Wind Advisory 1, NWS Topeka, KS

688 
WWUS73 KTOP 270817
NPWTOP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Topeka KS
217 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

KSZ008-009-020>024-026-034>039-271500-
/O.EXA.KTOP.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-230227T1500Z/
Republic-Washington-Cloud-Clay-Riley-Pottawatomie-Jackson-
Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-Wabaunsee-Shawnee-
Including the cities of Belleville, Washington, Hanover, Clifton,
Linn, Greenleaf, Concordia, Clay Center, Manhattan, Wamego, 
St. Marys, Holton, Valley Falls, Oskaloosa, Perry, McLouth, 
Grantville, Meriden, Nortonville, Minneapolis, Bennington, 
Abilene, Herington, Junction City, Council Grove, Alma, Eskridge,
Maple Hill, Alta Vista, McFarland, Harveyville, Paxico, 
and Topeka
217 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. 

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, north central and 
  northeast Kansas.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM CST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

KSZ040-054>056-058-059-271500-
/O.CON.KTOP.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-230227T1500Z/
Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
Including the cities of Lawrence, Emporia, Osage City, 
Carbondale, Lyndon, Burlingame, Overbrook, Ottawa, Burlington, 
Lebo, and Garnett
217 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...Douglas, Lyon, Osage, Franklin, Coffey and Anderson 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM CST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

247 
WWUS73 KTOP 271445
NPWTOP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Topeka KS
845 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

KSZ008-009-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-271545-
/O.EXP.KTOP.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-230227T1500Z/
Republic-Washington-Cloud-Clay-Riley-Pottawatomie-Jackson-
Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-
Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
Including the cities of Belleville, Washington, Hanover, Clifton,
Linn, Greenleaf, Concordia, Clay Center, Manhattan, Wamego, 
St. Marys, Holton, Valley Falls, Oskaloosa, Perry, McLouth, 
Grantville, Meriden, Nortonville, Minneapolis, Bennington, 
Abilene, Herington, Junction City, Council Grove, Alma, Eskridge,
Maple Hill, Alta Vista, McFarland, Harveyville, Paxico, Topeka, 
Lawrence, Emporia, Osage City, Carbondale, Lyndon, Burlingame, 
Overbrook, Ottawa, Burlington, Lebo, and Garnett
845 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM CST THIS MORNING...

Winds no longer meet advisory criteria so the advisory will be
allowed to expire.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1108 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

Key points:

* Chance for fog, drizzle, and freezing drizzle this morning

* Showers and thunderstorms tonight with severe storms possible

* Strong sustained winds this evening into Monday

Several items of interest over the next 36 hours as a strong upper
low over southern California makes quick progress into the Four
Corners late today and into southern Iowa at dawn Monday. Surface
low pressure over eastern Colorado early this morning leading to
light south to southwest low-level winds in eastern Kansas. Low
cloud has made slow progress north into east-central Kansas where
temperatures are close to freezing. Model soundings are fairly
consistent with moisture deepening over the next several hours under
a strengthening elevated mixed layer. Though ascent looks weak,
moisture depths may be enough for some light drizzle. Will need to
watch temps closely though theta-e advection looks good enough to
keep the freezing drizzle concern low. Some fog is also likely on
the north edge of the stratus as well though it should be rather
brief.

The stratus looks to spread north across much of the area this
morning and may linger into the afternoon, keeping temps somewhat
cooler than earlier expectations. Increasing saturation above the
EML could produce some high-based showers later this afternoon,
but the main precipitation comes this evening to the pre-dawn
hours as convection spreads east-northeast across the region. Main
timing still appears to be in the 01Z-07Z window per CAMs with a
broken line moving through. Instability remains rather meager but
bulk shear over 60 knots and rapid mid-level cooling will support
severe storms, with wind gusts being the main concern with 850 mb
winds around 70 knots in southern areas. These winds picking up
ahead of the storms could bring near-Advisory level speeds in
portions of east-central Kansas this evening though the
persistence and coverage looks small, particularly if the boundary
layer remains cooler as mentioned above. Winds behind the system
still look to push Advisory range, particularly sustained speeds,
though most guidance again keeps speeds too low for much
confidence in an Advisory verifying. Little has changed with
moisture values with this system and expect storms to produce
heavy rains though move through rather quickly to keep the
flooding threat low.

Late Monday through Wednesday bring more tranquil conditions with
modified Pacific surface ridge moving through then another modified
front with a northern Plains system early Wednesday. There remains
some concern for precipitation with the next upper wave moving
mainly over the southern Plains late Wednesday night into Thursday
night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1108 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

Conditions improving to VFR at KMHK shortly and MVFR at KTOP/KFOE.
Low stratus will lift slightly and fog will continue to diminish
this morning. A strong line of thunderstorms is expected to move
through from west to east after 03z this evening. Heavy rain,
lightning and strong winds are expected with this line. Some
hail, generally quarter size or smaller, can't be ruled out.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...65
AVIATION...Jones

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
102 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>039-271915-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-
102 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central
Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected tonight, with very heavy rainfall and
gusty winds. Some wind gusts to 60 mph are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

West to northwest winds sustained around 30 MPH with gusts up to 45
MPH are possible Monday morning and early afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

KSZ040-054>056-058-059-271915-
Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
102 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected tonight, with gusty winds, very heavy
rainfall and some small hail. Some wind gusts to 70 mph are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

West to northwest winds sustained around 30 MPH with gusts up to 45
MPH are possible Monday morning and early afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf