Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
250 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023

The upper low spinning over North Georgia will gradually lift north
into Tennessee and Kentucky on Thursday. The surface reflection will
move north as well. However, the forecast area will still be east of
these feature and remain in a moist unstable environment. While
conditions will remain marginally suitable for severe storms (the
forecast area will find itself under a 12th consecutive day of some
type of SPC convective outlook), our main concern will be flooding
rain. WPC has us in a slight risk for excessive rainfall (level 2
out of 4) for Thursday and we will maintain the flood watch. The
abundant cloud cover and numerous thunderstorms will keep max temps
below average, in the mid 80s for most areas, with upper 80s from
Tallahassee west across the FL Panhandle.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023

Cyclonic flow aloft will begin to turn more westerly on Saturday
as the deep layer trough pulls away. One more very wet day on
Friday with the potential for flooding continuing, which is
highlighted in the Hydrology section below. Some strong storms
are possible on Friday given modest instability and shear. A
drier air mass will finally begin to advect in on Saturday, with
highest PoPs confined to south of I-10.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023

The driest day of the period should be Sunday (PoPs 20-30%) before
a more seasonably moist air mass takes over during the early to
middle of next week, with PoPs closer to average (40-60%) on most
days. Will still need to monitor fast northwest flow aloft for
any potential MCS's that make a run at the region, but this
potential looks to remain to our west at this time. Temperatures
will be near seasonable levels through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023

Thunderstorms will impact ABY, DHN and ECP early in the period,
TLH in the later afternoon, and VLD in the evening. Gusty winds,
heavy rain and MVFR to IFR ceilings can be expected if a storm
nears a terminal. Some MVFR ceilings will persist overnight. Look
for another round of morning storms on Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 222 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023

A quasi-stationary front will remain draped northwest of the
waters, maintaining southwest winds over the next several days.
Southwest winds around 20 to 25 knots the rest of today will
decrease early tonight to 15 to 20 knots, and remain at that
level through Thursday. More tranquil boating conditions are
expected to settle into the waters on Friday and continue through
the upcoming weekend. The exception will be a higher coverage of
thunderstorms through Saturday, with locally higher winds and seas
at times.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023

Recent heavy rains and anticipated additional rounds of heavy rain
over the next couple of days preclude any fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 222 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023

Much of the region is saturated with rainfall amounts from 3 to 6+
inches over the past 3 days in some areas. Just today alone, radar
estimated rainfall of 3 to 5 inches over portions of Southwest GA
west of the Flint River and along the Gadsden/Leon County line.
This resulted in several reports of flooding between Dougherty and
Leon Counties. Additional rainfall of 2 to 5 inches with locally
higher amounts is forecast today through Friday across much of
the region. As a result, a Flood Watch remains in effect, as it
will only take 2-3 inch per hour rainfall rates to cause flash
flooding. On the area rivers, a Flood Warning remains in effect
for the Ochlockonee at Concord, and several area rivers remain in
action stage. Looking ahead, a drier pattern will begin to set
in late this weekend, and we'll continue to monitor area rivers
which will continue responding to runoff.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   70  86  72  85 /  80  90  60  90
Panama City   73  86  74  85 /  70  70  70  80
Dothan        69  85  69  86 /  60  70  50  70
Albany        69  84  69  85 /  70  80  60  80
Valdosta      69  84  70  84 /  90  90  60  90
Cross City    70  86  72  84 /  90  90  80  90
Apalachicola  74  85  74  84 /  80  80  80  90

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Friday evening for FLZ007>019-026>029-034-
     108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...Flood Watch through Friday evening for GAZ120>131-142>148-
     155>161.

AL...Flood Watch through Friday evening for ALZ065>069.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GMZ730-755-
     765-775.

&&

NEAR TERM...Wool
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...Wool
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...Wool
HYDROLOGY...LF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
510 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     Flash Flood      2 WSW Kinsey            31.29N 85.37W
06/21/2023                   Houston            AL   Public

            Additional flooding reported along US-431.
            Car stuck in median, flooded up to the
            passenger window.

&&

KGG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
545 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     Flash Flood      3 ENE Kinsey            31.31N 85.30W
06/21/2023                   Henry              AL   911 Call Center

            CR22 flooded at CR13.

&&

KGG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
546 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     Flash Flood      Kirkland Crossroads     31.40N 85.41W
06/21/2023                   Henry              AL   911 Call Center

            County Road 73 flooded at County Road 83
            South.

&&

KGG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
634 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023

FLZ015-026-027-115-127-212345-
Inland Franklin FL-Liberty FL-Coastal Wakulla FL-Coastal Franklin FL-
Inland Wakulla FL-
634 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of east central Gulf,
southwestern Wakulla, southern Liberty and Franklin Counties through
745 PM EDT...

At 633 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 14 miles north of Carrabelle to 8 miles
southeast of Wewahitchka. Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Carrabelle, Sopchoppy, Carrabelle Beach, Beverly, Panacea, Medart,
Buckhorn, Liveoak Island, Curtis Mill, Hays Place, Fort Gadsden,
Alligator Point, Buck Siding, Morgan Place, Saint Teresa, Turkey
Point, Bald Point, Panacea-Wakulla Airport, Mcintyre and High Bluff.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2982 8502 2990 8506 2995 8502 2998 8503
      3000 8506 3002 8510 3006 8512 3007 8462
      3012 8440 3007 8418 3000 8420 2999 8426
      2986 8429 2979 8502
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 282DEG 23KT 3006 8462 3005 8508

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

02-MONTGOMERY

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