Severe Thunderstorm Warning 141, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today)
Issued at 1049 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

Pretty strange upper air pattern in place over the CONUS today.
What is left of a shortwave trough that emanated from the
southwest CONUS in the subtropical jet flow now lies from
southeast CO south and east to southeast OK. This lobe of weak
vorticity is lifting slowly northeast with the bulk of the shower
and storm activity this morning being ahead of this feature. The
latest CAMs suggest that a combination of daytime heating and the
slow approaching and gradually dissipating wave will initiate
scattered to numerous showers and storms this afternoon across
eastern OK and western AR. An isolated severe wind gust is
possible, with pockets of locally heavy rainfall looking more
likely. Coverage should decrease this evening with the loss of
daytime heating.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

Storm activity will quickly wane this evening as somewhat drier
air moves in from the east behind the storm activity. A few storms
could develop again on Sunday, but with diminished coverage and
intensity. For the next few days a rather stagnant pattern will be
in place with an anomalous upper level ridge across the northern
Plains inducing easterly flow through the entire troposphere. This
will result in warm afternoon temperatures each day in the upper
80s to low 90s with humidity levels staying reasonable for this
time of year. Precipitation chances will be fairly low during this
period, though a very isolated pop up afternoon storm could occur
any day.

This pattern will persist for much of next week, though with some
day to day variation as occasional weak shortwave troughs rotate
around the main high pressure area. Ensemble guidance is keying in
on the next feature for next Monday-Tuesday. This would not be a
heavy rain producer, but a slight uptick in PoPs will result. Some
model guidance also pushes some cooler and drier air into the region
as well, so that will be something to watch. otherwise, seasonably
warm and humid weather will return for the mid week period with
perhaps another shortwave trough towards Thursday or Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

The main issue for aviators this period will be storms this
afternoon and into the evening. Coverage is good enough today to
be more aggressive in the TAFs. Used TEMPOs to cover the most
likely time windows inside a prevailing VCTS mention. Coverage
should decrease enough by 03Z or 04Z to remove mention by then.
VFR conditions will prevail outside of storms.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  88  64  89 /  30  20  10  20
FSM   66  92  68  91 /  40  10  10  20
MLC   63  85  62  87 /  30  40  10  20
BVO   61  89  60  89 /  30  20  10  20
FYV   61  89  62  89 /  40  10  10  20
BYV   61  89  63  87 /  20  10  10  20
MKO   64  88  65  87 /  30  20  10  20
MIO   62  89  62  88 /  30  10  10  20
F10   63  85  62  87 /  30  30  10  20
HHW   64  84  65  87 /  20  40  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
140 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-041015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
140 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing...ending this evening.

FLASH FLOOD and HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Far Eastern Oklahoma; Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing...ending this evening.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon over far
eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas will pose a limited severe
wind and hail threat. In addition, locally heavy rainfall from
these slow moving storms could yield some localized flooding.
Storms should begin to die off this evening.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY thru FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Drier air moves in Sunday, with rain chances lowering from today.
However, a low end thunderstorm risk will continue each afternoon through
the entire period. The main threats will be brief heavy rain,
dangerous lightning, and marginally severe hail or wind at times.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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