Severe Thunderstorm Warning 577, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
749 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 407 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

Another round of seasonably warm temperatures and scattered
storms appear likely tomorrow. A few upper level perturbations are
forecast to slide into our area throughout the near term from the
northwest throughout the day tomorrow resulting in multiple rounds
of showers and storms. At the surface, a diffuse cold front will
continue to slowly sag down through the area from the NW providing
ample lift, mostly confined to our southeasternmost tier of GA
counties and most of our FL counties with the highest PoP's (40-60%)
in our eastern Panhandle to Big Bend counties. Some reinvigoration
should occur in the early morning hours with scattered thunderstorms
possible.

In the afternoon to evening hours, some stronger to possibly severe
storms appear possible closer to the FL Big Bend. SBCAPE is forecast
to reach 3000J/kg amidst a well mixed boundary layer, steepening 0-
3km lapse rates to around 8C/km which will in turn raise DCAPE
values to around 1000-1200J/kg. Eff. shear around 20-30kts should
also help these storms sustain themselves for an extended period of
time. Strong to severe wind gusts appear appear possible with any
storm that can mature, or if cell mergers occur.

Lastly, the post-frontal environment in our SE AL counties may
undergo some strong mixing as relatively dry air aloft makes its way
to the surface. Dewpoints are currently forecast to drop to the low
60s, perhaps even as low as the upper 50s which will result
in some extremely pleasant conditions in the afternoon hours.

Tomorrow morning, low temperatures will hover around the upper 60s
to low 70s with afternoon highs in the low 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 407 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

Mid to upper-level troughing remains established across region with
another vorticity lobe rotating through its base. Meanwhile, the
attendant frontal boundary gets hung up over us, so unsettled
weather is likely to continue for parts of the Tri-State area. The
best chances for showers and thunderstorms are along the coast,
offshore, and within the interstate corridors where the greatest
moisture appears to reside. This slug of moisture gets tugged NE by
the aforementioned vort lobe as midway this weekend, which should
allow the axis of precipitation to shift from west to east.

The increased cloud cover keeps daytime highs in the low 90s and
heat indices below triple digits. Overnight lows range from the low
70s to upper 60s away from the coast. The Wiregrass Region is likely
to feel the coolest during the AM hrs given lingering relatively
drier air in place.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 407 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

Dry air will continue to dominate the first half of next week, with
dewpoints remaining low in the wake of Friday's cold front. As such,
precipitation chances will stay below 30 percent areawide until next
Thursday. While a pop-up seabreeze convection cannot be ruled out
during this period, widespread showers or thunderstorms are not
expected at this time. Temperatures will remain fairly consistent
over the next week, with highs remaining in the low 90s and lows
staying in the low 70s. Precipitation chances and cloud cover may
increase at the very end of the period on next Thursday into next
weekend, but it is still too early to determine exactly how much
precipitation the region could see.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 737 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

The frontal boundary remains over the area. As we move into the
late night hours, convection should decrease and VFR conditions
will persist outside of thunderstorm activity. Early tomorrow
morning, the frontal boundary is expected to cause convection to
develop once more. Convection will mainly affect KTLH, KVLD, and
KECP terminals. Flight conditions will remain VFR outside of
thunderstrom activity.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 407 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

Generally favorable boating conditions will prevail over the next
week, with light west-to-southwesterly winds occurring throughout
the entire period. The only marine concerns are thunderstorms
capable of gusty winds, lightning, and potential waterspouts. A
front dropping into the waters increases thunderstorm chances into
the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 407 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

On Friday afternoon and on Sunday afternoon, high dispersion values
are forecast in the Wiregrass region. Minimum RH values approach
critical thresholds tomorrow across the Wiregrass where a strong
post-frontal moisture gradient is likely to reside. Humidity
gradually decreases through this weekend. Precipitation chances will
generally decrease over the next three days, with the highest
chances for a wetting rain on Friday and Saturday afternoon along
and southeast of the I-10 and I-75 corridors. Prevailing southwest
transport winds will occur over the region through the next three
days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 407 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

Flooding concerns are minimal over the next several days. The best
chances for any meaningful rainfall is the rest of today and
tomorrow from an approaching frontal boundary. Drier weather looks
to prevail beyond this weekend. In terms of rivers, Aucilla Lamont
(US 27) is forecast to drop below action stage late Saturday or
early Sunday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   71  91  71  90 /  50  60  30  40
Panama City   75  89  74  89 /  50  40  20  20
Dothan        69  91  68  91 /  30  20   0  20
Albany        69  91  69  91 /  50  30  10  30
Valdosta      69  89  69  90 /  50  50  20  50
Cross City    71  90  70  91 /  40  50  40  60
Apalachicola  74  87  76  87 /  60  50  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Worster
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....RMS
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...RMS
FIRE WEATHER...RMS
HYDROLOGY...IG3

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
840 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 N Spring Creek        30.10N 84.33W
09/07/2023                   Wakulla            FL   911 Call Center

            911 dispatch reports a tree on a house.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
850 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

FLZ115-080115-
Coastal Franklin FL-
850 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY
THROUGH 915 PM EDT...

At 850 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles south of Crawfordville, moving south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Alligator Point, Saint Teresa, Turkey Point, and Bald Point.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2986 8451 2996 8452 2993 8440 2996 8431
      2987 8428 2984 8434 2983 8444
TIME...MOT...LOC 0050Z 349DEG 17KT 3000 8437

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

99-OLIVER

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
851 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0812 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 WSW Shadeville        30.19N 84.34W
09/07/2023                   Wakulla            FL   911 Call Center

            Wakulla county dispatch reports a power line
            down on Shadeville Rd near Gala Ct.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
852 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0812 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Shadeville              30.20N 84.30W
09/07/2023                   Wakulla            FL   911 Call Center

            Wakulla County dispatch reports a power line
            down on Shadeville Rd near Andrew J Hargrett
            Sr Rd.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
853 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 E Tully               30.10N 84.36W
09/07/2023                   Wakulla            FL   911 Call Center

            Wakulla County dispatch reports a tree down
            on Jack Crum Rd at Santa Emma Ln.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
855 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 N Spring Creek        30.11N 84.32W
09/07/2023                   Wakulla            FL   911 Call Center

            Wakulla County dispatch reports a tree down
            on Spring Creek Hwy at I K Porter Rd.

&&