Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
242 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Forecast Highlights:

-Isolated to scattered thunderstorm coverage is expected this
afternoon and early this evening, especially in the eastern CWA.

-Storm chances remain in the forecast each afternoon through the
rest of the workweek, possibly beyond.

Forecast Discussion:

Early this afternoon, mesoanalysis showed the remnants of an earlier
MCV as a weak wind shift/trough at H7 and H5 and a subtle vort
max over northeast KS. Instability had been building through the
day with between 2,000 and 3,000 J/kg of SBCAPE by 19Z. The Day
Cloud Phase RGB showed a diurnal cu field quickly developing with
glaciation of cloud tops occurring in many spots. By 19Z isolated
storms with robust updrafts had begun to develop. While CAMs
remain inconsistent with one another and from run-to-run, the
weak vort max and subtle mid-level trough are likely to aid in
continued storm development with scattered coverage expected later
this afternoon into the early evening hours, especially for the
eastern half of the CWA. Wind shear parameters remain weak with
light atmospheric flow so pulse storms types are anticipated.
Forecast sounding still show an inverted V profile in the lower
levels, indicating a damaging wind gust potential with strong
downdrafts. Heavy rainfall will also be possible given
climatologically high pwats values.

A weakening trend with storms should occur as the sun sets, at which
time attention turns to western KS where a complex of storms is
expected to develop. Models show that complex moving eastward
through the night. A lack of large scale forcing and decreasing
instability could cause storms to weaken by the time they reach
north-central KS. However, outflow from dissipating storms could
create enough lift to maintain some rain and possibly allow for
development into eastern KS by early tomorrow morning.

A series of mid-level shortwave troughs then look to move through
the weak flow aloft over the Plains during the next several days,
allowing for some enhancement in ascent at times. Meanwhile, a
warm, moist and unstable air mass should stay in place during over
the CWA. This set up will continue to allow for chances of storms
each afternoon through the rest of the week. Severe storms are
still not be favored given weak shear, but lightning and isolated
heavy rainfall potential will exist.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Thunderstorm chances remain the greatest challenge for the TAFs,
especially at the Topeka terminals with scattered convection
possible across eastern KS later today. For now, have maintained
a mention of VCTS for a few hours this afternoon. Amendments will
be made as needed if storms develop closer to the airports.
Otherwise, VFR is expected at all sites into tonight. A batch of
storms could then approach from the west overnight, but confidence
is not high in whether that activity will make it to TAF sites.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
252 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-312000-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
252 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central
Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will occur this afternoon and early this
evening. Storms will be capable of producing small hail, strong
wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall. Storms should weaken late this
evening.

A few more storms could develop overnight and early tomorrow morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

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