Severe Thunderstorm Warning 409, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
334 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2023

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 332 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2023

Typical afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are forecast
for the rest of today. Precipitation chances should taper around or
shortly after sunset with dry weather and lows in the mid 70s
expected overnight. Tomorrow, a shortwave is forecast to approach
the area. Most guidance has the actual wave moving over the region
late in the day and into Monday morning. Prior to that it looks like
we should see more traditional po-pup showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon. Model guidance still varies in convective
parameters, but gusty winds and heavy rain remain possible with any
storm that does develop. Highs for Sunday will generally be in the
low to mid 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 332 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2023

A trough and its associated frontal system look to move into the
southeast Sunday night into Monday. A shortwave rounding the base of
the trough looks to move some upper-level forcing across the region
throughout the overnight hours, however, support weakens with time.
Given elevated PWATs, over 2 inches, there is the potential for some
strong to severe weather, particularly across our SE AL and SW GA
counties. Although, it should be noted that forcing is better across
SE AL than it is across SW GA. The 850mb flow is around 20-30 knots
so kinematics are indicating a marginal potential for severe
weather.

Expect daytime highs generally in the upper 80s with overnight lows
generally in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 332 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2023

In the long term the aforementioned front becomes stationary,
current placement of this boundary is uncertain. Should the boundary
set up to the north of the area then the whole region may be under
unsettled weather throughout the long term. Should the boundary only
make it halfway through our region, like some models are suggesting,
then our Florida counties should expect to see higher activity
through the week than our SE AL and SW GA counties. This would be
due to a sharp PWAT gradient where our Florida counties have PWATs
between 1.5 and 2 inches, meanwhile our GA and AL counties are
generally less than 1.3 inches. Troughing lifts by Wednesday leaving
the southern tier of CONUS under broad ridging/somewhat zonal flow
aloft. This means our typical summertime regime will become
established, where our weather is determined by local diurnal
forcing mechanisms.

Expect daytime highs generally in the low to mid 90s with overnight
lows generally in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 332 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2023

No major changes to the TAFs today as the best chances for rain
and thunderstorms appears to be over SE Al and the FL Panhandle.
If storms form over the site conditions could drop to MVFR or IFR,
with VFR conditions prevailing outside of storms. Tomorrow, there
will be another round of storms. Timing is still questionable but
storms could start to fire between 16-18Z. Didn't add any lines as
confidence was low.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2023

An extended period of westerly winds will persist through the
period. Main concern will be the daily showers and thunderstorms
over the marine zones, which could cause locally elevated seas,
strong wind gusts, and non-supercell waterspouts, particularly
during the morning hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2023

Typical summer like weather is forecast, with daily shots of showers
and thunderstorms across the region. Heavy rain, gusty and erratic
winds, and lightning will be the threats with thunderstorms. Outside
of that, hot and humid conditions are forecast. Dispersions remain
high through the early evening hours and for much of the region on
Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2023

There are elevated chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms
across the Tri-State area that could lead to possible localized
flash flooding and nuisance flooding over the next few days.
Riverine flooding is not expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   76  93  75  86 /  30  70  50  90
Panama City   79  91  76  87 /  30  70  70  90
Dothan        73  90  72  85 /  40  70  60  90
Albany        74  91  73  85 /  20  60  50  80
Valdosta      74  93  74  86 /  20  70  30  90
Cross City    77  93  77  89 /  30  70  40  90
Apalachicola  80  91  79  88 /  40  70  70  90

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EDT /midnight CDT/ Sunday for
     FLZ112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...KR
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...Oliver

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