Severe Thunderstorm Warning 540, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
301 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Extremely dangerous heat is expected to continue across the entire
region on Sunday as the upper level ridge that was previously
centered over southern Alabama will settle into the tri-state region
by Sunday afternoon. Air temperatures are expected to top out in the
upper 90s, with many areas reaching triple digits through the
afternoon hours. Dewpoints are expected to remain high across the
region, with values in the mid to upper 70s, and even low 80s for
those along the coast forecast for Sunday. This will lead to quite
dangerous heat index values to 113 or higher over much of the
region. Portions of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend might
possibly see heat index values near 120 degrees or possibly higher
for an hour or two Sunday afternoon. Given this dangerous heat
expected, the entire forecast area is currently under an Excessive
Heat Watch for Sunday.

The only reprieve some lucky few might see from the heat is with the
possibility of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm that may develop
along a weak quasi-stationary southwest to northeast orientated
surface boundary. Any storms that do develop may have the
possibility of developing strong gusty winds as DCAPE values are
forecast above 1000 J/Kg on Sunday. Much of the area has a 30-40
percent chance of seeing a shower or thunderstorm on Sunday. The
building upper level ridge over the region will likely instill
enough subsidence areawide to prevent storm initiation, which will
help us reach the dangerously high temperatures and heat index
values across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

No relief from the dangerous heat on Monday and Tuesday. A very hot
and moist air mass will remain. Ridging aloft begins to breakdown on
Monday with the approach of a front on Tuesday. PoPs on Monday of 30-
40 pct increase to 40-50 pct on Tuesday. Heat indices/Apparent temps
will range from 110 to 115 on Monday and 107 to 112 on Tuesday, so
dangerous heat will continue, with the likely continuation of heat
advisories and/or excessive heat warnings both days. On Tuesday, a
stronger wind field aloft and greater CAPE indicated by ensembles
will lead to the potential for strong storms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Lower heat index/apparent temps are expected beginning Wednesday.
A weak front will stall across the region in the Wednesday through
Friday time frame. The flow will become a bit more cyclonic aloft as
a trough develops between a ridge centered over the plains states
and the subtropical high to the east. The GFS ensembles are more
bullish on this compared to the Euro ensembles, with some showing
deep southerly flow. The most likely solution is a gradient in
moisture across the region, but there is disagreement on whether
this is more east-west or north-south oriented. For now, our PoP
forecast splits the difference, with the highest values roughly
southeast of a Tift to Panama City line. Confidence is medium at
best given the uncertainty with further adjustments likely. A less
likely solution is for more of a deep southerly flow to develop,
which would increase PoPs across much of the region. Regardless of
the scenario, there are hydrology concerns, which are highlighted
in that section below. By Saturday, ensembles indicate a seasonal
pattern developing, with PoPs reflecting this, ranging 30-50 pct.
With the front in the vicinity resulting in a wetter pattern,
heat index/apparent temperatures should decrease from mid to late
week, ranging from 100 to 105. However, values of 105 to 110 will
still be possible in the FL Counties.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

VFR conditions look to prevail through the remainder of the TAF
period; however, vicinity thunderstorms may cause local MVFR to LIFR
conditions at TLH, ECP, and DHN this afternoon. These diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms should dissipate shortly after 00
UTC this evening. VFR conditions look to return to these sites for
the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

High pressure situated just southeast of the waters will maintain
fairly tranquil conditions this weekend into the middle of next
week, with westerly winds around 10 knots and seas around 2 feet.
The exception will be locally higher winds and seas in and around
thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

High temperatures will be hot across the region, with near triple
digit highs forecast for the next several days. Although
temperatures will be hot areawide, abundant moisture is expected to
be in place, with minimum RH values only dropping into the mid 40s
during the peak of afternoon mixing. Transport winds are expected to
remain fairly light with winds less than 10 mph anticipated out of
the west/southwest for the next several days. Given the hot
temperatures, burning is discouraged; however, with abundant
moisture and light winds forecast, there are no other fire weather
concerns at this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

A front will approach on Tuesday and stall near the region from
mid to late week. With the boundary in place, Precipitable Water
values near 2 inches, and slow storm motions, there is a marginal
risk of excessive rainfall from late Tuesday into Friday. Still
uncertainty on where the heaviest amounts will occur, but they're
currently favored southeast of a Tift to Panama City line, where
isolated flash flooding will be possible.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee  100  79 100  79 /  40  10  40  20
Panama City   95  82  95  82 /  50  10  30  20
Dothan        99  76  99  77 /  50  20  40  20
Albany        98  77  99  78 /  20  10  40  20
Valdosta      98  77 100  78 /  20  10  30  10
Cross City    97  78  98  78 /  30  10  30  20
Apalachicola  94  81  94  82 /  40  10  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening
     for FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.

     Excessive Heat Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.

     High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EDT /midnight CDT/ Sunday for
     FLZ112-114.

GA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.

     Excessive Heat Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.

AL...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     ALZ065>069.

     Excessive Heat Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Bunker
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...Bunker
HYDROLOGY...LF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
349 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

ALZ065>069-122145-
Dale AL-Henry AL-Coffee AL-Geneva AL-Houston AL-
349 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Dale, southwestern
Henry, eastern Coffee, northeastern Geneva and central Houston
Counties through 445 PM CDT...

At 349 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Ariton to Fort Novosel to 8 miles north of
Geneva. Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Daleville, Fort Novosel, Enterprise, Headland, Dothan, Ozark,
Hartford, Taylor, Midland City, Kinsey, Level Plains, Slocomb,
Cowarts, Newton, Webb, New Brockton, Ariton, Pinckard, Malvern and
Rehobeth.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3162 8550 3130 8527 3110 8525 3107 8548
      3113 8591 3138 8597 3162 8598
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 266DEG 21KT 3162 8578 3140 8578 3115 8587

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

01-GONZALEZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
455 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

FLZ012>014-112-122130-
Coastal Bay FL-Inland Bay FL-Calhoun FL-Inland Gulf FL-
455 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Gulf,
east central Bay and southwestern Calhoun Counties in the Panhandle
of Florida through 530 PM EDT/430 PM CDT/...

At 455 PM EDT/355 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 10 miles northeast of Callaway. This storm was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Stonemill Creek, Wewahitchka, Nixon, Youngstown, Cairo, Kinard, Broad
Branch, Chipola Park, Majette and Saunders.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3034 8552 3043 8543 3026 8511 3016 8515
      3005 8530 3015 8550
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 346DEG 2KT 3021 8541

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

21-HANER

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 ENE Choctaw Beach     30.48N 86.33W
08/12/2023  M56 MPH          Walton             FL   Mesonet

            Courtesy FSWN Choctaw Beach weatherstem
            site.

&&

Haner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
512 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

FLZ016-017-026-027-127-122145-
Liberty FL-Gadsden FL-Coastal Wakulla FL-Inland Wakulla FL-Leon FL-
512 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Wakulla,
southwestern Gadsden, Liberty and southwestern Leon Counties through
545 PM EDT...

At 512 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles west of Crawfordville. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sopchoppy, Telogia, East Camp, Rock Bluff, Jewel Fire Tower, Vilas,
Hosford, Jensen Place, Central City, Sanborn, Clio, Poplar Camp,
Smith Creek, Lowry, Wetumpka, Nixon Garden, Bloxham, Twin Pole and
Curtis Mill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3000 8452 3001 8453 3000 8454 3001 8455
      3001 8476 3011 8492 3055 8498 3056 8497
      3049 8462 3027 8456 3005 8447 2999 8450
      2999 8451 2998 8451 2998 8452
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 230DEG 3KT 3016 8462

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

21-HANER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
516 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

ALZ067-GAZ121-142-122145-
Henry AL-Clay GA-Early GA-
516 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Henry, Clay and
northwestern Early Counties through 545 PM EDT/445 PM CDT/...

At 515 PM EDT/415 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Fort Gaines to near
Abbeville to 10 miles northwest of Headland. Movement was southeast
at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Abbeville, Fort Gaines, Headland, Newville, Bellville, Haleburg,
Shorterville, Walter F. George Lock And Dam, Walter F George Lake,
Tumbleton, Kirkland Crossroads, Standleys Store, Grandberry
Crossroads, Hayes, Scottsboro Crossroads, Double Bridges, Pecan,
Graball, Headland Municipal A/P and Dancey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3169 8495 3168 8495 3167 8493 3162 8494
      3162 8488 3136 8506 3131 8540 3132 8540
      3137 8542 3163 8542 3165 8527 3177 8515
      3177 8512 3178 8514 3178 8512
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 331DEG 10KT 3170 8505 3152 8518 3148 8543

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

21-HANER

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