Severe Thunderstorm Warning 398, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1049 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1043 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023

Updated the ongoing forecast to reflect current trends, in
particular the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms
across portions of the western FL Panhandle late this morning.
Thus, have increased POPS and the coverage of POPS. Additional
precipitation activity is anticipated throughout the day, with the
potential of become strong to severe. Gusty winds, hail and
moderate rainfall are the main threats.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023

Satellite imagery this morning shows high cloud moving over the
area which has limited fog development this morning. As we get
closer to sunrise, we may still see some patchy fog or low cloud;
however, confidence has lowered in that.

For the rest of the day, it looks like fair weather cumulus should
develop by mid to late morning. Guidance shows favored chances for
showers and thunderstorms along and south of I-10 in the FL
counties and into SE AL. SW GA could see some afternoon and early
evening shower and thunderstorm development, thus kept some
mentionable PoP in their forecast. Chances for precipitation begin
to fizzle around sunset with dry weather forecast overnight. SPC
has painted us in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) today, for
potentially damaging wind gusts and hail. Convective parameters
aren't terribly great today, with CAPE and DCAPE being the most
bountiful and shear being limited. Storms will have to work with
the seabreeze and any lingering boundaries to really get going.
Heavy rain will be possible in the stronger showers and storms.

High temperatures today will span the 90s with heat index values
topping out in the mid 90s to roughly 105. For folks enjoying the
holiday, consider practicing heat safety. Wear plenty of sun
screen, drink water, wear light and loose fitted clothing, and
take frequent breaks in the shade or air conditioning if working
or spending time outside.

Lows for tonight will be in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 355 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023

Upper level flow will be quasi-zonal with a stationary boundary
set to sag south and/or easterly during this period. This will
lead to increasing shower and thunderstorm chances each day.
Wednesday SPC paints another Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for
severe weather over our GA and AL counties. Chances look slightly
better, but not by much and may be suppressed by cloud cover.
Gusty winds and perhaps some small hail will be possible. PWATs
remain high and around 1.7-2.4 inches, so heavy rain will be
possible in stronger showers and storms. Chances for severe
weather decrease Thursday, with typical summertime storms
producing gusty winds and heavy rain being favored.

Highs for Wednesday and Thursday will be in the 90s once again,
with heat index values ranging from the upper 90s to near 105.
Overnight lows remain warm as well and in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 355 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023

Ensembles show upper level high pressure building over the south
central and southwest portion of the US while an upper low tries
to dig into the northern Plains and northern Great Lakes region.
Flow should go from quasi-zonal at the start to being on the
eastern edge of the ridge while the trough potentially digs into
the Great Lakes near the end of the period. Pending how the
placement of these systems pan out, we could see unseasonably hot
temperatures return. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be
possible but could be suppressed pending how the pattern pans out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 654 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023

The air mass will moisten a bit today, increasing the coverage of
afternoon air mass thunderstorms. Short-lived pulse storms are
expected, which would likely limit the duration of thunder at any
terminal to about one hour. Given the pulse mode of storms, they
will dissipate around sunset, if not sooner.

Low stratus is possible as we approach sunrise Wednesday,
especially for any terminals that end today with rain-cooled air
in place.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023

Light to gentle breezes are forecast for today and tomorrow, which
should lead to seas around 1 foot. Seas up to 2 feet might be
possible during the afternoon and evening within the seabreeze
zone closer to the coast. Thursday and Friday, and approaching
front will lead to a slight uptick in westerly winds, which may
build seas to around 2 feet at times, especially closer to the
coast. Thunderstorm activity over the waters will also increase
between Wednesday and Friday, with locally higher winds and seas
likely.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible today, but may be
isolated to scattered in nature. Best chances for precipitation
look to be across SE AL, the western FL Panhandle, and the
western most counties of the FL Big Bend. Chances then increase
each day as we transition to a wetter pattern. Dispersions
should be between 30-50, with values potentially increasing for
Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2023

We will be transitioning to a wetter pattern over the next few
days, which shower and thunderstorm and increasing each day. PWAT
values are forecast to increase, to about 1.7 to 2.4 inches which
could lead to localized areas of heavy rain. Localized flash
flooding and nuisance flooding will be possible if storms stall or
train over a particular area.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   95  77  94  76 /  50  20  70  20
Panama City   91  79  91  78 /  40  20  60  40
Dothan        92  75  92  73 /  50  20  70  30
Albany        94  75  93  74 /  40  20  60  40
Valdosta      96  75  95  75 /  30  20  60  30
Cross City    94  76  95  76 /  20  10  50  30
Apalachicola  91  79  91  79 /  30  10  60  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Bowser
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...KR

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