Wind Advisory 5, NWS Tallahassee, FL

852 
WWUS72 KTAE 130858
NPWTAE

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
458 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023

FLZ114-115-131000-
/O.CAN.KTAE.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230413T1000Z/
Coastal Gulf-Coastal Franklin-
Including the cities of Oak Grove, Odena, Port St. Joe, 
White City, Beacon Hill, Overstreet, Saint Joe Beach, 
Apalachicola, Apalachicola Airport, Bay City, Tilton, Creels, 
Hays Place, and High Bluff
458 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023 /358 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023/

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds have fallen below 40 mph. Gusts up to 25 to 30 mph will be
possible through mid morning.  

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
853 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 843 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023

The current forecast remains on track. No updates are planned for
this period.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023

Rather complex set-up will evolve overnight as low pressure over the
north-central Gulf of Mexico lifts northward overnight. Warm front
stretch east-southeast of the main low will lift northward as well,
reaching the coast during the pre-dawn hours. Ahead of the warm
front, an area of stratiform rain will spread across the area late
this afternoon into the evening hours. May see this area diminish by
mid-evening before additional showers develop offshore and begin
pushing northward closer to midnight.

After midnight, expect to see the surface low approach the central
Gulf Coast, with the associated warm front approaching the Panhandle
Coast. There will be some overlap between the favorable low-level
shear along and just north of the warm front and the favorable
instability south of the front as it pushes onshore, which may
support some rotating storms during the predawn and early morning
hours along the Panhandle coast. Thus, there is a marginal tornado
threat during this period. As the day progresses, and the warm front
pushes quickly inland, the low-level shear diminishes, but the
instability and deep-layer shear will remain supportive of isolated
severe storms, with damaging winds becoming the primary threat as
bands of convection develop through the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Friday night)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023

The area of low pressure will continue to lift northeastward
across central and northern Alabama and Georgia. We'll start
Thursday evening off with residual bands of showers moving off to
the northwest. As we move to the back side of the low pressure
system, we'll see a few more isolated showers come in from the
west late Thursday night and continuing into Friday, mostly along
and north of I-10.

Otherwise, low temperatures will be in the upper 50s to middle 60s
with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023

We don't have much of a break between systems as another trough
swings across the Great Lakes, bringing a cold front into our area
Saturday night into Sunday. Right now, it appears to be a line of
showers with some embedded thunder. Severe weather odds appear
minimal as shear will be lacking and the upper-level support will
be well off to our north. We'll see a cool down behind the front
with highs falling from the 80s over the weekend back to the 70s
on Monday. Likewise, lows will be in the 60s Saturday night with
40s and 50s by Sunday and Monday nights. This brief chill will be
short-lived as highs return to the lower to middle 80s on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 718 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023

Winds will pick up over the evening and into tomorrow, starting
easterly by 00Z, April 13, and shifting to southerly by 00Z,
April 14. Chance of lowest visibility will arrive by 12-13Z and
most conditions tomorrow will be MVFR due to low cloud ceilings of
less than 3000ft. MVFR restrictions are expected to occur at KDHN,
KTLH, and KECP by 03Z and occur at KABY and KVLD as early as 10Z.
TSRA chances are likely for most of Thursday with notable shifts
in wind direction and wind gusts of 20-25kts for all terminals.
Conditions are not expected to improve for all terminals until
00Z, April 14.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023

An area of low pressure will move ashore along the central Gulf
Coast tonight, bringing strong winds, building seas, and
widespread showers with a few thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms
could produce gusty winds and waterspouts. A tightening pressure
gradient will allow for winds to increase tonight with gale force
gusts to near 40 knots likely in the western offshore waters. An
occasional gust to gale force is possible near shore as well. Seas
will be about 6 to 10 feet, occasionally higher. Winds and seas
will quickly subside through the day Thursday with winds generally
remaining light and southerly through the weekend. A cold front
will move through the area Sunday, bringing a shift in winds out
of the north as well as an uptick in winds to cautionary levels
early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023

Deep moisture will return overnight as low pressure lifts north into
the region from the Gulf. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected tonight through Thursday. Dispersions
will be lower on Thursday for most of the region. However, high
dispersions will still be possible by mid-afternoon south of I-10
where the sun may return along with strong transport winds.
High dispersion values will be more widespread on Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023

Overall, rainfall totals have decreased slightly with this
forecast package. Still looking at up to an inch widespread.
There's some potential that parts of our area finds itself in the
dry slot of this system, which would significantly undercut
rainfall totals more. On the other hand, there could be some bands
of rain that train over the same areas that could produce locally
a few inches of rain. But confidence in the higher totals is
rather low, both in amount and space. If heavier bands do set up,
then some nuisance flooding or perhaps very localized flash
flooding could occur. For that reason, WPC maintains the marginal
risk for excessive rainfall (level 1 of 5) for much of the area.

Regardless, our rivers are in good shape, and we don't anticipate
any riverine concerns from this rainfall.

By this weekend, some showers and storms return to our area along
a cold front. This system will be transient enough to keep
rainfall totals light. Thus, no flood concerns are expected this
weekend either.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   79  63  81  63 /  30  70  70  30
Panama City   77  63  77  66 /  60  70  60  30
Dothan        77  60  76  60 /  30  70  80  30
Albany        78  60  77  61 /  10  70  80  50
Valdosta      78  62  79  62 /  10  60  70  40
Cross City    80  63  83  64 /  30  60  70  40
Apalachicola  74  66  76  68 /  60  80  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Thursday for
     GMZ730-750-752-755-765-775.

     Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ770-772.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ770-
     772.

&&

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Camp
HYDROLOGY...Young

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1127 PM EDT WED APR 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SSW EASTPOINT         29.71N 84.89W
04/12/2023  M45 MPH          GMZ755             FL   MESONET

            45 MPH GUST AT THE ST. GEORGE ISLAND BRIDGE.
            COURTESY WEATHERSTEM.

1020 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 ENE ALLIGATOR POINT   29.92N 84.33W
04/12/2023  M40 MPH          FRANKLIN           FL   MESONET

            40 MPH GUST AT THE BALD POINT WEATHERFLOW
            SITE.

&&