Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
125 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1040 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

Updated the PoP forecast this morning to better align with the
current hi-res models. Currently, showers and thunderstorms
stretch from the western FL Panhandle through southeast AL and up
into southwest GA. The severe threat has primarily been confined
to our AL counties this morning, with hazards ranging from
damaging wind gusts to tornados. Expect this threat to continue
over the next few hours and extend into southern GA, especially if
atmosphere destabilizes more. The threat for FL exists, but at
this time the most favorable conditions appear to be in SW GA for
our service area.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

Not much has changed with the forecast today on the large scale. A
cold front will slowly approach the area today as upper level
forcing gradually weakens with the trough lifting north and west of
the region. However, we expect that there will be just enough
forcing for showers and thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front
across the area today. With moderate instability and shear, damaging
winds and hail are possible with some storms. Given sufficient
shear, a tornado or two could occur as well. SPC maintains a
Marginal Risk of severe weather for most of our area (level 1 of 5).
Looking at forecast soundings today, there is quite a bit of mid-
level dry air present, which really enhances DCAPE values up into
the 800-1000 j/kg range in some cases. These values are quite high
and would certainly support the potential for damaging wind gusts if
we get enough forcing to sustain convection.

Heading into tonight, storms will gradually weaken during the
evening hours after sunset. However, late in the night, there is
some uncertainty regarding whether a new round of storms will
develop across the northern portions of the forecast area. The 00z
HRRR was very bullish on this idea, but it appears to be an outlier
in terms of the hi-res guidance. Confidence is currently low on how
this convective evolution will play out along the weakening boundary
as models sometimes have trouble resolving weak forcing along a
surface boundary. For now, the official forecast followed the NBM
PoPs for late tonight with 20-30% chances across the northwest
portions of the area.

Temperatures will be above average today and tonight with highs in
the low to mid 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

Messy taf period expected with a broken line of thunderstorms
moving E across the area this afternoon and evening. A lull in
convection is expected overnight although LIFR to perhaps near
VLIFR ceilings are expected to set in during the early morning
hours Sunday. Clouds will gradually lift to IFR/MVFR through the
morning with scattered showers expected ahead of another round of
convection Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

Surface high pressure centered over Bermuda will maintain southerly
winds through early next week as it remains predominantly quasi-
stationary through Tuesday. A cold front is forecast to approach the
area today, and then stall before finally clearing the area by
Tuesday night as a re-enforcing trough digs south into the Mid-
Atlantic states. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible today through Tuesday until the stalled front from today
finally clears the area. Seas will generally be 2-4 feet through the
middle part of next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

Strong southwesterly transport winds of 20-25 mph will and mixing
height at or above 3,500 feet will lead to high dispersions across
the Alabama and Georgia zones today. However, showers and
thunderstorms are also anticipated, some of which could be strong to
severe. The rain chances continue Sunday and Monday along with a
lingering chance for strong storms, particularly across the Alabama
and Georgia zones.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

Widespread heavy rainfall is not expected with Saturday's cold
front. As the front is forecast to stall across the forecast area,
there could be pockets of localized heavy rainfall particularly
across SE Alabama and SW Georgia through Tuesday night. Currently
the timing and placement is still uncertain, and the location of the
heaviest rainfall primarily depends on the location of the
aforementioned quasi-stationary boundary. Current guidance continues
to favor the northern zones of the forecast area in SE Alabama and
SW Georgia where widespread totals of 1-3 inches are currently
forecast through Tuesday night.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage (while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting
us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   67  84  68  85 /  10  30  10  30
Panama City   67  79  68  79 /  10  30  20  30
Dothan        66  82  67  81 /  30  60  40  60
Albany        66  83  66  82 /  20  60  30  60
Valdosta      67  84  66  86 /  20  30  10  30
Cross City    66  83  64  84 /   0  10   0  10
Apalachicola  68  76  69  76 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Oliver

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>