusts and
perhaps hail as well. There does remain potential for embedded low
level rotation within these lines of storms as well, as the HRRR
has been suggesting some interaction between the NE OK complex and
a subtle low level boundary lifting north across eastern OK.
These above mentioned storms will exit the CWA around 2-3 AM, but
that might not be the end as a consistent signal remains that
additional storms could develop late tonight across
central/western OK and organize into another complex, which would
move across SE OK around 10-12z.

Forecast will be updated to raise POPs in the immediate term
across far southeast OK, otherwise no substantial changes to the
forecast or the overall messaging.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

Storms will likely be ongoing Sunday morning, especially across
far E OK and NW AR. Severe weather potential will be lower at that
time. Most activity will be east of the area after 18z, but will
keep lower PoPs between 18z-21z. Upper ridging begins to take
shape over much of the central CONUS next week which will result
in warmer temperatures. Developing low pressure systems across the
PAC NW and SE results in the upper ridge becoming elongated with
a more SW-NE orientation. Late in the week, weak upper level
disturbances moving across the top of the compressed ridge may
offer low chances for showers and storms during that time, but
will largely keep a dry forecast beyond Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

Pilots will have severe weather to contend with in the near term,
then a period of MVFR cigs during the morning, then trending
toward VFR by tomorrow afternoon. Major impacts to the Tulsa
airports are possible within the next hour.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   85  65  93  69 /  30   0   0   0
FSM   85  67  93  71 /  60  10   0   0
MLC   87  64  94  71 /  40   0   0  10
BVO   85  61  93  65 /  30   0   0   0
FYV   80  62  90  65 /  60  10   0   0
BYV   79  62  88  64 /  70  10   0   0
MKO   84  64  91  70 /  40   0   0   0
MIO   82  63  91  66 /  50  10   0   0
F10   84  64  91  70 /  30   0   0   0
HHW   87  66  92  72 /  40   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
459 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
459 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 9 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 9 PM.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late Evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late Evening.

DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorms will become likely from late this evening into
early Sunday morning across much of eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas. Significant impacts are possible, with damaging winds
from 70 to 80 mph and large hail the main threats. Across areas
west of Highway 75, very large hail to the size of tennis balls
may also occur. A limited tornado threat will exist for parts of
eastern Oklahoma, but tornadoes are not the main concern with
storms tonight.

Two regions for severe thunderstorm development are possible this
evening and overnight, with the highest confidence for storms
that initiate in western and central Oklahoma prior to moving
eastward into the region. Far southeast Oklahoma is a secondary
region for development, although confidence is lower. Thunderstorms
in both areas would transition eastward into western Arkansas
after midnight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms should be ongoing Sunday morning
across parts of southeast Oklahoma and into western Arkansas, with
the threat likely to end by midday Sunday. Damaging winds would be
the primary severe weather threat Sunday morning.

Largely dry conditions will arrive for the early to middle part of
next week, along with seasonably hot and humid conditions. Heat
indices will near triple digits during the early part of the work
week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1255 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Sallisaw                35.46N 94.79W
06/18/2023  M60 MPH          Sequoyah           OK   ASOS

&&

CAS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Tulsa                   36.13N 95.92W
06/18/2023                   Tulsa              OK   Amateur Radio

            Trees and power lines down near 41st and
            Yale.

&&

CAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

OKZ056-057-180645-
Craig OK-Nowata OK-
1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Craig
and eastern Nowata Counties through 145 AM CDT...

At 1258 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 5 miles east of South Coffeyville to near Nowata.
Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Nowata...                         Hollow...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch also remains in
effect until 400 AM CDT for northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3699 9504 3697 9503 3666 9566 3700 9557
      3700 9501
TIME...MOT...LOC 0558Z 227DEG 19KT 3702 9552 3667 9564

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
100 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1213 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Jenks                   36.13N 95.92W
06/18/2023                   Tulsa              OK   ASOS

            Jenks RIverside Airport.

&&

CAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
105 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

OKZ070-072-074-076-180700-
Haskell OK-Muskogee OK-Sequoyah OK-Le Flore OK-
105 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Haskell,
Sequoyah, northern Le Flore and southeastern Muskogee Counties
through 200 AM CDT...

At 104 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 3 miles northwest of Gore to 3 miles south of
Enterprise. Movement was east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Sallisaw...                       Stigler...
Pocola...                         Muldrow...
Roland...                         Spiro...
Arkoma...                         Vian...
Panama...                         Gore...
Webbers Falls...                  Keota...
Mccurtain...                      Bokoshe...
Whitefield...                     Gans...
Cameron...                        Marble City...
Tamaha...                         Moffett...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 283 and
328.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
southeastern and east central Oklahoma. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch
also remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for northwestern Arkansas...
and southeastern, northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3511 9445 3518 9532 3563 9514 3564 9447
      3553 9445 3536 9444
TIME...MOT...LOC 0604Z 267DEG 53KT 3557 9514 3518 9538

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

69

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