Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1235 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue May 9 2023

Forecast Highlights:

-Thunderstorms return to the forecast today and tonight.

-A brief break in storm chances is forecast midweek before more
 t-storms arrives later in the week.

-Severe weather will be possible today and again Thursday.

Forecast Discussion:

Today's early morning atmospheric pattern across the CONUS consists
of a mid-level ridge over the southern and southeastern US, and more
of a troughing pattern off the west coast. Several shortwaves were
evident on water vapor imagery and in H7 analysis within
southwesterly flow over the Pacific Northwest and northern High
Plains. The surface boundary that pushed southeast of the CWA
yesterday remains to our south early today. Surface analysis
reveals dew points in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees with south
winds in eastern OK, and east-northeast winds with dew points in
the 50s and low 60s in southern KS. The main challenge for this
forecast package is chances, timing and location of thunderstorms
the next few days, and whether severe weather will occur with each
round of rain.

East-southeasterly winds will help draw in the higher theta-e air
mass to our south into central KS as the surface boundary moves
northward today. Instability will build near and south of the
front with models showing between 2000 and 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE
through central and possibly north-central KS by this afternoon.
Some initial showers and thunderstorms could develop this morning
where isentropic ascent becomes more pronounced in the southern
and southwestern CWA. A few CAMs then show development northwest
of the area midday, with storms tracking southeast. Given growing
instability and effective bulk shear likely around 40 kts, large
hail and damaging wind will be possibilities with storms near the
boundary this afternoon. Ongoing convection could continue into
this evening, especially if storms are able to grow upscale into
more of an MCS structure.

POPs on Wednesday become a little more uncertain and so are a little
lower. HREF composite reflectivity shows better chances over the
High Plains of KS as a negatively tilted trough moves out of the
Desert Southwest. Closer to home, a warm and humid air mass will
remain in place with that surface boundary possibly still close
by. Thus, have maintained a slight chance for POPs. Chances look
to increase again on Thursday as a shortwave moves over the area
and a surface low deepens over eastern CO/western KS. A dryline
looks to develop in central KS by the evening with a warm and
unstable air mass east of it. Conditions will support another
round of potential severe weather, especially by the evening and
as the LLJ increases into the night.

Long range models show a general upper level troughing pattern
remaining in place across the western US into the upcoming weekend.
NBM has at least slight chances POPs during this timeframe with
more small scale details hopefully becoming more obvious as we
get closer to the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

The primary hazard for this afternoon is a line of storms moving
from west to east across the terminal sites. Expect winds to
change abruptly to the WNW with gusts possibly to severe levels
for a brief period of time as the storms move through. Have
maintained TEMPO groups for most likely timing of storms. Outside
of this there will likely be a period of lingering low clouds
with possible hit or miss storms for a few hours into this evening
behind the main line.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Drake

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
319 AM CDT Tue May 9 2023

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-100830-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
319 AM CDT Tue May 9 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central
Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible this morning in southeastern and central
Kansas with chances increasing in northeastern portions of the state
by midday. A few storms will be capable of large hail and damaging
wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will again be possible on Thursday,
with chances for storms increasing during the afternoon and evening
hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

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