Severe Thunderstorm Warning 363, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
419 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023

A cutoff low will slowly move northward throughout today as it gets
absorbed into the main mid-level flow. As it does so, it will force
one more day of robust showers and storms. When combined with an
800mb flow of 20 to 30 kts the potential for some strong to severe
storms is still possible. The flow is strongest over the FL Big Bend
into SW and south central Georgia and weaker to the west. As this
cutoff low spins it will provide consistent upper-level support for
ascent. This will result in several rounds/bursts of convection
throughout the day. The general motion for storms will be to move
from the SW to the NE, toward the low pressure center. This has the
potential to induce flooding as storms train over the same area in
the form of rainbands. Activity is expected to significantly
decrease after sunset and into the overnight hours.

Expect daytime highs in the mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in
the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023

Wet weather is forecast to last through Friday, with conditions
starting to improve and dry out for Saturday. Heavy rain and
perhaps a few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on
Friday. Saturday, guidance hints at a drier air mass moving in and
the quasi stationary front being suppressed to the southeast. This
should keep higher pops across our FL counties and perhaps up to
southeastern GA counties along I-75. Temperatures are forecast to
have some growth, with highs peaking in the mid to upper 80s on
Friday and the upper 80s to near 90 on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023

Ensembles show upper level troughing gradually being pushed back
to the north through the extended, while upper level high pressure
builds over TX and expands north and eastward. This will give us
a reprieve in PoP; however, flow will be from the northwest. A
front looks to try and pass through as well early next week. Given
this, we'll need to be on the look out for any MCSs that form and
try to slide into our region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 143 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023

MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to impact most sites over the
next few hours as lowering cigs and shower activity affect
terminals. Another round of SHRA/TSRA is on deck for today, with
current model trends starting it off mid to late morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023

A quasi-stationary front will remain draped northwest of the
waters, maintaining southwest winds over the next several days.
More tranquil boating conditions are expected to settle into the
waters on Friday and continue through the upcoming weekend. The
exception will be a higher coverage of thunderstorms through
Saturday, with locally higher winds and seas at times.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023

Another round of wetting rain is expected today with more rain
possible into this weekend. There are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023

Wet weather will continue through the work week as we remain
influenced by an upper level trough and a quasi-stationary front.
Given the previous week's weather and Wednesday rain, area soils
are fairly saturated. QPE analysis from AHPS shows SE AL and SW GA
got about 2- 6 inches of rain, locally higher amounts of 6 to 10
inches, which matches the eastern counties of the FL Big Bend.
From about Leon and Wakulla counties to Holmes and Bay County rain
amounts are more varied and range from roughly 1 to 4 inches.
Slightly higher amounts were observed in Walton around 3 to 8
inches. In addition to those amounts, Wednesday's radar estimated
rainfall includes 3 to 5 inches over portions of Southwest GA west
of the Flint River and along the Gadsden/Leon County line.

An additional rainfall of 1 to 5 inches with locally higher
amounts is forecast through Friday across much of the region. As a
result, a Flood Watch remains in effect. The current Flash Flood
guidance for our AL and GA counties is around 1 to 3 inches per
hour, with areas west of the Flint River closer to the 1 to 2 inch
per hour range. Across the FL counties, the thresholds are
slightly higher, and 2 to 4 inch per hour rainfall rates to cause
flash flooding.

Riverine:
A Flood Warning remains in effect for the Ochlockonee at Concord.
The Aucilla at Lamont should reach minor flood stage later today,
perhaps as early as this morning. Other area rivers such as the
Choctawhatchee, Apalachicola, Flint, Withlacoochee, and
Fenholloway are either in action stage or approaching action
stage.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   87  71  85  71 /  70  50  90  40
Panama City   85  73  86  74 /  60  60  80  50
Dothan        85  68  85  69 /  70  50  70  30
Albany        84  68  85  68 /  80  50  70  20
Valdosta      85  70  84  70 /  80  60  90  30
Cross City    87  72  85  71 /  80  60  90  50
Apalachicola  84  75  84  75 /  90  70  90  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Friday evening for FLZ007>019-026>029-034-
     108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.

     High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ early this
     morning for FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...Flood Watch through Friday evening for GAZ120>131-142>148-
     155>161.

AL...Flood Watch through Friday evening for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Oliver
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...KR/LF

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