Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
207 PM EDT Sun Aug 6 2023

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Aug 6 2023

Some patchy fog to the start of what will be a dangerously hot day
with the potential for isolated severe thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening. The main forcing mechanism for convection today will
be a mid-level shortwave, with additional contributions from the
seabreeze circulation. PoPs are highest northwest of I-10 and the
Flint River, ranging from 50-70 pct, and 30-50 pct southeastward,
as northwest 850 hPa flow tends to supress the seabreeze. Model
soundings indicate high instability, with SB CAPE up to 5k J/kg,
and DCAPE in excess of 1k J/Kg. The main concern will be pulse-
type thunderstorms, with isolated damaging wind gusts and small
hail. The greatest potential will be in the Western FL Panhandle,
Southeast AL, and Southwest GA. The deep layer flow is weaker
compared to yesterday, only around 10 knots. This combined with
PWATS in excess 2.0" may lead to isolated flash flooding due
to slow moving/training storms producing high rainfall rates.
Convection is expected to hold off long enough for higher heat
indices/apparent temperatures across the entire region compared
to yesterday. The Heat Advisory has been expanded to include all
of the Southwest GA Counties, and continues in Southeast AL and
FL Big Bend Counties. The Heat Advisory in the FL Panhandle and
portions of Southeast AL has been replaced with an Excessive
Heat Warning. Thus, dangerous heat is expected across the entire
region today, with heat index values ranging from 107-115 deg.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Aug 6 2023

East-west oriented subtropical ridge will remain parked south of
the region through much of the upcoming week, keeping the forecast
area on the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies. West-
southwest flow in the lowest levels will keep the boundary layer
very moist through Tuesday, with dewpoints staying in the mid to
upper 70s. The west-northwest mid-level flow will support keep
temperatures above normal, with highs reaching the mid to upper
90s each afternoon. The combinations will push apparent
temperatures well above 100 degrees, and above 110 degrees in some
areas. Most of the area will likely need another Heat Advisory for
Monday, with and Excessive Heat Warning possible for southern
portions. Have gone ahead with and Excessive Heat Watch for this
southern area. Not a whole lot of change is expected for Tuesday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day,
with potentially better chances on Tuesday as a slightly stronger
shortwave moves through in the zonal flow aloft. Isolated severe
storms will be possible each day, with damaging winds being the
primary threat.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Aug 6 2023

The overall pattern stays the same through most of the week, with
hot and humid conditions continuing. Some slightly drier air may
advect in by late Wednesday or Thursday, possibly lowering PoPs
for or a day or so. Otherwise, the above normal temperatures are
expected to continue into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun Aug 6 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through a majority of the TAF period.
The only restrictions will be brief MVFR/IFR conditions in
thunderstorms and possibly patchy fog from 08-13z on Monday
morning. Thunderstorms are getting going now and should remain
scattered through the day. Coverage will begin to decrease after
00z this evening with storms ending by 06z across the area
tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Aug 6 2023

Generally light west to southwest flow is expected to prevail
across the coastal waters through the weekend into early next
week, keeping seas generally two feet or less. Scattered
thunderstorms may lead to locally higher winds and seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Aug 6 2023

Transport winds have come down slightly today so dispersions
across Southeast Alabama are expected to remain in the 40s
and 50s. Stronger transport winds on Monday are expected to
lead to high dispersions across portions of Southeast AL
and Southwest GA. A prolonged period of dangerous heat is
on tap beginning today and continuing into early next week
with heat index/apparent temperatures ranging from 107 to
around 115 degrees each day.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Aug 6 2023

Daily diurnal convection through the next several days will lead
to widespread rainfall amounts generally less than two inches.
However, with plenty of deep moisture in place, locally heavier
amounts could lead to some localized flooding.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the
office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   76  99  78  96 /  20  30  10  50
Panama City   80  93  82  92 /  10  20  10  50
Dothan        75  98  77  96 /  30  10  10  60
Albany        75  98  76  96 /  50  30  20  60
Valdosta      74  99  76  96 /  30  40  20  50
Cross City    77  97  79  94 /  20  40  20  40
Apalachicola  80  92  82  91 /  10  20   0  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening
     for FLZ007>010-012>014-108-112-114.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ011-
     015>019-026>029-034-115-118-127-128-134.

     Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.

GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ120>131-142>148-
     155>161.

     Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for GAZ155>161.

AL...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065-
     068.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ066-067-069.

     Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for ALZ068-069.

GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM....Camp
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Camp

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
109 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023

FLZ010>013-061900-
Inland Bay FL-Calhoun FL-Jackson FL-Washington FL-
109 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Jackson,
northeastern Bay, northwestern Calhoun and southeastern Washington
Counties in the Panhandle of Florida through 200 PM CDT...

At 109 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles west of Marianna to 11 miles southeast
of Vernon. Movement was southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marianna, Bradford, Cottondale, Altha, Alford, Moose Pond, Fountain,
Singer Road, Union City, Camps Head, Gainer Spring, Bennett,
Youngstown, Star, Porter Lake, Compass Lake, Betts, Orange Hill,
Kynesville and Ridgetop.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3085 8537 3077 8510 3050 8514 3036 8538
      3036 8553 3038 8556 3037 8560 3044 8575
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 301DEG 10KT 3076 8535 3048 8562

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
220 PM EDT Sun Aug 6 2023

FLZ008-010-012-108-112-061900-
Coastal Bay FL-Central Walton FL-Inland Bay FL-South Walton FL-
Washington FL-
220 PM EDT Sun Aug 6 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Bay,
southeastern Walton and southwestern Washington Counties through 300
PM EDT/200 PM CDT/...

At 220 PM EDT/120 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 13 miles northwest of Panama City Beach, moving east at
10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Panama City Beach, Ebro, Inlet Beach, Seminole Hills, Gulf Resort
Beach, Seaside, Point Washington, Pine Log, Sunnyside, Bunker, Laird,
Laguna Beach, Hollywood Beach, Seagrove Beach and West Bay.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3038 8612 3039 8610 3039 8611 3042 8610
      3044 8608 3044 8584 3021 8587 3032 8616
TIME...MOT...LOC 1820Z 259DEG 7KT 3037 8599

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

42-DVD

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