Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WGUS73 KTOP 250833 RRA
FFSTOP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
333 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023

KSC111-139-251130-
/O.CON.KTOP.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-231025T1130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lyon KS-Osage KS-
333 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 AM CDT THIS 
MORNING FOR NORTHEASTERN LYON AND SOUTHWESTERN OSAGE COUNTIES...

At 333 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 3 and 8 inches of rain have 
fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Osage City, Lyndon and Reading.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3846 9595 3854 9604 3870 9572 3861 9564

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1247 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

Key Messages

- Widespread rain and isolated thunder are expected to impact
portions of east central Kansas late this afternoon into the evening
period.  Locally heavy rainfall is the main concern.

- After a brief reprieve in showers tomorrow afternoon, additional
precip is possible with highest probs towards far eastern Kansas
Wednesday evening.

- Potential for wintry precip Saturday evening?

- Freezing temps are on the way this weekend into early next week.

Potent upper trough settles across Baja California this afternoon
while ample warm and moist air continues to stream northward through
the column into the southern and central plains.  Regionally, upper
vort max associated with a swath of light to moderate rain showers
observed in southeast KS will lift north and east during the
afternoon and early evening hours.  All short term guidance and
forecast soundings point to the potential for up to a few inches of
rainfall across areas south and east of the KS turnpike.  Forecast
soundings on the RAP/HRRR exhibit PWAT values up to 1.9 inches,
surpassing the record for today and well above climatology for this
time of year.  A warm cloud depth layer up to 13 kft coinciding with
the strong moisture transport vectors and veering low level jet
signal training showers (some heavy at times) with embedded
thunder likely (70-90%) tonight. Unfortunately much of northeast
and north central areas are north of the optimal lift and moisture
transport with only seeing less than 0.5 inches through Wednesday
morning whereas much of east central Kansas could see 1-3 inches.
Given that 1 hour FFG is around 2.5 inches for this area, do not
expect flash flooding concerns, however could see some isolated
occurrences in low lying areas or areas prone to flooding.

The first wave exits with a break in precip Wednesday afternoon.
Skies remain mostly cloudy with mild and humid conditions in the low
70s. The main upper low ejects through the central plains Wednesday
evening, developing another swath of moderate to heavy rain within
the region.  Latest model trends have shifted the highest rainfall
amounts a tad further south towards far southeast KS so confidence
in rainfall amounts are somewhat uncertain and highly dependent
on the upper low track. And dependent upon rainfall amounts
tonight, the risk for flooding may increase Wednesday evening if
rainfall amounts trend upwards.

After the upper low exits the region, a strong cold front surges
southward Thursday evening into Friday, dropping temps from the 70s
in the morning to the upper 40s and low 50s by late afternoon. A
longwave upper trough enters the CONUS by late week, amplifying
mid-level perturbations and associated precip this weekend.
Deterministic guidance is fairly similar in developing widespread
QPF Sat evening- Sunday with wide differences in temp profiles and
overall precip type. Further north towards the NE border, cannot
rule a period of rain transitioning to sleet and/or light snow by
Sunday morning as the 10th-75th NBM percentiles are at or below
freezing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023

Complex aviation forecast this period. Most RA and TS remains
south of terminals overnight. IFR cigs should dominate the overnight
period, although a hole in stratus near KMHK is noted in satellite.
Think this fills in with stratus or fog within the next couple of
hours. Uncertainty remains in how cigs progress through the day
Wed. Think cigs eventually lift to MVFR before another round of
rain and storms build in during the late afternoon and evening.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Updated at 358 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

Record and forecast highest minimum temperatures:

Tuesday, October 24:

City                  Forecast                Record(Year)

Topeka  			  66 				      70(2012)
Concordia 			  64 				      60(1956)

Wednesday, October 25:

City                  Forecast                Record(Year)

Topeka 				  65 					  63(1939)
Concordia 			  62 					  61(1902)

Thursday, October 26:

City                  Forecast                Record(Year)

Topeka 				  63 					  61(1900,1989,2004)
Concordia			  59 					  60(1985)

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...22
AVIATION...Flanagan
CLIMATE...65

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
329 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-252030-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
329 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central
Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible today and tonight. Severe
weather is not expected. Locally heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is
possible for portions of east central Kansas tonight through
Wednesday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf