Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
258 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Scattered storms have developed on the moist side of a
surface theta-e gradient from southeast Kansas and
northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas.  With
scattered storms in the favored terrain areas of
west-central Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma.  A
few of the cores have been strong with a fair amount
of smaller hail.  An isolated severe storm is possible
with hail and local microbursts.  This activity
will fade with sunset.  Some patchy fog is possible
toward morning... especially where rain falls this
evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Only minor changes to the pattern are expected on
Wednesday with perhaps the afternoon and evening
convection more restricted to the terrain of
southeast Oklahoma.

An uptick in showers and thunderstorms appears likely
on Thursday as the western tail of a mid-level trough
diving south through the Mississippi Valley brushes
the area with moist and potentially unstable air in place.
Similarly on Friday, perhaps less coverage, scattered showers
and storms will be in the areas as the western fringe of the
cyclonic flow aloft continues to brush the area.

A front appears like it will be forced into or near
the area on Saturday and Saturday night by the western
fringe of the cyclonic flow aloft.  That results in
higher shower and thunderstorm chances.

Later this weekend we will see the beginning of a
pattern shift that brings faster winds aloft over
the region, with the fastest flow likely Tuesday and
Wednesday.  Depending on boundary positions, the
potential for a more organized convective event will
increase.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms are possible mainly
between 21z-00z, though coverage is low enough to only include
VCTS at this time. Otherwise, VFR TAF elements will prevail
outside of afternoon storms. Patchy fog development is possible
across NW AR between 08z-12z. For now have retained VFR
vsbys but some MVFR conditions are not out of question within
this time period, mainly at KFYV and KXNA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  90  67  92 /  20  10   0  30
FSM   66  92  69  90 /  10  10   0  50
MLC   63  89  64  91 /  10  10   0  30
BVO   61  90  63  91 /  20  10  10  30
FYV   60  89  62  87 /  10  10  10  50
BYV   60  89  64  84 /   0  10  20  50
MKO   63  88  66  89 /  30  10   0  30
MIO   62  89  64  87 /   0  10  10  40
F10   63  87  64  89 /  30  10   0  30
HHW   64  89  66  90 /  30  20   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...43

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
133 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
133 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas south of a
           line from Pea Ridge to Kingston.
	ONSET...Now... through 9pm.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms will occur in eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas into the evening hours.  Isolated severe
thunderstorms are possible with hail near quarter size and wind
gusts around 65 mph possible in the strongest storms.  This
activity will fade with sunset.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will continue Wednesday, with the
potential for more widespread storm coverage Thursday into Friday
as a frontal boundary moves into the region. The main threats
during this time will be brief heavy downpours, dangerous
lightning, and marginally severe wind gusts. The potential for
more organized thunderstorms may increase over the weekend as a
stronger cold front pushes into the area from the north.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
419 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

OKZ054-062145-
Osage OK-
419 PM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Osage
County through 445 PM CDT...

At 419 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 5 miles
south of Elgin, moving southeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Elgin...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9617 3684 9640 3700 9651
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 318DEG 5KT 3693 9631

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH