Severe Thunderstorm Warning 385, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
911 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 904 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

Increased rain chances this evening and into the early overnight
hours as showers and storms continue to drift southward into the
area. Environment continues to be pretty favorable for downbursts
with DCAPE still in the 1000 to 1300 J/Kg range. Convection should
gradually dissipate into the early overnight hours.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

Sea-breeze forced convection gradually propagates northward
with highest PoPs invof and south of the I-10 corridor. This
activity will diminish early tonight. This evening and into
early tonight, CAMs suggest the potential for one or two
MCS's to make a run at the region from the north. But similar
to Friday evening, a most likely scenario is for any activity
to decay as it approaches our CWA. SPC maintains a marginal
risk for for the northern tier of GA Counties - an isolated
damaging wind gust is possible - continue slightly higher
PoPs in this area until shortly after midnight. There is a
low probability more robust storms make it further south
into portions of Southeast Alabama and Southwest Georgia.

On Saturday, the low to mid-level flow begins veering to a
more southerly and westerly direction. The sea-breeze will
again be the main driver of afternoon and evening thunder-
storms. With increasing PWATs and higher Galvez Davison
Index values, PoPs should be closer to climatology in the
40-50% range for most of the region. With the mid and upper-
level flow becoming more southwesterly, our close brushes
with "ring of fire" MCS's will be behind us. The latest
SPC outlook supports this with the marginal risk well to
our north.

Of course, the heat will continue to be a hot topic. We're
on the cusp of Heat Advisory criteria (108-112 deg heat
indices) on Sunday, especially in the FL Counties. Given
the uncertainty, including more seasonable coverage of PoP
compared to Saturday, will hold off on a Heat Advisory at
this time, and let subsequent shifts evaluate based on
the latest model data.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 258 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

Upper level ridge that's been the main player in the local weather
will begin to lose strength at the beginning of the upcoming week.
This is mostly due to the influx of broad and weak cyclonic flow
dropping into the southeast. With the weakening ridge, but still a
lack of any significant deep layer moisture, rain chance will
increase for Monday afternoon, but expect activity to remain
largely isolated. Temperatures will continue to be warm with
overnight lows warm and humid and in the mid 70s with Monday's
high temperatures climbing into the upper 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 258 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

The influence of broad cyclonic flow continues into the long term
period as we begin to attain a greater south and southwesterly
component to the mean flow. This will allow greater deep-layer
moisture to move into the region and will see a gradual increase
in rain chances through much of the upcoming week. As rain chances
slowly increase, we'll see temperatures slowly back off slightly
with temperatures dropping back to the mid 90s, and possibly lower
90s if the forecast rain chances verify.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 716 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. Thunderstorms have
developed north of ABY and are slowly drifting southward. On the
current track, these storms would pass over or near ABY during the
next 2 to 3 hours, if they hold together. Thus, have included a
tempo TSRA group with VCTS prevailing. Light westerly winds will
prevail tonight and through much of tomorrow before the sea breeze
moves inland later in the afternoon. Have wind shifts out of the
south and VCTS for all TAF sites beginning after 19-22z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

A weak area of high pressure will remain over the southeast
through early next week which will lead to mostly light and
variable flow with limited chance for rain. Seas will remain less
than 2 feet. Through next week, increasing moisture and a slight
uptick in southerly flow will bring a small increase in winds/seas
but conditions will likely stay below cautionary levels.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

There are no fire weather concerns over the next few days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023

No hydrologically significant rainfall is expected for the next 7
days. A gradual increase to normal summer thunderstorm activity
is forecast around the middle of next week. By the second half of
next week, this should bring the return of short-duration local
runoff issues beneath heavier downpours.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   76  98  76  97 /  20  50  10  30
Panama City   78  93  78  92 /  20  20   0  20
Dothan        75  97  75  95 /  20  50  10  30
Albany        75  98  76  96 /  40  40  20  40
Valdosta      75  98  76  98 /  20  50  10  40
Cross City    74  96  74  95 /  10  30  10  30
Apalachicola  78  91  78  90 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Haner

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