Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
114 PM EST Fri Mar 10 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1034 AM EST Fri Mar 10 2023

A few cells have started to pop up across the CWA this morning.
Expect chances for rain and a few thunderstorms to increase
through the afternoon and into the early evening hours. The risk
for severe weather still exists, with the primary hazards for
today being damaging winds and hail. By late this evening and into
tonight, conditions will clear out.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 337 AM EST Fri Mar 10 2023

An upper trough will progress NE over the Great Lakes
throughout the day with some shortwave perturbations traveling
along the NE edge of the subtropical ridge over the CWA with NW
flow aloft. At the surface, a low has formed over the Ohio Valley
with a cold front expected to enter the area in the afternoon to
evening hours. Ample moisture will be in place via southerly flow
that has been occurring throughout the night. The small upper
level perturbations + surface low attendant cold front will
provide more than enough forcing for a stormy afternoon across the
area bringing a much needed rain. The current thinking is that
storms will remain marginally severe as SPC has maintained the
original marginal risk from yesterday (1/5) with a focus on wind
and small hail. Strong deep layer shear with weak low-level shear
and a unidirectional shear profile will drive the wind and hail
risk with a linear storm mode expected as 0-6km bulk shear vectors
appear relatively parallel to the forcing. However, despite CAPE
ranging from 1000-1500J/kg, thermodynamic profiles appear to be
quite warm in the midlevels with lapse rates around 6-6.5C/km
which may lead to the hail risk remaining quite isolated
throughout the event.

Cloud cover will hinder daytime heating with southerly flow being
the main source of heating today bringing temperatures across the
area into the low to upper 70's, decreasing with northward extent.
Post-frontal overnight lows will likely be in the low to mid 50s
near the coast with mid to upper 40s farther inland as cooler
continental air enters the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 337 AM EST Fri Mar 10 2023

Post-frontal dry conditions are expected on Saturday with highs in
the 70s. Any respite from the front will be short-lived as winds
quickly become onshore once again Saturday night, kicking off
another warming and moistening trend ahead of the next frontal
system. On Sunday the previous front is forecast to move northward
across the area as a warm front connected to a surface low moving
across the southeast CONUS. This low pressure system will drag a
stronger cold front through the area Sunday night through Monday.
Some storms with this system could be strong to severe with
damaging winds, a brief tornado, and small hail as the primary
threats. Much cooler and drier conditions are expected in the wake
of the front with high temperatures on Tuesday forecast in the low
to mid 60s. Low temperatures are forecast to bottom out in the mid
30s to near 40 Tuesday night. After that, a gradual warming and
moistening trend kicks off across the region for the rest of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 PM EST Fri Mar 10 2023

Showers and thunderstorms have developed over the region with the
trend continuing for the afternoon. Conditions at the TAF sites
currently range from VFR to MVFR, but if a heavier shower or storm
rolls through we could get brief periods of lower conditions.
Chances for rain begin to taper from west to east later this
afternoon, with dry conditions by the mid to late evening. Skies
should clear and winds should remain elevated leaving us with VFR
conditions overnight

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 337 AM EST Fri Mar 10 2023

A series of cold fronts will move through the waters over the
next week with winds generally around 10 to 15 knots for most of
the period. Winds will generally be lightest between fronts and
highest in the immediate periods before and after frontal passage.
Waves will run around 2 to 3 feet through much of the week with
occasional seas near 4-5 feet around frontal passages.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 337 AM EST Fri Mar 10 2023

Moisture recovery is underway across the area via southerly
flow, revitalizing our RH values that have been quite low as of
late. A cold front is expected to bring rain to nearly the entire
forecast area with thunderstorms possible today. Saturday will be
quite calm with higher mixing heights but quite low transport winds,
which may result in some lower-end dispersions across the area
although not quite meeting the "low dispersion" criteria.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 337 AM EST Fri Mar 10 2023

Several cold fronts are forecast to push through the area over the
next week; however heavy rainfall is not expected. Area rivers and
streams remain in good shape, and no flooding is expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   51  76  55  81 /  40   0   0  40
Panama City   54  75  63  78 /  20   0   0  30
Dothan        45  73  54  80 /  10   0   0  70
Albany        44  71  51  79 /  10   0  10  70
Valdosta      47  74  49  80 /  30   0   0  50
Cross City    55  78  52  80 /  40   0   0  20
Apalachicola  57  72  63  76 /  20   0   0  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Saturday for
     FLZ112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Worster
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Worster
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield

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