High Wind Warning 14, NWS Great Falls, MT

069 
WWUS75 KTFX 131923
NPWTFX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
123 PM MDT Mon Mar 13 2023

MTZ325-329-330-141200-
/O.CON.KTFX.HW.W.0014.230314T0300Z-230314T1800Z/
Madison River Valley-Ruby Mountains and Southern Beaverhead
Mountains-Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial
Mountains-
Including the following locations: West Yellowstone, Ennis,
Targhee Pass, McAllister, Norris, Cameron, Raynolds Pass, Big
Sky, Monida Pass, and Jeffers
123 PM MDT Mon Mar 13 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 
NOON MDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 35 to 45 mph, with gusts up to 70 mph, are 
  expected.

* WHERE...Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial 
  Mountains, Madison River Valley and Ruby Mountains and Southern 
  Beaverhead Mountains.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to Noon MDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property and 
  cause power outages. Travel could be difficult, especially for 
  high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Reduced visibility due to blowing snow and 
  partial lane blockages is also possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around 
or damaged by the wind.

&&

$$

MTZ301>303-307-308-312-313-141200-
/O.CON.KTFX.HW.W.0014.230314T0600Z-230314T2100Z/
East Glacier Park Region-Northern High Plains-Eastern Glacier,
Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-
Southern High Plains-Cascade County below 5000ft-Judith Basin
County and Judith Gap-
Including the following locations: Ethridge, Saint Mary, Kiowa,
Santa Rita, Moccasin, Bynum, Geyser, Babb, Benchland, Logan Pass,
Heart Butte, Great Falls, Stanford, Cut Bank, Marias Pass,
Hobson, Rogers Pass, Windham, Raynesford, Choteau, Pendroy, East
Glacier Park, Browning, and Dupuyer
123 PM MDT Mon Mar 13 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM 
MDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 35 to 45 mph, with gusts up to 60 mph, are 
  expected. Wind gusts up to 75 mph are possible in wind prone areas 
  along the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountain Front.

* WHERE...The Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent foothills and 
  plains, Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera, 
  Cascade County below 5000ft, and Judith Basin County and Judith 
  Gap.

* WHEN...From Midnight tonight to 3 PM MDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property and 
  cause power outages. Travel could be difficult, especially for 
  high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Reduced visibility due to blowing snow and 
  partial lane blockages is also possible, especially on the Rocky 
  Mountain Front.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around 
or damaged by the wind.

&&

$$

Moldan

862 
WWUS75 KTFX 140645
NPWTFX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1245 AM MDT Tue Mar 14 2023

MTZ301>303-307-308-312-313-142100-
/O.CON.KTFX.HW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-230314T2100Z/
East Glacier Park Region-Northern High Plains-Eastern Glacier,
Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-
Southern High Plains-Cascade County below 5000ft-Judith Basin
County and Judith Gap-
Including the following locations: Raynesford, Santa Rita,
Geyser, Dupuyer, Logan Pass, Benchland, Hobson, Rogers Pass,
Ethridge, Bynum, East Glacier Park, Kiowa, Saint Mary, Pendroy,
Windham, Cut Bank, Stanford, Moccasin, Browning, Heart Butte,
Great Falls, Babb, Marias Pass, and Choteau
1245 AM MDT Tue Mar 14 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 35 to 45 mph, with gusts to 60 mph. Wind 
  gusts up to 75 mph are possible in wind prone areas along the 
  eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountain Front.

* WHERE...The Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent foothills and 
  plains, Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera, 
  Cascade County below 5000ft, and Judith Basin County and Judith 
  Gap.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM MDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property and 
  cause power outages. Travel could be difficult, especially for 
  high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Reduced visibility due to blowing snow and 
  partial lane blockages is also possible, especially on the Rocky 
  Mountain Front.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around 
or damaged by the wind.

&&

$$

MTZ325-329-330-141800-
/O.CON.KTFX.HW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-230314T1800Z/
Madison River Valley-Ruby Mountains and Southern Beaverhead
Mountains-Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial
Mountains-
Including the following locations: Big Sky, Jeffers, McAllister,
Cameron, Monida Pass, Targhee Pass, West Yellowstone, Ennis,
Norris, and Raynolds Pass
1245 AM MDT Tue Mar 14 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY...

* WHAT...South winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 70 mph.

* WHERE...Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial 
  Mountains, Madison River Valley and Ruby Mountains and Southern 
  Beaverhead Mountains.

* WHEN...Until Noon MDT today.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property and 
  cause power outages. Travel could be difficult, especially for 
  high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around 
or damaged by the wind.

&&

$$

CC

542 
WWUS75 KTFX 141757
NPWTFX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1157 AM MDT Tue Mar 14 2023

MTZ301>303-307-308-312-313-141900-
/O.CAN.KTFX.HW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-230314T2100Z/
East Glacier Park Region-Northern High Plains-Eastern Glacier,
Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-
Southern High Plains-Cascade County below 5000ft-Judith Basin
County and Judith Gap-
Including the following locations: Browning, Moccasin, Heart
Butte, Raynesford, Marias Pass, Dupuyer, Cut Bank, East Glacier
Park, Ethridge, Hobson, Pendroy, Babb, Logan Pass, Choteau,
Stanford, Saint Mary, Great Falls, Benchland, Bynum, Santa Rita,
Kiowa, Geyser, Windham, and Rogers Pass
1157 AM MDT Tue Mar 14 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Winds have weakened below High Wind Warning thresholds. Therefore, 
the High Wind Warning has been cancelled.

$$

MTZ325-329-330-141900-
/O.EXP.KTFX.HW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-230314T1800Z/
Madison River Valley-Ruby Mountains and Southern Beaverhead
Mountains-Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial
Mountains-
Including the following locations: Jeffers, Monida Pass, Targhee
Pass, Ennis, Raynolds Pass, Norris, Big Sky, Cameron, McAllister,
and West Yellowstone
1157 AM MDT Tue Mar 14 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT NOON MDT TODAY...

Winds have weakened below High Wind Warning thresholds. Therefore, 
the High Wind Warning has been allowed to expire.

$$

Ludwig

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1116 PM MDT Sun Mar 12 2023

...Aviation Section Updated...

.SYNOPSIS...

Fog is expected to redevelop over the plains of Central and North
Central Montana this evening and persist into the morning hours on
Monday. Temperatures warm across most locations during the day on
Monday as a warm front lifts north across the Northern Rockies,
with increasing southerly winds in its wake, especially from Monday
night through the day on Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...

A relatively brief period of upper level ridging dominates, for now.
Inherited forecast is working nicely; therefore, no updates are
made, at this time.
- Fogleman

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today through tonight...primary forecast concerns throughout
the period are the potential for fog development over the plains of
Central and North Central Montana (once again), and increasing
winds, particularly within the north-south orientated valleys of
Southwest Montana.

H500 ridge axis will begin to shift east of the Northern Rockies
through the overnight hours tonight as a longwave trough/closed low
over the Gulf of Alaska digs southeast towards the Pacific
Northwest/British Columbia. This will lead to increasing, moist,
zonal to southwesterly flow aloft across Southwest through North
Central Montana, with increasing mid- to upper level cloudiness
expected beyond 06z tonight as a low to upper level warm front lifts
northeast across the CWA. At the surface, high pressure moving from
Southern Saskatchewan/Eastern Montana/Western Dakotas (this
afternoon) to the Central Dakotas/Western Minnesota/Southern
Manitoba (Monday morning) and a warm front lifting north/northeast
will lead to low level flow becoming increasingly southerly in
nature through Monday morning, with the exception of the Milk River
Valley where predominately easterly low level flow will be
maintained as cold air remains entrenched within the lower
elevations.

Expect temperatures to once again fall quickly with the
loss of solar insolation early this evening over the plains of
Central and North Central Montana, with most locations (outside of
the aforementioned Milk River Valley) warming beyond 06z Monday as
the aforementioned warm front lifts north and across the region.
Antecedent low level moisture, light winds, and initially clear
skies will also allow for the redevelopment of fog this evening over
the plains of Central and North Central Montana, particularly along
and northwest of a Great Falls to Havre line. Finally, increasing
low to mid-level southerly flow and a strengthening pressure
gradient along the I-90 corridor across Southwest Montana will lead
to increasing south surface winds within the north-south valleys of
Southwest Montana through the overnight hours, particularly in the
Madison River Valley where winds are expected to become sustained at
between 15-25 mph and gusts as high as 35 mph throughout the night.

Monday through Tuesday...primary concern throughout the period will
be the potential for high winds across portions of Southwest,
Central, and North Central Montana; in addition to accumulating snow
along Continental Divide from Idaho to the International Border.

High temperatures on Monday are expected to warm into the upper 30s
to mid-40s (at lower elevations) along and southwest of a Sweetgrass
to Lewistown line in wake of the northward advancing warm front,
with the mid-20s to low 30s expected northeast of this line where
shallower cold air will be stubborn/slow to be eroded. Believe that
the current deterministic NBM guidance continues to run to warm with
regards to high temperatures across the CWA on Monday, particularly
across Hill and Blaine Counties, so blended in NBM10th percentile
guidance to lower temperatures to the aforementioned values. Surface
winds, while increasing throughout the day on Monday south of the
warm front, will increase significantly Monday evening/night as a
mid- and upper level jet streak begins to overspread the Northern
Rockies ahead of the upper level shortwave. NBM probabilistic
guidance continues to suggest high winds developing within/across
the Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains,
Madison River Valley and Ruby Mountains and Southern Beaverhead
Mountains zones by Monday evening, with high winds persisting
through Tuesday morning here. While NBM probabilistic guidance is
less supportive for high winds developing further north along the
Montana Hwy 200 corridor across Central Montana and along the Rocky
Mountain Front and adjacent plains, deterministic model guidance and
forecaster experience would suggest that high winds are also
possible here from early Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon.
Given these consideration, we have decided to issue a High Wind
Watch for a portion of Southwest through North Central Montana from
Monday evening/early Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
morning/Tuesday afternoon. In addition to the winds, accumulating
mountain snow is expected from Monday through Tuesday along the
Continental Divide from the Idaho border to the International
Border, with winter weather highlights potentially becoming
necessary from Monday evening onwards across these areas. - Moldan

Tuesday night through next Sunday...Winds gradually subside later
Tuesday into Wednesday as the strong disturbance and jet stream
move out of the area to the north and east, leaving behind a
stalled surface front somewhere over southwest Montana during this
time. A second approaching disturbance from the west then
develops widespread precipitation along a tightening thermal
gradient and increased frontogenesis late Tuesday into Wednesday,
as a warm, moist, and unstable air mass moving into southwest
Montana clashes with cold advection from weak high pressure
pushing in from the north. Models, including the EC EFI, suggest
the potential for areas of heavy precipitation/snow across parts
of the area during this time, as of now highlighting areas along
the Canadian border as well as areas along the southwest
Montana/Idaho border as potential targets, though there is
considerable uncertainty. However, trends will need to be watched
closely to see where the best dynamics come together to produce
impactful snowfall, which could be anywhere over the forecast
area.

A northerly jet stream across the area on the back side of the
upper trough likely continues to produce snow over the mountains
for Thursday, with upper ridging moving back over the area for
Friday bringing more tranquil weather conditions. Another
disturbance may bring clouds, some snow, and cool temperatures for
next weekend, but the best dynamics for more impactful weather
look to stay well south of the forecast area. - CC

&&

.AVIATION...
1116 PM MDT Sun Mar 12 2023 (13/06Z TAF Period)

Please note: The NWS Great Falls office area of responsibility
includes the following airfields: KCTB, KHVR, KGTF, KLWT, KHLN, KBZN
and KEKS.

Main concern overnight is the potential for IFR/LIFR conditions at
north-central terminals, particularly KCTB. VFR conditions prevail
otherwise. Southerly winds increase through the period at all
terminals, with varying onset times. Wind shear will also become a
concern as winds aloft increase before finally mixing to the surface
at some terminals. Mtn obscurations and areas of snow will prevail
along the Continental Divide, but diminish over much of the rest of
the region by 18z Monday, before returning after 00z Tuesday.

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   8  45  41  45 /  10  10  20  10
CTB   9  37  26  37 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  17  43  30  44 /  10  20  50  20
BZN  13  39  28  46 /  10  20  40  30
WYS   8  34  32  38 /  60  80  90  80
DLN  19  39  31  43 /  20  20  40  30
HVR  -3  24  22  38 /  10  10  20  10
LWT  14  42  35  43 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

High Wind Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon
for Cascade County below 5000ft-East Glacier Park Region-Eastern
Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Judith Basin County
and Judith Gap-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains-
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

High Wind Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains-
Madison River Valley-Ruby Mountains and Southern Beaverhead
Mountains.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls