Severe Thunderstorm Warning 556, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
258 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

The heat will make way for showers and thunderstorms this evening.
Ahead of a weak cold front, mid-level lapse rates and instability
will allow for widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms later
this afternoon and expected to persist into the overnight hours.
These storms will be capable of producing strong gusty winds. Storms
that develop are expected to move rather slowly, so heavy downpours
that could lead to nuisance flooding will also be a concern. The SPC
and WPC have highlighted the region today through tonight in a
Marginal risk for severe weather and excessive rainfall
respectively. The front will still be traversing east/southeast
across the region on Wednesday, keeping rain in the forecast. Behind
the front, drier air is expected to reduce the precip chances for
our SE Alabama counties. Temperatures will be slightly cooler on
Wednesday due to the rain and the frontal passage.

PoPs for this evening will increase through the afternoon hours with
a widespread 60 to 70 percent, with the highest chances expected
over SE AL and SW GA where the front will be first approaching.
Overnight, rain chances drop off a bit as the air stabilizes a
little. Rain chances pick up again Wednesday afternoon, mainly in
the FL Big Bend region along the frontal boundary. PoPs will be
around 70-80 percent for the FL Big Bend. As mentioned earlier,
there will be a sharp gradient behind the front as drier air will
filter in, lowering PoPs to the northwest.

Temperatures on Wednesday will be in the low 90s for the afternoon
with heat indices reaching 106 along the immediate coast, below heat
advisory criteria. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

Weak front will continue to slide south and east Wednesday night
and Thursday, but as the parent supporting trough lifts northeast,
the front will eventually wash out Thursday night as ridging from
an upper high builds in. Best rain chances Thursday will be along
the coast and eastern Big Bend with lesser chances further north
as drier air builds in from the north through the day Thursday and
Thursday night. Highs Thursday will remain tempered somewhat by
clouds and rain chances especially through our Florida counties
with highs in the low 90s. Further west, highs will return to the
mid 90s with decreasing clouds. Dewpoints in this area will be in
the upper 60s so heat indices will top out in the mid to upper
90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

By Friday the area will be in a post frontal regime with an upper
high situated in the southern Plains and north to northeast upper
flow set up through the southeast US. The drier air from the north
will help suppress shower and thunderstorm activity with mainly
below normal rain chances this period. A tropical wave will move
through the Gulf this weekend and early next week but will be kept
mostly south of the area due to the sprawling upper high. A
relative return to the heat will occur with upper 90s and around
100 degrees will return but the drier air will help keep us out of
excessive heat indices.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 127 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

Showers and thunderstorms are firing up and moving inland from
the coast affecting our southern terminals. A cold front will move
in from the northwest which will bring thunderstorms to the DHN
and ABY terminals around 20z. Thunderstorms will be capable of
producing strong gusty winds. Vsbys may be reduced in heavier
thunderstorms. VFR cigs are expected through the TAF period except
for DHN and ABY where a low deck of SCT to BKN clouds are
expected around daybreak, but should lift by mid morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

A frontal boundary will slowly approach the marine waters through
Thursday with fairly widespread coverage of storms expected,
especially in the overnight hours. Winds will generally remain
light around 5 to 10 knots with seas around 2 feet through the
rest of the week. Favorable marine conditions will continue into
the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

Wet weather is expected throughout the day on Wednesday, which will
also have slightly cooler temperatures. The thunderstorms may bring
erratic winds and frequent lightning. Storms will not be moving
quickly so, decent downpours can be expected. Precip activity is
expected to begin clearing Wednesday afternoon for our SE AL
counties as drier air begins to filter in. On Thursday, dispersions
will increase for areas along and north of I-10, with values above
70 in our Alabama and Georgia districts, while rain chances remain
for the Florida districts.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

A slow moving cold front will slide through the area through
Thursday and help focus rain chances along and to the south of
this feature. 1 to 3 inches of rainfall can be expected during
this time with decreasing moisture behind the front heading into
the weekend. No widespread flooding is anticipated but minor
nuisance flooding could occur in poor drainage areas.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   74  92  74  91 /  50  80  40  50
Panama City   78  90  78  91 /  50  60  40  40
Dothan        73  91  71  93 /  70  40  20  20
Albany        73  90  72  92 /  70  50  30  20
Valdosta      74  92  73  91 /  50  80  40  50
Cross City    76  91  76  90 /  60  80  60  80
Apalachicola  79  90  79  90 /  60  70  60  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ015>019-026>029-
     034-115-118-127-128-134.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening
     for FLZ007>014-108-112-114.

     High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for
     FLZ114.

GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ120>131-142>148-
     155>161.

AL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Montgomery
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...Scholl

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