Severe Thunderstorm Warning 470, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
352 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

......A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DANGEROUS HEAT ARRIVES TOMORROW...
IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms with associated outflow boundaries
from this afternoon may persist into the early evening mainly across
the FL Panhandle/Western Big Bend. Convection should overall be on a
diminishing trend after sunset as daytime instability wanes. A
quiet, but muggy night is on tap as lows merely drop into the mid
70s away from the immediate coast.

There are two main concerns for tomorrow:

1) Dangerous heat - widespread peak feels-like temperatures ranging
from about 108-115 degrees. A strong, persistent ridge attempts to
build in from the west in response to a lifting area of low pressure
and associated weak upper trough currently over the Coastal
Carolinas. Mid-level thickness values are expected to rise, which
should allow high temperatures to soar into the mid-upper 90s, while
widespread 70s dew points push heat indices closer to the 110s.
Since convection aims to get a later start compared to today, it
should allow most land areas to be unimpeded from cooking into the
afternoon.

2) Severe weather - a broad-brushed Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5)
across the Deep South. The Tri-State area is expected to be under
the often worrisome NW flow regime that tends to act as a "conveyor
belt" for funneling in upstream MCSs. Remnant outflow from one
currently moving across the TN Valley likely acts a forcing
mechanism for convection tomorrow. Additional development should
occur along the seabreeze, followed by future mesoscale boundary
interactions. The seasonably moist/unstable environment will be
supportive of robust thunderstorms capable of strong to isolated
damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, small hail, and heavy
downpours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday Night through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Rather active time frame with continued dangerous heat and MCS's
making runs at the region. Deep level ridging centered just to our
west will lock in northwest flow aloft. This acts in suppressing
the sea breeze, reducing PoPs, and allowing high temperatures to
reach the middle and upper 90s. A prolonged period of heat
indices in excess of 108 deg is increasing likely through at least
Wednesday, especially in the FL Counties, where heat indices at
or greater than 113 deg are possible on Monday.

Will also have to watch several MCS's in the northwest flow aloft
that may enter the region late this weekend into midweek, as early
as Sunday Night. Strong mid-level winds could favor severe weather
if these materialize, especially Tuesday and Wednesday, while MCS
timing is also uncertain, PoPs would need to be adjusted upward.
The silver lining would be greater cloud cover/higher PoPs with
any MCS would punctuate the heat if it coincides with max daytime
heating.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Not a whole lot of change in the pattern between Thursday and
Saturday. Deep layer ridging is expected to flatten out a bit, with
the westerlies gradually shifting northward. There is still the
potential for excessive heat, albeit lower compared to earlier in
the week. Cannot rule out another MCS into at least Thursday, when
the flow aloft is still robust, with severe weather possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Main focus for this afternoon is convection. A persistent cluster of
gusty t-storms continues to push south towards the FL/GA border.
This activity has already impacted ABY/VLD and looks affect TLH
next. Add'l storms aim to form along the seabreeze and interact
w/ongoing cells into the early evening for which TLH/ECP will be
susceptible to. Confidence is lower at DHN/ABY, but maintained VCTS
for the next few hrs. Precip should dwindle after sunset, paving the
way for a quiet rest of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Relatively flat seas today into tonight. Westerly winds increasing
on Sunday will build wave heights to 1 to 2 feet, possibly 3 feet
near the inlets of the Emerald Coast with the outgoing tide. Expect
these conditions to persist through at least Tuesday, with lighter
winds returning from mid to late week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

The main concerns the next 3 days are dangerous heat, gusty/erratic
winds from thunderstorms, and high afternoon dispersions mainly
across the Wiregrass Region. Severe weather is possible tomorrow, in
addition to pockets of wetting rains. Otherwise, the continued
presence of a moist airmass should keep any fire threats minimal.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Precipitation will be below average, other that isolated higher
amounts in thunderstorms over the next week. As such, no land or
riverine flooding issues are anticipated.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   94  77  98  78 /  50  20  50  20
Panama City   92  80  94  81 /  40  10  30  20
Dothan        94  74  98  76 /  50  20  30  20
Albany        93  75  98  75 /  40  20  20  20
Valdosta      92  74  96  75 /  50  30  40  20
Cross City    93  78  96  79 /  50  20  60  30
Apalachicola  90  80  93  81 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ028-029-034-
     128-134.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ to 7 PM EDT /6
     PM CDT/ Sunday for FLZ007>019-026-027-108-112-114-115-118-
     127.

GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ120>131-
     142>148-155>161.

AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM CDT Sunday for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...LF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
425 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

ALZ069-GAZ142>144-155-156-292115-
Houston AL-Miller GA-Decatur GA-Baker GA-Seminole GA-Early GA-
425 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Houston,
north central Decatur, Miller, southwestern Baker, southern Early and
northern Seminole Counties through 515 PM EDT/415 PM CDT/...

At 424 PM EDT/324 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 11 miles south of Columbia
to near Donalsonville to 6 miles southeast of Colquitt. Movement was
south at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Colquitt, Donalsonville, Gordon, Iron City, Damascus, Brinson, Jakin,
Saffold, Ausmac, Babcock, Crosby, Little Hope, Mayhaw, Decatur Co
A/P, Boykin, Riverturn, Sharphagen, Donaldsonville A/P, Farley
Nuclear Plant and Bellview.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3136 8462 3099 8450 3094 8481 3098 8501
      3100 8500 3100 8512 3122 8512 3126 8485
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 357DEG 6KT 3114 8504 3109 8484 3113 8464

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

73-YOUNG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
502 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

FLZ015-026-115-292145-
Inland Franklin FL-Liberty FL-Coastal Franklin FL-
502 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Liberty
and northeastern Franklin Counties through 545 PM EDT...

At 502 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Carrabelle, moving southwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Carrabelle, Carrabelle Beach, Morgan Place, Turkey Point, Royal
Bluff, High Bluff, Yent Place, Lanark Village and St George Island St
Pk.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2999 8499 3007 8463 3006 8463 3007 8462
      3006 8461 3004 8460 3004 8459 3002 8457
      3002 8456 2989 8446 2966 8476
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 056DEG 13KT 2997 8464

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JCW

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>