Tornado Warning 3, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

844 
WWUS52 KTBW 131540
SVSTBW

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
1140 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023

FLC081-115-131600-
/O.CON.KTBW.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-230313T1600Z/
Manatee FL-Sarasota FL-
1140 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN MANATEE AND NORTH CENTRAL SARASOTA COUNTIES...
    
At 1139 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Lake Sarasota, or 9 miles east of Sarasota, moving
east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Hidden River.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile
home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 2727 8242 2737 8242 2741 8231 2726 8226
TIME...MOT...LOC 1539Z 260DEG 21KT 2730 8239 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

TBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
959 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023

In general, the short-term forecast remains on track, no changes
were made. A line of showers is pushing southward ahead of an
approaching cold front. Right now it is located north of Nature
Coast, but KTBW radar imagery are showing some isolated to
scattered showers activity in some areas of the CWA. SPC has
highlighted our forecast area in a Marginal Risk of severe weather
today, which means that isolated severe storms will be possible
with periods of gusty winds, lightning, and perhaps some small
hail. Residents and visitors should stay weather-aware, keeping
multiple ways to receive weather alerts if needed.

General breezy winds will continue to gradually veer from W-SW to N
today into tomorrow as the front pushes through the area. Max temps
today will be in the mid 70s north to mid 80s south and interior.
Behind the front, we are anticipating a cooler/drier airmass to
filter into the area with temperatures expected to dip below normal
until Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 743 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023

MVFR CIGs are the main impact at the moment and should continue for
the next hours. The line of showers ahead of the cold front will
continue to move southward into our region during today. Timing
confidence for impacts reflected in TAFs is moderate. Leave SHRA at
the northern TAF sites, however southern terminals are more likely
to see TSRA given later timing and greater instability as the day
progresses. Conditions are expected to return to VFR from north to
south once the storms move through later today, but winds should
remain somewhat breezy with a northerly component.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023

Deteriorating marine conditions are expected through the morning as
showers and thunderstorms move through coastal waters ahead of an
advancing cold front. Winds and seas are expected to build through
the day in response to the front as well. Small craft should
exercise caution. Winds are expected to remain elevated through
the middle of the week with a tighter gradient in place, and winds
should back to a northerly direction behind the front later
today. Seas of 2 to 4 feet are expected. A brief period of
quieter marine weather returns later in the week before the next
cold front arrives for the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023

Showers and thunderstorms are expected today across the region.
However, overall rainfall is expected to be limited. Cooler and
drier air is then expected to settle in across the peninsula
through the middle of the week. In response, RH values are likely
to be critical for Tuesday and Wednesday. If winds end up being a
little stronger than currently forecast, red flag conditions are
possible. Currently not confident enough for a fire weather watch,
but fire weather concerns are elevated for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  57  71  51 /  80   0   0   0
FMY  85  62  82  56 /  70  20  10  10
GIF  82  54  72  48 /  80  10   0   0
SRQ  83  57  74  52 /  80  10   0   0
BKV  80  47  71  41 /  70   0   0   0
SPG  80  59  71  55 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Zayas
DECISION SUPPORT...Wynn
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Flannery

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
1102 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023

FLZ043-142-242-131545-
Coastal Citrus FL-Inland Citrus FL-Sumter FL-
1102 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Citrus and
northwestern Sumter Counties through 1145 AM EDT...

At 1101 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles west of Homosassa, or 14 miles west of Homosassa Springs,
moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Inverness, Homosassa Springs, Beverly Hills, Inverness Airport,
Crystal River Airport, Black Diamond, Homosassa, Inverness Highlands
South, Inverness Highlands North, Hernando, Sugarmill Woods, Arbor
Lakes, Lecanto, Citronelle, Leisure Acres, Inverness Highlands, Pine
Ridge, Heatherwood, Citrus Hills and Gospel Island.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2903 8243 2900 8236 2896 8231 2896 8223
      2869 8221 2873 8277 2879 8281 2894 8282
TIME...MOT...LOC 1501Z 269DEG 35KT 2884 8278

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TBW