Severe Thunderstorm Warning 424, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
710 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

Widespread showers and storms currently should continue through much
of the afternoon and into the evening hours. While the Florida
counties are getting much of the convection currently, storms
coverage should gradually increase somewhat into the evening hours
across southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. While there is a
little less instability across these areas currently, northward
moving outflow boundaries, plenty of solar insolation, and the
remnants of an earlier MCS to the west should at least provide the
spark for more development. Expect this coverage to last into the
evening hours with activity slowly decreasing from sunset into and
just after midnight.

Broad cyclonic flow over a moist tropical airmass in the southeast
US continues on Sunday. The weak vort max that's been lingering
overhead since Friday will weaken and translate east on Sunday but
there will still be plenty of support given the moisture in place
for widespread showers and storms. A weak impulse moving towards the
forecast area in the afternoon will also further spark storm
development in the afternoon. While coverage might not be as high as
we're observing today, rain chances still remain around 60-80%,
especially across our Florida counties. The main concerns with
storms on Sunday will again be flooding given the high preciptable
waters and heavier rains we've seen as of late.

&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

A transition to a drier and hotter pattern is expected for the
short and long term as ridging to the west builds eastward over
the area. While deep layer moisture remains overhead, this ridging
will help lower rain chances to only isolated or scattered showers
and storms mostly along the afternoon sea breeze. High
temperatures are forecast to climb over the next several days as
well, topping out in the mid to upper 90s around midweek with a
couple spots of near 100 also possible. Heat indices will also
generally stay in the 103 to 110 degree range for most of the
period, and heat advisories may be needed for several days. Low
temperatures may also exacerbate any heat issues by remaining in
the mid to upper 70s, leaving little if any opportunity to really
cool off during the overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 703 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

Showers and thunderstorms this evening are currently moving across
SW Georgia, and will likely impact ABY and VLD over the next 1-3
hours. Similarly, there is convection in the area of ECP; however,
it is moving out of the area, and should not pose too large of an
impact to operations at ECP by the 00 UTC time frame. Overnight,
DHN and VLD could see some MVFR CIGS move into the area before
lifting shortly after sunrise. Tomorrow looks to be active once
again in the afternoon and evening hours, with all terminals
potentially seeing impacts from shower and thunderstorm activity.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

Daily chances of rain are expected due to the land breeze
circulation. Showers and thunderstorms will be most likely during
the late night hours lingering into the morning and early
afternoon. Otherwise, generally light to moderate west to
southwest breezes are expected with seas 2 feet or less for the
most part.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

With wet conditions in place, fire weather concerns remain low.
Conditions remain fairly wet into early next week, but a drying
trend potentially develops through the week so expect warmer
temperatures by Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

Heavy rainfall will continue to be possible across the area over
the next day or so with isolated flash flooding possible. Recent
rains have caused area rivers and streams, mainly across SE
Alabama and the FL Panhandle/western Big Bend, to rise. At this
point, only Bruce Creek near Redbay is in minor flood but should
fall back into action stage this evening. Several other rivers and
streams are in action stage or are forecast to reach action stage
over the next several days. No additional river flooding is
forecast at this time, but that could change if additional
significant rainfall is observed in the next day or so. After
Monday we transition into a drier and warmer pattern with much
lower chances for rain.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   76  91  75  94 /  20  80  20  50
Panama City   80  89  78  91 /  30  60  30  50
Dothan        75  91  73  93 /  40  60  10  30
Albany        75  92  73  95 /  30  50  10  20
Valdosta      75  92  75  95 /  20  70  20  40
Cross City    78  89  76  92 /  30  70  40  60
Apalachicola  80  89  79  90 /  30  60  40  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     FLZ007>017-026-027-108-112-114-115-127.

     High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening
     for FLZ112-114.

GA...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ142-143-155>157.

AL...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield

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