Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
330 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
...RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES THIS MORNING...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023

The next few hours have been advertised as having the potential to
be pretty active. However, the atmosphere has not recovered from
earlier storms. The boundary layer is currently decoupled, with
ACARS soundings showing a low-level inversion around 950mb,
extending to about 850mb. Early cells have struggled to hold
together as they have moved into adjacent coastal waters. Right now,
convection looks to take on a mostly elevated profile as they near
the coast, limiting the severe threat. However, if the atmosphere
does indeed manage to destabilize again at the surface - this
changes the game completely.

Bulk shear values remain in the 45kt range with low-level ESRH
values in the 250 to 350 range. From an instability perspective,
over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE is available. When considering these
conditions, supercells are likely and would be capable of producing
damaging wind gusts and/or tornadoes. The atmosphere has to
destabilize further for this to be a legitimate threat, though. With
-500 J/kg MLCIN at TPA, the atmosphere hasn't made that change,
though.

This morning's weather is sponsored by a pretty robust upper-level
shortwave propagating through the flow. The westerly flow remains
strong (not currently at the surface due to the inversion - but not
far above); a gusty W to WNW flow is expected today in response,
facilitating dangerous marine conditions at area beaches and on the
water.

This shortwave should quickly exit the area later today, with a
rather benign pattern setting up thereafter as an upper-level ridge
builds back in gradually from the west through the week. Warm and
dry becomes the theme for the week thereafter. By the end of the
work week and over the weekend, enough moisture may be present
again to support isolated diurnal convection across the interior,
but rain chances still remain pretty low. Overall, things are
looking quiet after today.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 150 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023

Low-level wind shear is a concern for the next couple hours with the
lowest 1kft now more stable. Winds have become light at the surface,
but remain fast aloft. This is likely to change in the next couple
hours with thunderstorms potentially redeveloping. Radar is
beginning to show some signs of this occurring over the Gulf, but
whether the atmosphere can recover quickly enough over land remains
somewhat uncertain. If storms do indeed reform, impacts to terminals
are likely, with brief IFR conditions not out of the question. The
line should quickly exit the area this morning, with VFR returning
thereafter, and likely for the next several days. However, a tight
gradient is expected to keep WNW winds gusty through the day, before
starting to settle after 0Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023

Dangerous marine conditions exist today with Gale Force winds
across northern and central coastal waters, including Tampa Bay.
While the highest winds should subside later this afternoon, it'll
take significantly longer for the seas to subside as well. Seas
in excess of 7 feet are likely to continue through much of the
night, especially across offshore waters. As a quiet and dry
weather pattern settles in this week, marine conditions should
improve through the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023

Showers and thunderstorms are possible through the morning hours,
with gusty winds of 25 to 30mph possible through the day today even
as storms exit the area, favoring very high dispersions. Warm and
dry conditions follow for the week ahead, with RH values approaching
35% several days this week. However, winds are expected to remain
light enough to preclude any significant red flag concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  69  82  70 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  82  69  86  68 /  60   0   0   0
GIF  80  62  85  63 /  20   0   0   0
SRQ  80  69  83  69 /  10   0   0   0
BKV  79  61  82  63 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  77  71  80  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for Coastal
     Levy.

Gulf waters...Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for Coastal waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
     Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL
     out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee
     River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Monday
     for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River
     FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Charlotte
     Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Monday
     for Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for Waters from
     Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Flannery

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
547 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023

FLZ052-056-057-251-255-301045-
Inland Manatee FL-Highlands FL-Polk FL-Hardee FL-
Inland Hillsborough FL-
547 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Highlands,
Hardee, northeastern Manatee, Polk and east central Hillsborough
Counties through 645 AM EDT...

At 547 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Haines City to 6 miles southeast of Bartow to 8
miles northeast of Myakka City. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lakeland, Winter Haven, Haines City, Bartow, Lake Wales, Auburndale,
Sebring, Avon Park, Wauchula, Lake Istokpoga, Medulla, Ona, Fussels
Corner, Combee Settlement, Sebring Regional Airport, Lakeland Linder
Airport, Jan Phyl Village, Poinciana, Sweetwater, and Fort Meade.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 PM EDT for central, south
central and west central Florida.

&&

LAT...LON 2734 8215 2794 8212 2830 8175 2828 8166
      2826 8166 2826 8156 2814 8152 2814 8146
      2809 8145 2808 8135 2801 8138 2806 8145
      2792 8131 2786 8131 2784 8122 2777 8118
      2766 8113 2749 8121 2739 8112 2736 8104
TIME...MOT...LOC 0947Z 246DEG 29KT 2809 8163 2783 8176 2740 8203

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
627 AM EDT SUN APR 30 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0536 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 NNW BELLEAIR          27.98N 82.83W
04/30/2023  M58 MPH          GMZ853             FL   BUOY

            BUOY STATION CWBF1 CLEARWATER BEACH PIER 60.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
641 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023

FLZ043-052-056-061-249-251-255-260-301115-
Inland Manatee FL-DeSoto FL-Inland Pasco FL-Sumter FL-
Inland Sarasota FL-Polk FL-Hardee FL-Inland Hillsborough FL-
641 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Sumter,
southeastern Pasco, western Hardee, Manatee, western Polk, eastern
Hillsborough, northwestern DeSoto and north central Sarasota Counties
through 715 AM EDT...

At 641 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles east of Zephyrhills North to 6 miles
northeast of Lakewood Ranch. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lakeland, Plant City, Winter Haven, Haines City, Bartow, Lake Wales,
Auburndale, Wauchula, Fish Hawk, Brandon, Medulla, Ona, Fussels
Corner, Combee Settlement, Lakeland Linder Airport, Jan Phyl Village,
Myakka City, Lakewood Ranch, Greater Sun Center, and Riverview.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 PM EDT for south central,
central and west central Florida.

&&

LAT...LON 2723 8194 2740 8245 2743 8246 2835 8208
      2832 8166 2826 8166 2826 8156 2821 8153
TIME...MOT...LOC 1041Z 282DEG 36KT 2828 8203 2747 8237

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TBW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
643 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023

FLZ165-265-301115-
Inland Lee FL-Coastal Lee FL-
643 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Lee County through
715 AM EDT...

At 643 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Lochmoor Waterway Estates to 23 miles west
of Naples. Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cape Coral, Fort Myers, Bonita Springs, Lehigh Acres, East Dunbar,
Southwest Florida Airport, Harlem Heights, Lochmoor Waterway Estates,
Iona, Cypress Lake, San Carlos Park, McGregor, Pine Manor, Charleston
Park, Lovers Key State Park, Olga, Buckingham, Villas, Three Oaks,
and Page Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 PM EDT for southwestern
Florida.

&&

LAT...LON 2633 8182 2632 8187 2638 8206 2667 8193
      2676 8157 2642 8156 2642 8166 2632 8166
      2631 8182
TIME...MOT...LOC 1043Z 260DEG 41KT 2661 8191 2607 8217

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TBW

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