Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1238 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

Forecast Highlights:

-Two rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to impact
portions of the area this evening and tonight.

-Elevated fire danger conditions will again be in place late this
week and this weekend.

-Freezing temperatures remain in the forecast this weekend. Record
lows are possible.

Forecast Discussion:

We are anticipating two rounds of impactful weather this evening and
tonight. At 19Z (2 PM CDT), a deep upper low was spinning over far
eastern Montana with a shortwave trough noted on its southern
periphery over the Colorado Rockies. Surface analysis shows low
pressure stretched across central Kansas with a dryline extending
southward into Oklahoma and Texas. Strong southerly flow has brought
dew points up to around 60 degrees across eastern Kansas.
Mesoanalysis shows between 1500 and 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE with a cap
still in place, confirmed by a special 20Z sounding launched from
Topeka.

The first round of storms is expected to impact portions of northern
Kansas this evening. Convective initiation could begin as early as
23Z north of I-70 with better forcing near the low. CAMs show a
few supercell storms developing within an environment consisting
of nearly 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and about 30 kts of effective bulk
wind shear. Wind shear will increase as a strong LLJ develops into
tonight. Storms in this environment will be capable of very large
hail and damaging wind gusts. There appears to be a brief window
early on when a few tornadoes could occur as shear increases,
before SBCIN increases too rapidly. These storms will move
northeast into Nebraska late this evening.

The second round of storms is then expected to develop around
midnight in northern and north-central KS as the aforementioned
shortwave trough moves over central Nebraska. Convective mode could
be less organized and more linear, with CAMs showing more of a
widespread cluster of storms moving eastward through the CWA
overnight. A 65+ kt LLJ will keep low level shear parameters
sufficient for large hail and damaging wind gusts. Rainfall
amounts could exceed 1.0 inch in far northeast KS - the area most
likely to be affected by both rounds.

Strong winds ahead of and behind a cold front tonight have also
prompted the need for a Wind Advisory, which has been extended and
expanded. Strong winds outside of thunderstorms could gust to 50
mph, finally relaxing by tomorrow morning as winds shift to the
northwest behind the boundary.

Beyond today's system, elevated fire danger will return in central
KS tomorrow through Saturday. That area is less likely to see
significant rainfall tonight and will experience low afternoon
humidities and continued breezy winds through the start of the
weekend. Much cooler weather is then in store this weekend. Highs
on Saturday and Sunday will range from the 50s on Saturday to
around 60 degrees on Sunday. Record low temperatures are forecast
Sunday morning with lows in the upper 20s to near 30 degrees. A
freeze warning is looking likely at that time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

Additional showers and storms are expected to impact terminals
overnight with reduced visibility and MVFR cigs accompanying
storms. Uncertainty remains in how strong these storms will as
they progress eastward with KMHK having the best chance at seeing
strong wind gusts as the line moves through. Winds shift to the
west-northwest behind the front with VFR conditions returning
after sunrise.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ026-035>040-
054>056-058-059.

&&

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Flanagan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
310 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

KSZ026-035>040-054>056-058-059-202015-
Jefferson-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-
Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
310 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT
THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central
Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A Wind Advisory is in effect from 7PM this evening until 7AM
Thursday morning. South winds are forecast to gust up to 50 MPH.

Severe thunderstorms are possible across the area into the overnight
hours. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main hazards.
Locally heavy rainfall could also occur with storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Temperatures near to just below freezing are forecast this weekend
which could damage sensitive vegetation.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

KSZ008>012-020>024-034-202015-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Ottawa-
310 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Kansas and
northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are possible across the area late this
afternoon and again tonight. Large hail and damaging winds will be
the main hazards with a few tornadoes also possible this evening.
Locally heavy rainfall could also occur with storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Temperatures near to just below freezing are forecast this weekend
which could damage sensitive vegetation.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
149 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

KSZ011-012-023-024-026-039-040-200715-
Shawnee-Pottawatomie-Jefferson-Douglas-Brown-Jackson-Nemaha-
149 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Jefferson, northern
Shawnee, northeastern Douglas, northeastern Pottawatomie, Nemaha,
Jackson and Brown Counties through 215 AM CDT...

At 149 AM CDT, trained weather spotters reported strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from near Centralia to 3 miles northeast of
Lawrence. Movement was east at 90 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Northeastern Topeka, northern Lawrence, Holton, Hiawatha, Sabetha,
Seneca, Horton, Valley Falls, Oskaloosa, St. Marys, Perry, McLouth,
Meriden, Hoyt, Ozawkie, Nortonville, Lecompton, Winchester, Centralia
and Wetmore.

This includes Kansas Turnpike near mile marker 206.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these storms pass.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
northeastern and east central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3919 9610 4000 9614 4000 9534 3965 9534
      3965 9556 3942 9557 3942 9518 3901 9519
      3897 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 0649Z 256DEG 78KT 3972 9610 3898 9520

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Jones

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
156 AM CDT THU APR 20 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 AM     TSTM WND GST     GLASCO                  39.36N 97.84W
04/20/2023  E60 MPH          CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

FLANAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
206 AM CDT THU APR 20 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0203 AM     TSTM WND GST     CLYDE                   39.59N 97.40W
04/20/2023  E60 MPH          CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

FLANAGAN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
234 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

KSZ023-024-026-038>040-055-056-058-200800-
Coffey-Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Pottawatomie-Jefferson-Douglas-Franklin-
Jackson-Osage-
234 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Franklin, Jefferson,
Shawnee, Douglas, northeastern Wabaunsee, Osage, eastern
Pottawatomie, Jackson and northeastern Coffey Counties through 300 AM
CDT...

At 234 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Delia to near Williamsburg. Movement was east
at 65 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Topeka, Lawrence, Ottawa, Baldwin City, Holton, Carbondale, Valley
Falls, Rossville, Oskaloosa, Tecumseh, Eudora, St. Marys, Richland,
Wellsville, Dover, Silver Lake, Auburn, Overbrook, Lyndon and
Centropolis.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 158 and 198.
 Interstate 70 between mile markers 343 and 355.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 162 and 205.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
northeastern and east central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3848 9507 3839 9566 3956 9627 3958 9556
      3942 9557 3942 9518 3897 9519 3895 9509
      3899 9506 3898 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 0734Z 249DEG 58KT 3924 9596 3846 9545

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Jones

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
254 AM CDT THU APR 20 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0214 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CLAY CENTER             39.38N 97.12W
04/20/2023                   CLAY               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET DIAMETER TREE LIMBS
            DOWN ALONG WITH SNAPPED TREES AND DOWNED
            POWER LINES IN CLAY CENTER. POSSIBLE TORNADO
            DAMAGE.

&&

FLANAGAN

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