Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
358 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023

More storms, mostly across the Panhandle, have been firing up at
this hour across the area. Most of the activity so far today
occurred across the Big Bend and across the Apalachee Bay. This
was in response to an upper level trough slowly nudging southeast
towards the Florida Peninsula. This generated extensive storm
activity this morning, but cloud cover and more stable conditions
have since allowed convection to wane. While the Panhandle was
relatively quiet this morning, once afternoon heating got going
and the seabreeze developed, widespread showers and storms
developed across the Panhandle. A few have been locally strong
with damaging wind gusts the primary concern. Through the rest of
the day, these showers/storms will slowly move inland as they
fire on the western periphery of this trough. With storm motions
nearly parallel to the coastal seabreeze this evening, we'll need
to watch out for the potential of localized flooding due to
training storms, and with preciptable waters around 2.25 inches,
rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches/hour are likely. Some areas have
already picked up a decent amount of rain with radar estimates of
4 to 6 inches earlier this morning across Dixie county in the
Florida Big Bend. These storms will remain centered across the
Panhandle and possibly up into southeast Alabama later this
evening before activity begins to gradually diminish after sunset
as instability decreases. Across portions of southwest Georgia,
activity will be more isolated given lower preciptable waters and
less support aloft for storms.

Another active day for storms is forecast on Sunday as a weak
upper trough traverses the area and is supplied with plenty of
deep-layer moisture for storms. Additionally, with Saturday's weak
trough departing the region, we should at least have the
opportunity for ample sunshine before storms get going in the
afternoon hours. With plenty of sun and a very moist airmass this
will mean another afternoon with very warm temperatures. With air
temperatures topping out around the mid 90s, combined with mid-
upper 70s dewpoints, this will easily lead to heat indices around
110 on Sunday. Some locations could briefly heat 115 in the
Panhandle before storms get going in the afternoon. With
confidence fairly high in hitting 108 on the heat index we issued
a heat advisory for Sunday afternoon for most of the forecast
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023

West to northwest flow aloft is expected to continue through the
short term period with west to southwest winds at the surface.
This combination along with deep layer moisture overhead will lead
to hot and moist conditions with heat advisory conditions likely
across much of the area on Monday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will remain likely over the waters in the morning
before spreading inland throughout the day. Gusty winds along with
pockets of heavy rainfall will be possible with the stronger
storms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023

The overall pattern doesn't really change much for the long term
period with generally west to northwest flow aloft and southwest
winds at the surface. Expect hot temperatures to continue although
moisture does seem to lower just a bit, perhaps narrowly avoiding
heat advisory criteria. Seasonable rain chances are forecast to
prevail with scattered showers and storms each day. Can't rule out
a few MCSs rolling southeastward into the area from Alabama and
Georgia, but it's too far out to resolve those at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023

VFR conditions are likely to prevail through much of the TAF
period, though scattered showers/storms could briefly bring
MVFR/IFR conditions to TLH, ECP, and VLD after 20z. Thunderstorm
activity should diminish after 02z Sunday, with more
isolated/scattered activity on Sunday. Overnight, there is low
confidence in a MVFR/IFR cigs developing and possible patchy fog.
However, confidence in placement and time across the area is low
at this time so left out a mention in the 18z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023

Generally light west to southwest flow is expected to prevail
across the coastal waters through the weekend into early next
week, keeping seas generally two feet or less. Scattered
thunderstorms may lead to locally higher winds and seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023

Fairly typical summertime pattern is expected through the next
few days. The main concerns will be more hazardous heat as heat
indicies climb to around 108-110 across the area on Sunday.
Additionally, dispersions will be on the higher side, especially
on Monday as stronger westerly transport winds develop. Aside from
dispersions and hot temperatures, fire weather concerns will be
low through the period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023

Daily diurnal convection through the next several days will lead
to widespread rainfall amounts generally less than two inches.
With plenty of deep moisture in place, locally heavier amounts
could lead to some localized flooding. However, significant
flooding is not expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   76  96  76  96 /  20  50  20  50
Panama City   78  92  81  92 /  30  40  30  40
Dothan        74  96  75  96 /  10  60  30  30
Albany        75  97  75  96 /  10  60  30  30
Valdosta      74  96  74  96 /  10  40  20  40
Cross City    76  94  77  94 /  30  40  30  60
Apalachicola  78  91  80  92 /  30  50  30  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
     Sunday for FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-
     128-134.

     Heat Advisory until 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ this afternoon for
     FLZ007>010-012-108-112-114.

     High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening
     for FLZ114.

GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ120>127-
     142>146-155>161.

AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Camp

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