Tornado Warning 1, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
405 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2023

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2023

Expect a rainy and cloudy start to the day across the majority of
the area as a cold front makes its way across the state with a
preceding line of showers and embedded storms, affecting Nature
Coast and central locations through mid to late morning before
spreading to southern locations later in the morning to around
midday. Conditions begin improving this afternoon as the front
clears the area to the south although lingering clouds and
increasing northwest winds ushering in a cooler and drier air mass
will keep temps steady before falling through the afternoon for
most areas except perhaps southern interior and SWFL locations
that may see temps rise a few degrees prior to the front passing
through. As advertised, today will be one of those days when areas
where the front has already passed or will be passing by this
morning are likely to see their high temps immediately preceding
frontal passage, if they have not already, followed by dropping
temps throughout the day and wind chills becoming a factor this
evening into tonight. Temps currently in the 50s across the Nature
Coast and 60s elsewhere will likely serve as the day's highs, and
while parts of SWFL may warm to around 70 by late morning, expect
afternoon temps dropping through the 60s and 50s across the area.
Northwest winds gusting to 20-30 mph this afternoon and evening
will lead to wind chills in the upper 30s to lower 50s for most
areas by late evening, further dropping into the upper 20s to
lower 40s overnight, with overnight lows dropping into the mid 30s
to mid 40s except for immediate central/southern coastal
locations closer to 50. A Wind Chill Advisory may be required for
parts of the area tonight depending on the trend of obs and
guidance as the day progresses.

Much cooler on Saturday under clearing skies with afternoon highs
only reaching the mid 50s to around 60 south. Winds remain
slightly elevated in the afternoon keeping feels like temps a few
degrees cooler before gradually diminishing through the evening,
allowing temps to drop more rapidly Saturday night into Sunday
morning under a favorable radiational cooling setup. Freezing
temps will be possible for Nature Coast locations, and given the
light winds expected, lows elsewhere are likely to drop into the
mid 30s except for immediate coastal locations closer to 40, with
patchy frost possible in some of the colder locations. A Freeze
Watch will likely be required for parts of the Nature Coast for
Sunday morning, and may be needed for areas further south
extending into central and perhaps southern interior locations
given the air mass and favorable setup. High pressure gradually
shifts into the Atlantic from Sunday through Tuesday allowing our
winds to gradually shift to east and southeast with moderating
temps and moisture, and afternoon highs warming back into the 60s
on Sunday and the upper 60s to lower 70s on Monday. Conditions
continue moderating through the week with rain chances remaining
at a minimum until the next system and cold front arrive in the
region late next week, by which time afternoon highs are expected
to have warmed back into the upper 70s to lower 80s with overnight
lows in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2023

Current VFR conditions give way to MVFR to brief LCL IFR
conditions later this morning as line of showers and storms ahead
of approaching cold front affects terminals. Timing for greatest
impacts generally from early/mid morning for northern terminals
to late morning/midday for southern terminals. VSCH may linger
for a few hours behind main line before clearing to the south by
early afternoon across all terminals, with MVFR cigs also
lingering before lifting/improving during afternoon. S/SW winds
ahead of front shift to W/NW behind line, increasing to 15-20 kts
with gusts up to around 25-30 kts across terminals during early
afternoon, before diminishing slightly in evening into Fri night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2023

A cold front pushing across the waters this morning will bring
showers and a few storms before clearing to the south early this
afternoon. High pressure behind the front with north to northwest
winds will lead to advisory level winds and seas in unprotected
waters and advisory level winds in bays and harbors through
Saturday evening before diminishing. Improving conditions expected
early next week with winds gradually veering to southeast and
south heading into mid week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 400 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2023

A cold front with a line of showers and a few storms will push
across the area this morning, clearing the area from north to south
late morning into early afternoon. High pressure in its wake will
usher in cooler and drier air, with gusty winds likely this afternoon
through Saturday leading to elevated dispersions before diminishing,
followed by widespread critical afternoon RH values on Sunday and
slightly less widespread on Monday. Winds are expected to remain low
enough on both days to prevent any Red Flag conditions, before
moisture recovers early next week further alleviating any Red Flag
concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  67  45  55  40 /  70   0   0   0
FMY  74  47  61  40 /  90   0   0   0
GIF  68  40  56  36 /  90   0   0   0
SRQ  68  47  56  40 /  90   0   0   0
BKV  65  36  54  31 /  60   0   0   0
SPG  64  47  53  44 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM EST Saturday
     for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
     Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL
     out 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for Waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hurt
DECISION SUPPORT...Pearce/Shiveley
CLIMATE...Pearce

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
423 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2023

FLZ050-148-149-151-248-249-251-131000-
Inland Pasco FL-Inland Hernando FL-Coastal Hernando FL-
Coastal Hillsborough FL-Pinellas FL-Coastal Pasco FL-
Inland Hillsborough FL-
423 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western Pasco,
southwestern Hernando, northwestern Pinellas and northwestern
Hillsborough Counties through 500 AM EST...

At 422 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 13 miles northwest of Beacon Square to 9 miles
west of Palm Harbor to 16 miles northwest of Harbor Bluffs. Movement
was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Spring Hill, Clearwater, New Port Richey, Hudson, Holiday, Weeki
Wachee, Palm Harbor, New Port Richey East, Beacon Square, Keystone,
East Lake, Jasmine Estates, Land O Lakes, Hernando County Airport,
Timber Pines, North Weeki Wachee, Citrus Park, Safety Harbor, Oldsmar
and High Point.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2844 8279 2857 8248 2826 8239 2805 8263
      2803 8288
TIME...MOT...LOC 0922Z 253DEG 37KT 2830 8295 2813 8290 2806 8304

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TBW