Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
623 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023

A large swing in temperatures is expected over the next week, and
one notable chance for measurable precipitation exists in this
forecast period.

Early this morning, an amplified troughing pattern is seen over the
western CONUS with a ridge in place over the southeastern quadrant
of the country. In between, a southerly 40 kt LLJ existed over
central and northeast Kansas and mesoanalysis was showing around
1000 J/kg of elevated instability. There remains a signal from
models of some isentropic ascent over central and north-central KS
for a few hours this morning. Have maintained 15 percent, slight
chance POPs for a small area where an isolated storm or two may
briefly develop. Forecast soundings, however, show a fairly dry
atmosphere below 700 mb, which will likely limit much in the way of
anything measurable. Beyond this morning, another hot and windy day
is expected with temperatures forecast to remain near the 75th
percentile of NBM guidance, and again making a run at records this
afternoon (see the climate section below) as the warm southerly flow
continues.

Not a lot changes with the pattern over the central US until Tuesday
when the western trough moves over the Rockies and into the High
Plains. At that time, a surface frontal boundary will work across
western sections of Nebraska and Kansas. POPs increase from west to
east across the area in the vicinity of the boundary on Tuesday, and
especially Tuesday evening and night. The front should clear the
area to the east by Wednesday afternoon. The NBM, however, hangs
onto POPs in eastern KS through most of the day Thursday, likely due
in part to the GFS solution lingering the trough axis and associated
vorticity over the area through that timeframe.

Precipitation, cloud cover, and some post-frontal CAA will allow
temperatures to be cooler through the middle of next week with highs
mainly in the 70s. Sweater weather is coming with even cooler
conditions anticipated by next weekend as a secondary trough axis
pivots around the upper low over Canada. That will send another cold
front our way with a Canadian based surface ridge building into the
region behind it on Saturday and Sunday. Some locations in northern
KS could dip into the upper 30s by next Sunday morning with highs
only in the 60s through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023

VFR prevails for the 12Z TAF period. South winds will increase
after sunrise with gusts to around 25 kts expected today.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023

The forecast remains fairly consistent for fire weather conditions
this weekend. Gusty south winds of 25 to 35 MPH are expected today
as RH values fall into the 30 to 40 percent range. Based on fuels
still showing some green and not completely dried out, this
should cause rangeland fire danger to be in the high category
across north central KS and the moderate category for northeast
and east central KS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Updated at 348 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023

High Temperature Records

                  Forecast          Record (Year)

Saturday (9/30)
Topeka              94                 97 (1938)
Concordia           96                 95 (1994)

Sunday (10/01)
Topeka              92                 95 (1976)
Concordia           92                 94 (2002)

Monday (10/02)
Topeka              90                 95 (1963)
Concordia           90                 95 (1938)

Warm Low Temperature Records

                  Forecast          Record (Year)

Saturday (9/30)
Topeka              70                 76 (2019)
Concordia           72                 76 (2019)

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey
FIRE WEATHER...Teefey
CLIMATE...Flanagan/Teefey

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
357 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023

KSZ008>010-020>022-034>037-010900-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Cloud-Clay-Riley-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-
Morris-
357 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central, north central and
northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

An isolated storm or two is possible this morning. Lightning will be
the main hazard of concern.

Gusty south winds and lower relative humidity are expected to create
elevated fire danger across north central Kansas this afternoon. Be
careful with any outdoor flames.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Sunday as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

KSZ011-012-023-024-026-038>040-054>056-058-059-010900-
Nemaha-Brown-Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Wabaunsee-Shawnee-
Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
357 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Kansas and
northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
749 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023

KSZ008-009-301315-
Republic-Washington-
749 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Republic and west central Washington Counties through 815 AM CDT...

At 749 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Agenda, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects
         is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cuba and Agenda.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3978 9718 3965 9739 3965 9756 3988 9744
TIME...MOT...LOC 1249Z 214DEG 16KT 3969 9745

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
810 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023

KSZ009-301345-
Washington-
810 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Washington County through 845 AM CDT...

At 809 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles southwest of Haddam, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects
         is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Morrowville and Haddam.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9719 3990 9701 3978 9727 3982 9737
      3990 9737 4000 9732
TIME...MOT...LOC 1309Z 216DEG 18KT 3979 9734

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH