Tornado Warning 22, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
309 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023

We will be looking at some unsettled weather for the next few days
with possible severe weather overnight and early tomorrow
morning. First lets talk about what is setting all this up. We
will have a low pressure system pushing through Florida just north
of our area. This will increase our moisture and help to bring a
few rounds of shower and storms across the area. Thanks to the
moisture and heat return we will see a more typically pop up
showers and storms across the area this evening.

Overnight we will see the low pressure itself passing north of the
area through the Panhandle and southern Georgia. This will bring
another round of showers and storms and its this round we are
concerned about when it come to severe weather. Our concern is high
winds and the possibility for tornadoes. Looking at sample forecast
soundings along the coast for the HRRR we are seeing backing winds
at the surface and higher values for 0-1km SRH which in turn is
giving us high STP values overnight between 06z and 12z. However we
also have PWs at 2.5 and CAPE values not to impressive. So we
know storms will be spinning but will they be able to reach the
ground.

After that the front that is associated with the low pressure system
will stall over the area. Severe weather risk will be much lower but
weather will continue to be unsettled through the rest of the week
with scattered showers and storms through the afternoon and evening
both Thursday and Friday.

Next weekend will be much like last weekend. Saturday will be warm
and humid with a cold front pushing through. A few showers will be
possible but chances will be lower compared to the end of the week.
For Sunday cooler and drier air will start to filter in bringing in
pleasant weather once again.

Early next week we will see dry but below average temperatures. We
could see widespread low 60's and upper 50's in the morning with
highs staying in the 70's.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023

A more active weather pattern will start to set up over our areas
over the next 24 hours. VFR conditions and light winds are
expected till around 20Z. After that VCTS will be in the forecast
through the TAF period with tempos from 00z to 06z when the
heaviest of the rain is expected. Winds will also be picking up
overnight with gust up to 20 to 25 knots expected out of the
south.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023
A strong south to southwest flow will cause hazardous marine
conditions over the Gulf and coastal waters tonight into tomorrow.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will impact waters
now through Thursday, some storms may be severe with damaging winds
and possible waterspouts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023
No fire weather concerns through the weekend as RH values remain
well above criteria. Strong to severe thunderstorms expected through
Thursday morning, with gust winds likely.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  79  87  80 /  70  80  80  30
FMY  89  80  90  80 /  70  80  50  20
GIF  87  76  88  77 /  70  90  80  40
SRQ  89  78  88  79 /  70  80  70  30
BKV  86  74  87  76 /  80  80  80  30
SPG  85  78  87  80 /  70  80  70  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 2 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday
     evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal
     Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     High Surf Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM to 5 PM EDT Thursday for
     Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-
     Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Thursday for
     Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from
     Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-
     Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Thursday
     for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
     out 20 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
     out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Pearce
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce