Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Great Falls, MT

128 
WWUS85 KTFX 170814
RFWTFX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
214 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023

MTZ112-180300-
/O.EXA.KTFX.FW.A.0005.230818T1600Z-230819T0300Z/
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0003.230817T1800Z-230818T0300Z/
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
214 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT
THIS EVENING FOR HOT TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR HOT TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112...

The National Weather Service in Great Falls has issued a Fire
Weather Watch for hot temperatures, gusty winds, and low relative
humidity, which is in effect from Friday morning through Friday
evening. The Red Flag Warning remains in effect for today.

* AFFECTED AREA...Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern 
  Pondera/Liberty.

* TEMPERATURES...Today, in the 90s to near 100 degrees. Friday, in
  the 80s to lower 90s.

* WINDS...Today, west 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Friday,  
  west 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...Today, as low as 13 percent. Friday, as low
  as 19 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any new fire starts could be difficult to contain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of 
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are possible. A combination of gusty winds, low relative
humidity, and warm temperatures will create high fire growth
potential.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Fire Weather Watch.

&&

$$

MTZ114-180300-
/O.EXT.KTFX.FW.A.0005.230818T1600Z-230819T0300Z/
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-
214 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING FOR HOT TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 114...

* AFFECTED AREA...Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain 
  District-Rocky Mountain Front.

* TEMPERATURES...In the 80s to lower 90s.

* WINDS...West 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 18 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any new fire starts could be difficult to contain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are possible. A combination of gusty winds, low relative humidity,
and warm temperatures will create high fire growth potential.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Fire Weather Watch.

&&

$$

MTZ113-115-117-180300-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.A.0005.230818T1600Z-230819T0300Z/
Hill and Blaine Counties-Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
214 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR HOT TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 113, 115, AND 117...

* AFFECTED AREA...Hill and Blaine Counties, Chouteau and Fergus 
  Counties and Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National 
  Forest Areas.

* TEMPERATURES...In the 90s to near 100 degrees.

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 16 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any new fire starts could be difficult to contain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are possible. A combination of gusty winds, low relative humidity,
and warm temperatures will create high fire growth potential.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Fire Weather Watch.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

275 
WWUS85 KTFX 171753
RFWTFX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1153 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023

MTZ112-180900-
/O.CAN.KTFX.FW.A.0005.230818T1600Z-230819T0300Z/
/O.EXT.KTFX.FW.W.0003.230817T1800Z-230819T0300Z/
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
1153 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR HOT
TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 112...

The National Weather Service in Great Falls has cancelled the Fire
Weather Watch.

* AFFECTED AREA...Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern 
  Pondera/Liberty.

* TEMPERATURES...Today, in the 90s to near 100 degrees. Friday, in
  the 80s to lower 90s.

* WINDS...Today, west 15 to 25 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph. 
  Friday, west 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...Today, as low as 13 percent, with poor
  moisture recovery tonight. Friday, as low as 19 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any new fire starts could be difficult to contain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of 
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

MTZ113>115-117-180900-
/O.UPG.KTFX.FW.A.0005.230818T1600Z-230819T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KTFX.FW.W.0004.230818T1600Z-230819T0300Z/
Hill and Blaine Counties-
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
1153 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR
HOT TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 113, 114, 115, AND 117...

The National Weather Service in Great Falls has issued a Red Flag
Warning for hot temperatures, gusty winds, and low relative
humidity, which is in effect from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday. The
Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect.

* AFFECTED AREA...Hill and Blaine Counties, Lewis and Clark 
  National Forest Rocky Mountain District-Rocky Mountain Front, 
  Chouteau and Fergus Counties and Central and Eastern Lewis and 
  Clark National Forest Areas.

* TEMPERATURES...In the mid-80s to near 100 degrees.

* WINDS...West 15 to 30 mph, with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any new fire starts could be difficult to contain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of 
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

578 
WWUS85 KTFX 180146
RFWTFX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
746 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023

MTZ112-181200-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-230819T0300Z/
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
746 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR
HOT TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 112...

* AFFECTED AREA...Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern 
  Pondera/Liberty.

* TEMPERATURES...In the 80s to lower 90s Friday.

* WINDS...West 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph Friday.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 19 percent Friday. Poor overnight
  recovery tonight.

* IMPACTS...Any new fire starts could be difficult to contain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

MTZ113>115-117-181200-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0004.230818T1600Z-230819T0300Z/
Hill and Blaine Counties-
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
746 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT
FRIDAY FOR HOT TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 113, 114, 115, AND 117...

* AFFECTED AREA...Hill and Blaine Counties, Lewis and Clark 
  National Forest Rocky Mountain District-Rocky Mountain Front, 
  Chouteau and Fergus Counties and Central and Eastern Lewis and 
  Clark National Forest Areas.

* TEMPERATURES...In the mid-80s to near 100 degrees.

* WINDS...West 15 to 30 mph, with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any new fire starts could be difficult to contain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

024 
WWUS85 KTFX 180811
RFWTFX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
211 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023

MTZ116-118-182300-
/O.EXA.KTFX.FW.W.0004.230818T1600Z-230819T0300Z/
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest-
211 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT
THIS EVENING FOR HOT TEMPERATURES, THUNDERSTORMS, GUSTY WINDS, AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 116 AND 118...

The National Weather Service in Great Falls has issued a Red Flag
Warning for hot temperatures, thunderstorms, gusty winds, and low 
relative humidity, which is in effect from 10 AM this morning to 9 
PM MDT this evening.

* AFFECTED AREA...Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National 
  Forest and Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena 
  National Forest.

* TEMPERATURES...In the mid 90s.

* WINDS...West 20 to 30 mph, with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any new fire starts could be difficult to contain.

Additional details...There is the potential for thunderstorms late
this afternoon and early this evening. Some of these storms will 
produce strong wind gusts and lightning with little rainfall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of 
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

MTZ112-182300-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-230819T0300Z/
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
211 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR HOT TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND A
WIND SHIFT FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112...

* AFFECTED AREA...Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern 
  Pondera/Liberty.

* TEMPERATURES...Around 90.

* WINDS...West 35 to 45 mph, with gusts up to 60 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 17 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any new fire starts could be difficult to contain.

Additional details...A wind shift to the north will occur this
evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

MTZ113>115-117-182300-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0004.230818T1600Z-230819T0300Z/
Hill and Blaine Counties-
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
211 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR HOT TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, LOW 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND A WIND SHIFT FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 113, 
114, 115, AND 117...

* AFFECTED AREA...Hill and Blaine Counties, Lewis and Clark 
  National Forest Rocky Mountain District-Rocky Mountain Front, 
  Chouteau and Fergus Counties and Central and Eastern Lewis and 
  Clark National Forest Areas.

* TEMPERATURES...In the mid to upper 90s.

* WINDS...West 25 to 35 mph, with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any new fire starts could be difficult to contain.

Additional details...A wind shift to the north will occur this
evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

921 
WWUS85 KTFX 181844
RFWTFX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1244 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023

MTZ112-190300-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-230819T0300Z/
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
1244 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR HOT TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND A
WIND SHIFT FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112...

* AFFECTED AREA...Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern 
  Pondera/Liberty.

* TEMPERATURES...In the 80s to low 90s.

* WINDS...West 30 to 40 mph, with gusts up to 60 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 17 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any new fire starts could be difficult to contain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

MTZ113>115-117-190300-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-230819T0300Z/
Hill and Blaine Counties-
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
1244 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR HOT TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND A
WIND SHIFT FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 113, 114, 115, AND 117...

* AFFECTED AREA...Hill and Blaine Counties, Lewis and Clark 
  National Forest Rocky Mountain District-Rocky Mountain Front, 
  Chouteau and Fergus Counties and Central and Eastern Lewis and 
  Clark National Forest Areas.

* TEMPERATURES...In the 90s to near 100 degrees.

* WINDS...West 25 to 35 mph, with gusts up to 55 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any new fire starts could be difficult to contain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

MTZ116-118-190300-
/O.CON.KTFX.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-230819T0300Z/
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest-
1244 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR HOT TEMPERATURES, THUNDERSTORMS, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 116 AND 118...

* AFFECTED AREA...Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National 
  Forest and Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena 
  National Forest.

* TEMPERATURES...In the mid-80s to mid-90s.

* WINDS...West 25 to 35 mph, with gusts up to 50 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 18 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any new fire starts could be difficult to contain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

120 
WWUS85 KTFX 190241
RFWTFX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
841 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023

MTZ112-190345-
/O.EXP.KTFX.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-230819T0300Z/
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
841 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR HOT 
TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND A WIND SHIFT 
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 112...

Relative humidity continues to rise over the warned area and the 
Red Flag Warning will expire at 9 PM MDT.

$$

MTZ113>115-117-190345-
/O.EXP.KTFX.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-230819T0300Z/
Hill and Blaine Counties-
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
841 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR HOT 
TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND A WIND SHIFT 
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 113, 114, 115, AND 117...

Relative humidity continues to rise over the warned area and the 
Red Flag Warning will expire at 9 PM MDT; however, note that a 
gusty northerly wind shift will continue to move southward through 
midnight tonight. 

$$

MTZ116-118-190345-
/O.EXP.KTFX.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-230819T0300Z/
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National Forest-
841 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR HOT 
TEMPERATURES, THUNDERSTORMS, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 116 AND 118...

Relative humidity continues to rise over the warned area and the 
Red Flag Warning will expire at 9 PM MDT.

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1119 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2023

...Aviation Section Updated...

.SYNOPSIS...

A dry surface front moves southward across central Montana, this
morning, favoring gusty northerly winds. Today's low elevation
high temperatures range in the 80s across most of north central
and central Montana, while most of the low elevations of the
southwest portion of the state experience highs in the 90s to low
100s. Tomorrow will be the warmest day of the week with widespread
highs in the 90s to low 100s and gusty westerly winds.

&&

.Update...

No morning update is planned as the on-going forecast is handling
the current situation well across Southwest through North Central
Montana. A "cold" front, which will only glance portions of the
CWA, has moved south to the Central Montana plain and mountain
interface as of 9AM MDT where it is expected to stall given a lack
of strong cold air advection behind it (the front) and the
strongest pressure rises translating further southeast over the
CMR and Fort Peck regions. This "cold" front will bring slightly
cooler temperatures (as compared to Tuesday) to the plains of
North Central and Central Montana today, with highs generally
ranging from the mid-80s to near 90 degrees. High temperatures
south of the aforementioned front will be hot once again today,
with most lower elevations reaching the 90s to near 100 degrees.
Otherwise, expect hazy and smoky conditions across the CWA today,
with the thickest haze/smoke expected southwest of a Browning to
Kings Hill Pass line. - Moldan

&&

.AVIATION...
1119 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2023 (16/12Z TAF Period)

VFR conditions prevail across all terminals under mostly clear
skies; however, slantwise visibility will be reduced due to the
ongoing wildfire smoke and haze. Expect worst near-surface
visibility during the overnight hours given the setup of an
inversion and may cause some mountain obscuration at times. Surface
winds at all terminals remain light and variable through the early
portion of the TAF period, briefly shifting predominately
northeasterly during the afternoon before settling southwesterly
toward the end of the period. Afternoon temperatures across
Southwest Montana will be hot, with temperatures ranging in the
upper 90s, and may cause high density altitude issues. - Pierce

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Overall, hot temperatures are expected across north central and
southwest Montana for much of today. A dry front passes from
north to south, this morning. The passage of this cold front
shifts gusty winds more northerly over the plains, but slightly
cooler temperatures and slightly higher relative humidity will
ease fire weather conditions.

However, westerly winds will increase across the entire area on
Thursday, bringing a return of hot and very dry conditions to the
plains. The overall very warm and dry conditions over this period
will likely help decrease the moisture in finer fuels. Most lower
elevation locations will have a prolonged daytime period of less
than 20 percent relative humidity with a more persistent and
widespread 15 to 25 mph sustained wind gusting to 35 mph at times
over the plains. This has been fairly consistent over multiple
forecast model runs; however, given the decrease in winds in the
latest blended model guidance, opted to trim the fire weather
watch to just zone 112.

Probabilistic guidance has increased the winds quite a bit on
Friday, but current forecasts have temperatures cooling, only
slightly, with afternoon humidity not quite as low as on
Thursday. We continue to monitor this situation for possible
further fire weather highlights.
-Coulston/Pierce/Fogleman

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 518 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2023/

Note: The forecast area of responsibility for the National Weather
Service Great Falls Weather Forecast Office includes north
central, central and southwest Montana.

This morning, a dry cold front has entered the northern border of
The Treasure State and progresses southward across the region.
This front is attended by a northerly wind shift and gusty winds.
Behind this front, some slightly cooler temperatures abound across
north central and central Montana where low elevation highs,
generally range in the 80s. Southwest Montana continues hotter and
drier with a greater than 90% chance of most low elevation high
temperatures exceeding 90 degrees. Some locations of the southwest
reach into the low 100s, today.

Tomorrow, winds take a westerly shift and become gusty. The National
Blend of Models (NBM) offers an ensemble solution of a 79% chance of
maximum wind speeds reaching 25 MPH, tomorrow evening, in the Cut
Bank area. There is a 90% to 100% chance of low elevation high
temperatures ranging in the 90s to low 100s, with minimum Relative
Humidity (RH) values ranging in the teens. Fire weather concerns are
elevated. As such, a Fire Weather Watch is in place from noon to
midnight. If temporal and spacial coverage of fire weather criteria
winds warrants, higher level fire weather headlines will be issued.
Considering the forecast high temperatures, as well as, overnight
lows that remain warm (in the 60s), a Heat Advisory is in place, as
well. For more details on both of these headlines, please, see the
WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES section, below.

Temperatures look to cool, just slightly, on Friday, and as we
approach the weekend ahead, weather becomes more active, with
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms included in the
forecast.
- Fogleman

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  88  60 100  67 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  86  56  97  63 /   0   0   0   0
HLN 100  62 102  67 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  96  57  99  62 /   0   0   0  10
WYS  85  45  86  52 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  91  55  94  58 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  87  57 102  65 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  85  57  96  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern
Pondera/Liberty.

Heat Advisory from noon Thursday to midnight MDT Thursday night
for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Canyon Ferry Area-
Cascade County below 5000ft-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and
Central Pondera-Eastern Pondera and Eastern Teton-Eastern Toole
and Liberty-Fergus County below 4500ft-Gates of the Mountains-
Helena Valley-Hill County-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-
Northern Blaine County-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains-
Western and Central Chouteau County.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls