Severe Thunderstorm Warning 155, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
231 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon )
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Weak sfc boundary/shear axis across far NE OK and NW AR
this afternoon will be the primary focus for scattered
storms into the evening. Isolated storms will remain possible
elsewhere. Strongest activity may pose a marginally severe wind
threat before activity dissipates this evening with the loss of
daytime heating. Additional storms are expected to develop NW of
the area late tonight and form into a complex as it moves E-SE.
These storms may start impacting parts of far NE OK around
sunrise. Severe wind potential will exist with the leading edge of
the complex.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

The aforementioned complex will continue to move further into E OK
and NW AR tomorrow morning, along with the potential for severe
winds along the leading edge. Some weakening may take place by
late morning, but at a minimum, residual outflow boundaries will
allow for additional convection for the afternoon across SE OK and
WC AR. Severe potential will be higher across far SE OK as any
heating will further destabilize the atmosphere. Most of this
activity should clear the area during the early evening.

An upper level trough diving out of the high plains will push a
cold front towards the area Saturday night. Chances for showers
and storms will increase Saturday night, with the highest chances
across far NE OK and NW AR starting after midnight. The higher
chances will remain across NW AR Sunday as an impulse rotates
through in the W-NW flow aloft. The cold front will clear the area
by late Sunday afternoon or early evening and settle across TX for
the next few days, resulting in cooler temperatures  Monday into
Tuesday. Upper split flow pattern develops next week with a west
to east oriented southern stream over the southern plains. The
frontal boundary to the south looks to lift north as a warm front
around mid week. Several disturbances within faster flow along
with a boundary in the vicinity will result in chances for
isolated to scattered storms for locations along and ahead of the
warm front during that time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Isolated afternoon storms expected across E OK terminals with
scattered to numerous storms forecast nearer the NW AR terminals.
A gradual decrease in coverage is expected after sunset. Late
tonight additional storms will spread into NE OK and continue
eastward through Saturday morning. Away from immediate storm
impacts VFR conditions are expected to prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  87  68  88 /  30  70  50  30
FSM   70  88  67  91 /  30  60  50  50
MLC   68  88  66  91 /  20  60  40  20
BVO   64  85  64  85 /  30  70  50  20
FYV   63  85  63  86 /  30  60  60  60
BYV   63  84  65  84 /  20  60  60  70
MKO   67  87  66  88 /  20  70  50  30
MIO   65  84  65  82 /  30  70  60  40
F10   67  87  66  89 /  30  70  40  20
HHW   69  87  67  91 /  10  60  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
106 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
106 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Primarily far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Afternoon.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Afternoon and again late tonight.

DISCUSSION...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
through early evening. The highest coverage of storms is likely
across far eastern Oklahoma through northwest Arkansas. A few
strong to briefly severe storms will be possible with localized
strong downburst winds the primary hazard. Additional storms will
spread into portions of northeast Oklahoma late tonight. An
isolated strong storm will also be possible with these late
night through early Saturday storms.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY through THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
An area of thunderstorms is likely to be ongoing Saturday
morning with these storms spreading eastward through the day.
A window for severe weather is possible from late morning
through early evening with potential for ongoing storms
to intensify or for new storms to develop. Locations generally
along and south of Interstate 40 have the higher potential for
any severe storms on Saturday.

A cold front will pass on Sunday with additional thunderstorm
chances. The weather pattern becomes more unsettled across
the Southern Plains for next week. One or more days may experience
severe weather potential across portions of eastern Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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