High Wind Warning 21, NWS Great Falls, MT

344 
WWUS75 KTFX 300412
NPWTFX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1012 PM MDT Tue Aug 29 2023

MTZ302-303-308-301100-
/O.CON.KTFX.HW.W.0021.230830T1200Z-230831T1800Z/
Northern High Plains-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central
Pondera-Southern High Plains-
Including the following locations: Browning, Heart Butte,
Dupuyer, Cut Bank, Ethridge, Santa Rita, Bynum, Choteau, and
Pendroy
1012 PM MDT Tue Aug 29 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON 
MDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected.

* WHERE...Rocky Mountain Front and the High Plains

* WHEN...From 6 AM Wednesday to Noon MDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris and unsecured items. 
  Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around 
or damaged by the wind.

&&

$$

MTZ312-313-301100-
/O.CON.KTFX.HW.W.0021.230830T1600Z-230831T1800Z/
Cascade County below 5000ft-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-
Including the following locations: Great Falls, Raynesford,
Geyser, Stanford, Windham, Benchland, Hobson, and Moccasin
1012 PM MDT Tue Aug 29 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON 
MDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected.

* WHERE...Cascade County below 5000ft and Judith Basin County and 
  Judith Gap.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Wednesday to Noon MDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris and unsecured items. 
  Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around 
or damaged by the wind.

&&

$$

Fogleman

317 
WWUS75 KTFX 301849
NPWTFX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1249 PM MDT Wed Aug 30 2023

MTZ302-303-308-311200-
/O.CON.KTFX.HW.W.0021.000000T0000Z-230831T1800Z/
Northern High Plains-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central
Pondera-Southern High Plains-
Including the following locations: Browning, Heart Butte,
Dupuyer, Cut Bank, Ethridge, Santa Rita, Bynum, Choteau, and
Pendroy
1249 PM MDT Wed Aug 30 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 30 to 40 mph, with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera 
  Counties, and the Northern and Southern High Plains adjacent to 
  the Rocky Mountain Front.

* WHEN...Until Noon MDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris and unsecured items. 
  Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around 
or damaged by the wind.

&&

$$

MTZ312-313-311200-
/O.CON.KTFX.HW.W.0021.000000T0000Z-230831T1800Z/
Cascade County below 5000ft-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-
Including the following locations: Great Falls, Raynesford,
Geyser, Stanford, Windham, Benchland, Hobson, and Moccasin
1249 PM MDT Wed Aug 30 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph, with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Cascade County below 5000ft and Judith Basin County and 
  Judith Gap.

* WHEN...Until Noon MDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris and unsecured items. 
  Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around 
or damaged by the wind.

&&

$$

Moldan

565 
WWUS75 KTFX 310325
NPWTFX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
925 PM MDT Wed Aug 30 2023

MTZ302-303-308-311800-
/O.CON.KTFX.HW.W.0021.000000T0000Z-230831T1800Z/
Northern High Plains-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central
Pondera-Southern High Plains-
Including the following locations: Browning, Heart Butte,
Dupuyer, Cut Bank, Ethridge, Santa Rita, Bynum, Choteau, and
Pendroy
925 PM MDT Wed Aug 30 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph, mostly with gusts up to 50 mph. 
  However, a few gusts may reach 60 mph at times.

* WHERE...Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera, 
  Northern High Plains, and Southern High Plains.

* WHEN...Until Noon MDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris and unsecured items. 
  Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around 
or damaged by the wind.

&&

$$

MTZ312-313-311800-
/O.CON.KTFX.HW.W.0021.000000T0000Z-230831T1800Z/
Cascade County below 5000ft-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-
Including the following locations: Great Falls, Raynesford,
Geyser, Stanford, Windham, Benchland, Hobson, and Moccasin
925 PM MDT Wed Aug 30 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph, mostly with gusts up to 45 mph. 
  However, a few gusts may reach 60 mph at times.

* WHERE...Cascade County below 5000ft and Judith Basin County and 
  Judith Gap.

* WHEN...Until Noon MDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris and unsecured items. 
  Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around 
or damaged by the wind.

&&

$$

SC

680 
WWUS75 KTFX 310809
NPWTFX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
209 AM MDT Thu Aug 31 2023

MTZ302-303-308-312-313-310915-
/O.CAN.KTFX.HW.W.0021.000000T0000Z-230831T1800Z/
Northern High Plains-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central
Pondera-Southern High Plains-Cascade County below 5000ft-Judith
Basin County and Judith Gap-
Including the following locations: Browning, Heart Butte,
Dupuyer, Cut Bank, Ethridge, Santa Rita, Bynum, Choteau, Pendroy,
Great Falls, Raynesford, Geyser, Stanford, Windham, Benchland,
Hobson, Moccasin, Browning, Heart Butte, Dupuyer, Cut Bank,
Ethridge, Santa Rita, Bynum, Choteau, Pendroy, Great Falls,
Raynesford, Geyser, Stanford, Windham, Benchland, Hobson, and
Moccasin
209 AM MDT Thu Aug 31 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Strong winds with gusts to 60 mph are no longer expected. However, 
very windy conditions will continue this morning with occasional 
gusts of 40 to 50 mph before winds gradually decrease late this 
afternoon through this evening.

$$

Hoenisch

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1057 AM MDT Tue Aug 29 2023

.SYNOPSIS...

A southerly flow developing across the Northern Rockies and
Montana today will bring very warm temperatures and breezy winds
this afternoon before a cold front associated with an incoming
Pacific low pressure system moves into the area this evening.
Showers and thunderstorms along with gusty winds are expected as
the front moves through the area tonight with cooler temperatures
but continued windy conditions on Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...

The morning update has been published. Not much has changed with
the primary concerns being fire weather over the northeast
portions of the CWA followed by the passage of strong Pacific cold
front and associated area of showers and thunderstorms this
evening into tonight. Showers and thunderstorms look to reach
western Beaverhead County late this afternoon and then move
through the remainder of the region this evening into the
overnight hours. Confidence for severe wind gusts with this
activity is increasing, especially over Beaverhead County were
there is now a 15% chance for 58 mph wind gusts or greater within
25 miles of any given location. There is a 10% chance or less for
other locations. It's important to note that there may not be a
lot of lightning or heavy rain with today's showers/storms and
wind gusts may outrun the cells themselves by quite a distance.
Pops and winds were adjusted per current trends; otherwise, the
remainder of the previous forecast is in good shape. Will take a
better look at winds over the plains and Rocky Mountain Front for
tomorrow and Thursday for potential high wind products. - RCG

&&

.AVIATION...
520 AM MDT Tue Aug 29 2023 (29/12Z TAF Period)

VFR conditions prevail through this afternoon beneath an increasing
southerly flow aloft with just some scattered mid level clouds.
Higher concentrations of wildfire smoke across NE MT may briefly
affect KHVR this morning with MVFR visibility. Southerly surface
winds increase at all terminals this afternoon through this evening
ahead of a Pacific cold front expected to cross the region this
evening and overnight. Strong wind gusts are possible with showers
and thunderstorms associated with the frontal passage along with a
period of lower ceilings and mountain obscurations. West winds
develop overnight behind the front and increase through the day on
Wednesday. Hoenisch

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop this
afternoon and evening across Hill and Blaine counties as
afternoon temperatures in the 90s and humidity as low as 15-20%
combine with increasing south to southeast winds with gusts as
high as 25-35 mph late this afternoon into this evening. Humidity
will remain low through this evening in these areas as winds
increase further ahead of the cold fronts arrival overnight. Wind
speeds are less across western portions of north-central and
central MT this afternoon but fire weather concerns remain
elevated as south winds increase to 10-15 mph with gusts to
around 20 mph. Additional hazards are possible this evening as
gusty and shifting winds move through the area with the cold front
and any associated showers and thunderstorms along with
lightning. Cooler temperatures and improved humidity are expected
Wednesday and Thursday but windy conditions persist through at
least Wednesday night. Hoenisch

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 429 AM MDT Tue Aug 29 2023/

Satellite imagery early this morning shows a small vorticity
center still wandering aimlessly across north-central MT, embedded
within larger scale ridging downstream of an offshore upper low
moving toward the Pacific NW. A few isolated showers have
continued to circulate around the disturbance across central MT
overnight which should continue on a decreasing trend as the
disturbance begins to lift north today under increasing southerly
flow aloft ahead of the incoming Pacific low. The southerly flow
will provide some additional warming today, pushing afternoon
temperatures to around 90-95F for many lower elevation locations.
South to southeast winds at the surface increase this afternoon,
thanks to fairly deep atmospheric mixing with higher speeds/gusts
across eastern portions of north-central MT provided by a stronger
surface pressure gradient. See the fire weather discussion for
additional info on critical fire weather conditions today.

No significant changes with timing and anticipated impacts from the
upper low moving onshore later today and a Pacific cold front
sweeping east across the area this evening and overnight. Expect
stronger thunderstorms developing over ID and Western MT late this
afternoon to propagate east into western portions of N-central and
SW MT this evening. Threat for severe storms is mainly focused along
and west of the continental divide through early this evening.
Storms weaken as they continue east this evening but the warm/dry
airmass in place and will promote enhanced outflow from storms and
their associated cold pools through late this evening. Hi-resolution
model data gives a 70% probability of thunderstorm gusts greater
than 40 mph to locations along and west of I15 with a 10% risk of
gusts to around 60 mph.

The front should be east of the area by Wednesday morning with
cooler but windy conditions across the area Wednesday through
Wednesday night as the upper low center lifts out through NW MT into
southern AB. 35-45 mph wind gusts are expected (>90% chance) across
much of the area Wednesday with gusts in excess of 45 mph likely
(>60% chance) across western and southwest portions of north-central
MT. Strongest winds are still expected along the immediate east
slopes of the Rocky Mtn Front where there is a greater than 50%
probability of gusts exceeding 55mph as far east as Cut Bank.
Strongest winds in these areas will likely occur tonight during a
period of more favorable conditions for downslope wind enhancement.

Precipitation following tonights frontal passage will primarily be
orographically driven across NW MT into areas along the continental
divide while showers accompany the upper low across areas further
east, favoring northern locations better precipitation chances.
Some warming and drying follows to end the week Thursday and
Friday, but additional troughing lingers to the west with still a
large amount of uncertainty with the details of its eventual
progression inland later this weekend into early next week. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  71  52  77 /  60  30  30  10
CTB  56  64  52  73 /  90  40  40  20
HLN  57  74  53  80 /  80  20  20   0
BZN  52  76  45  78 /  70  10  10   0
WYS  42  66  32  69 /  50  10   0   0
DLN  47  70  40  74 /  80   0   0   0
HVR  60  76  53  81 /  70  40  40  20
LWT  55  75  50  77 /  80  20  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 1 AM MDT Wednesday
for Hill and Blaine Counties.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls