Severe Thunderstorm Warning 458, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
120 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023

The previous forecast appears to be on track. Scattered to
widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
across the area this afternoon with damaging winds, hail, and
heavy rainfall possible. SPC has upgraded much of the area to a
Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather today. A heat
advisory remains in effect for all our Florida counties.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023

A continuation of the pattern change that began yesterday will
bring even greater shower/thunderstorm chances to the tri-state
region today. Overnight, strong thunderstorms pushed through
southwest Georgia as the upper level ridge broke down and for this
afternoon a broad upper level trough will be in place overhead.
At the surface, a weak frontal boundary associated with this
trough will drift south. With increased support aloft over an
unstable airmass and increased convergence thanks to the
seabreeze, it should be a active afternoon. The main activity will
wait to develop until the early afternoon, but a few isolated
showers/storms could develop early in the morning thanks to a
decaying outflow boundary from Friday evenings storms. We're
beginning to see this now with showers storms across central
Alabama into southwest Georgia.

With most of the activity, especially across Florida, not getting
going until the afternoon period we're likely to see at least one
more afternoon of hot temperatures with the heat indicies
climbing to near 110 deg F across the Panhandle and Big Bend. So
one more heat advisory was issued for this afternoon in these
areas.

With moderate/high instability forecast to develop again along
with steep lower level lapse rates, damaging wind gusts will be
the primary concerns with strong/severe storms. For this reason a
marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe weather is in place for
much of southern Alabama/Georgia and our Florida counties. In
addition to severe potential, high PWATs in place will lead to
high rainfall rates so any slow moving/training storms will have
the potential to produce localized flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue on Sunday as
the upper level troughing continues to deepen over the region.
High instability, decent deep-layer shear, and steep low/mid-level
lapse rates prevail through the day, allowing for thunderstorms
to become strong with gusty winds being the main concern. With the
moist air mass remaining, heavy rainfall leading to possible
flash flooding will also be a concern with the storms that
develop. But, a frontal boundary will have begun its passage
through the CWA, allowing for drier air to attempt to filter in
from the north during the day on Sunday through Monday. PoPs will
be more concentrated along and south of I-10 with about a 90
percent chance. Areas to the north have about a 70 to 80 percent
chance during the afternoon hours. With the heavy rain expected,
the WPC has the area highlighted in a Marginal (1 of 4) risk for
excessive rainfall for Sunday.

The trough will begin to slowly lift to the north during the day
on Monday, lowering precip chances during the day. Most of the
precip will be along and south of I-10 to the I-75 corridor and
over the marine zones with PoPs ranging from 50-70 percent. North
of I-10, PoPs will be around 20 to 40 percent.

Because of the showers and thunderstorms, continuous cloud cover
will provide a reprieve from the hot temperatures. Our high
temperatures for Sunday will be in the upper 80s with heat indices
in the upper 90s. Monday will have high temperatures in the low
90s. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023

The upper level trough will be lifting at the start of the long
term. The ridge building to the west will become more influential
in bringing up our temperatures and capping PoPs around 40 percent
each afternoon in more typical summertime pattern with the sea
breeze initiating most of the convection. Temperatures will be in
the mid- 90s for the afternoon highs and low to mid-70s for the
morning lows. Max heat indices for this term are forecast to be in
the low-100s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 116 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023

MVFR/IFR conditions (in thunderstorms) are currently being
observed, or will be observed through the remainder of the
afternoon and evening hours at all terminals across the forecast
area today. Lingering shower activity looks possible across ECP
and TLH through the overnight hours, which look to transition to
thunderstorm activity by the mid morning hours. These
thunderstorms could once again bring periods of MVFR/IFR
conditions. Shower and thunderstorm activity looks to spread
inland throughout the remainder of the morning and afternoon hours
to affect ABY, DHN, and VLD. Outside of shower and thunderstorm
activity expect relatively light winds out of the southwest at all
terminals through most of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023

Showers and thunderstorms become more numerous this weekend.
Increase in winds and seas will be possible in and around
thunderstorms, along with frequent lightning, possible small hail,
and waterspouts. Winds will generally be westerly/southwesterly
around 15 knots or less through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023

Another day of hot temperatures are expected with more widespread
showers/storms developing later this afternoon. The wetter conditions
will keep fire weather concerns low. The only concerns will be
the potential for strong winds in the vicinity of thunderstorms
and high dispersions across the Florida Big Bend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023

A wet pattern will continue through this weekend. Isolated Flash
flooding will be a concern with the heavier storms and the
possibility of storms training as we are expecting multiple rounds
of storms. We can expect a widespread amount of 1-2 inches of
rainfall, with isolated areas receiving higher amounts by early
midweek. Through the period, we will transition to a more typical
summertime diurnal pattern. Although rivers are in good condition,
there may be some rises depending on location and how much
precipitation we receive.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   75  87  73  90 /  50  90  40  50
Panama City   76  87  75  89 /  50 100  50  50
Dothan        72  86  71  90 /  70  80  20  20
Albany        72  86  71  90 /  60  70  20  20
Valdosta      74  87  72  90 /  50  90  30  40
Cross City    77  90  76  88 /  40  90  60  80
Apalachicola  78  87  77  87 /  50 100  70  70

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery

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