Severe Thunderstorm Warning 413, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
118 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1041 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

No major changes to the forecast. First round of storms is pushing
out of the FL Big Bend this morning and into the northern
Peninsula. Behind it, cumulus clouds are bubbling up along with a
few isolated showers and thunderstorms. Expect the next round of
scattered to widespread convection to get going during the early
afternoon hours. SPC mesoanalysis shows healthy amounts of CAPE
and little shear; however, there is currently some capping in
place.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 352 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

A more active pattern is expected today and tonight with several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible across the area. An
upper level longwave trough is forecast to setup across the
eastern CONUS throughout the near term period providing a bit of
lift. Some reflection of the trough can be seen in the mid-levels
although a fair bit weaker. Expect scattered to widespread showers
and thunderstorms to develop near the coast this morning before
spreading inland throughout the day. Storm motions should
generally be west to east, however several rounds of showers and
storms will be possible through the period. A lull may be possible
in the evening and early overnight hours before a passing
shortwave kicks off another round of showers and storms in the
early morning hours. A few storms could be strong to severe with
gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall as the primary threats. SPC
has most of the area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe
weather today with portions of the FL Panhandle and SE AL in a
Slight Risk (level 2 of 5). For the heavy rainfall threat, WPC has
roughly the western half of the area in a Marginal Risk (level 1
of 4) for excessive rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 352 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

The wettest day of the week is expected to be on Monday, as the
shortwave makes its way through the CWA. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected to be widespread with heavy rainfall and some storms
may be strong to severe with damaging wind gusts. These storms
will likely begin along the outflow of a diminishing pre-frontal
MCS that began moving into the region Sunday. Given the ongoing
precip and continuous cloud cover, further destabilization of the
atmosphere is not expected but, nonetheless, the storms may become
more better organized before the evening. As night falls on
Monday, activity is expected to diminish. The frontal boundary
will become stationary, possibly along the FL state line. If this
sets up, the stronger storms on Tuesday will likely be along and
south of the front.

PoPs for Monday will start the day with a 60-70 percent coverage
for our AL and GA counties in the morning hours with 80 percent
coverage for our FL counties. The afternoon coverage will increase
to a widespread 80 to 90 percent, with the higher chances along
and south of I-10. Both the SPC and WPC has highlighted the entire
CWA in a Marginal Risk for Severe weather and Excessive rainfall,
respectively.

Tuesday will be more of a diurnal setup, with current PoPs
ranging from 60 to 80 percent from I-10 and areas south, with
about a 30-50 percent for areas north of I-10 during the afternoon
hours. As mentioned earlier with the setup of the frontal
boundary, the SPC has highlighted areas along and south of I-10 in
a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for severe weather on Tuesday with the
main concern being locally damaging wind gusts. Risk should
continue through the afternoon, before a weakening trend begins by
early evening. Our FL counties are also highlighted in a Marginal
(1 of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall for Tuesday.

Temperatures for this term will be in the upper 80s for Monday,
then back to the low 90s again on Tuesday. Overnight lows will be
in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 352 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

The upper level troughing begins to lift north, allowing for
ridging to build in. This will return us to a more typical
summertime pattern with diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms. PoPs for the long term will be around 40-60 percent
most afternoons, with the highest chances south of I-10. We can
expect the temperatures to increase as we head towards the end of
the week, with highs reaching the upper 90s and heat indices
approaching advisory levels. Overnight lows will be in the mid
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through the
period. Convection has already developed this afternoon and will
persist into the evening hours. Another round may get going in the
early morning hours Monday. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall will be
possible with storms today with periods of MVFR to IFR. Some MVFR
ceilings are expected to develop outside of storms by Monday
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 352 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

An extended period of westerly winds will persist through the
period. Cautionary level conditions may be possible late tonight
into early Monday morning as westerly/southwesterly winds may
surge over our nearshore waters west of Apalachee Bay. Our main
concerns still are the daily showers and thunderstorms over the
marine zones, which could cause locally elevated seas, strong wind
gusts, and non- supercell waterspouts, particularly during the
morning hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 352 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

A wetter pattern is expected for the next couple of days with
more widespread showers and thunderstorms. High dispersions may be
possible today across portions of Florida and southern Georgia.
With high humidity persisting throughout the period along with
expected wetting rains, there are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 352 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

There are elevated chances for widespread showers and
thunderstorms across the Tri-State area that could lead to
possible localized flash flooding and nuisance flooding over the
next few days. Riverine flooding is not expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   93  75  86  74 /  70  90  90  40
Panama City   91  76  87  76 /  50 100  90  60
Dothan        90  72  85  71 /  70  70  80  20
Albany        90  73  85  70 /  60  60  80  20
Valdosta      92  74  85  71 /  60  60  90  40
Cross City    92  77  87  74 /  70  60  80  60
Apalachicola  91  78  87  76 /  70  70  90  70

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
307 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 ENE Alligator Point   29.92N 84.33W
07/09/2023  M47 MPH          GMZ730             FL   Mesonet

            47 mph gust at Bald Point.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
312 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Cairo                   30.88N 84.20W
07/09/2023  M42 MPH          Grady              GA   Mesonet

            City of Cairo Fire Department WeatherSTEM
            gusted to 42 mph.

&&

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