Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
631 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Scattered storms have developed on the moist side of a
surface theta-e gradient from southeast Kansas and
northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas.  With
scattered storms in the favored terrain areas of
west-central Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma.  A
few of the cores have been strong with a fair amount
of smaller hail.  An isolated severe storm is possible
with hail and local microbursts.  This activity
will fade with sunset.  Some patchy fog is possible
toward morning... especially where rain falls this
evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Only minor changes to the pattern are expected on
Wednesday with perhaps the afternoon and evening
convection more restricted to the terrain of
southeast Oklahoma.

An uptick in showers and thunderstorms appears likely
on Thursday as the western tail of a mid-level trough
diving south through the Mississippi Valley brushes
the area with moist and potentially unstable air in place.
Similarly on Friday, perhaps less coverage, scattered showers
and storms will be in the areas as the western fringe of the
cyclonic flow aloft continues to brush the area.

A front appears like it will be forced into or near
the area on Saturday and Saturday night by the western
fringe of the cyclonic flow aloft.  That results in
higher shower and thunderstorm chances.

Later this weekend we will see the beginning of a
pattern shift that brings faster winds aloft over
the region, with the fastest flow likely Tuesday and
Wednesday.  Depending on boundary positions, the
potential for a more organized convective event will
increase.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Afternoon convection has moved away from most of the TAF sites,
with the exception of KRVS. Will include VCTS and TEMPO thunder
mention for that TAF. Otherwise VFR conditions prevail for the
most part. KFYV has consistently had fog, and there was rain at
the airport today, increasing the potential. Thus will insert
TEMPO IFR fog mention for this forecast.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  90  67  92 /  30  10   0  30
FSM   66  92  69  90 /  10  10   0  50
MLC   63  89  64  91 /  20  10   0  30
BVO   61  90  63  91 /  20  10  10  30
FYV   60  89  62  87 /  10  10  10  50
BYV   60  89  64  84 /   0  10  20  50
MKO   63  88  66  89 /  20  10   0  30
MIO   62  89  64  87 /   0  10  10  40
F10   63  87  64  89 /  20  10   0  30
HHW   64  89  66  90 /  30  20   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
453 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
453 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma; Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing...ending this evening.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered afternoon storms will pose a limited risk of damaging
winds and possibly marginally severe hail. The damaging wind and
large hail threat will be pretty localized if it occurs. Storms
will dissipate this evening with the loss of daytime heating.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.
THURSDAY thru SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
After a break on Wednesday, storm chances will return for Thursday
with more widespread storm coverage on into Friday as a frontal
boundary moves into the region. The main threats during this time
will be brief heavy downpours, dangerous lightning, and marginally
severe wind gusts. The potential for more organized thunderstorms
may increase over the weekend as a stronger cold front pushes
into the area from the north.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
706 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

OKZ060-066-067-070-070030-
Tulsa OK-Muskogee OK-Okmulgee OK-Wagoner OK-
706 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Wagoner,
northeastern Okmulgee, northwestern Muskogee and southeastern Tulsa
Counties through 730 PM CDT...

At 706 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Mounds to 4 miles southeast of Haskell.
Movement was south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Broken Arrow...
Bixby...                          Jenks...
Glenpool...                       Haskell...
Bald Hill...                      Stonebluff...
Liberty...                        Jamesville...
Hectorville...                    Leonard...
Choska...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3583 9606 3586 9606 3586 9603 3598 9603
      3604 9599 3583 9556 3565 9561 3580 9607
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 008DEG 7KT 3589 9603 3576 9564

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
711 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 ENE Jenks             36.03N 95.95W
06/06/2023                   Tulsa              OK   Broadcast Media

            twitter photo of tree damage near 91st and
            Delaware in south Tulsa/Jenks area...time
            estimated by radar.

&&

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
711 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

OKZ060-064-070045-
Tulsa OK-Creek OK-
711 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Creek
and south central Tulsa Counties through 745 PM CDT...

At 711 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
southwest of Jenks Riverside Airport. This storm was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Sapulpa...
Jenks...                          Glenpool...
Jenks Riverside Airport...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 209 and 223.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3609 9613 3609 9593 3596 9594 3597 9616
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 012DEG 3KT 3602 9604

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH