Severe Thunderstorm Warning 348, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
647 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

...SEVERE WEATHER ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN THE FORM OF TWO ROUNDS -
ONE THIS MORNING AND THE OTHER DURING THE AFTERNOON...

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

All eyes this AM are on a large cluster of strong to severe
thunderstorms racing across the Lower MS Valley. This activity has a
history of producing damaging winds, tornadoes, and hail during the
overnight hours and will look to pose similar threats locally to
start off the work week/morning commute. The 6Z HRRR brings this MCS
into SE AL and portions of SW GA around 12-13Z with additional
convection focusing along the FL Panhandle. These two areas of
storms then look to converge along the I-10 corridor while moving
generally east-southeastward later this morning. The main concerns
are strong to damaging winds given the linear and/or bowing nature
of the MCS. Potential impacts are scattered power outages and downed
trees, as we've seen in recent days. Heavy rainfall is also
possible. Frequent lightning is not to be overlooked either.

By the afternoon, convective redevelopment is expected in the wake
of its predecessor and may prove to be just as problematic. This
second wave appears to congeal into an extensive zonally oriented
linear mode through much of North FL that persists into the PM rush
hour, with isolated to scattered storms north of the state line. The
former would renew damaging wind potential, but also pose a heavy
rain/flood threat. Convection should begin waning while pushing into
the Gulf this evening.

The SPC has the entire service area under a Slight Risk (level 2 of
5) for severe weather and if trends continue or escalate with the
ongoing MCS, a Watch cannot be ruled out. A Slight Risk (level 2 of
4) is also in place by the WPC for everywhere but the eastern FL Big
Bend (Marginal, 1 of 4). Instances of flash flooding may occur,
particularly from training storms. Locations with saturated soils
from recent rains and urban, low-lying, and poor-drainage areas are
most vulnerable. Aside from the storminess, expect more warm/muggy
conditions with highs in the mid/upper 80s and lows in the low 70s
(isolated upper 60s).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

The upper air pattern is characterized by an omega block across
much of the CONUS and a rex block over the eastern US. An upper
low will sag southward from the Tennessee Valley to central
Georgia and support a surface low pressure area and cold front.
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are once again possible
each day, with hail and strong winds as the main threats. SPC has
a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms each day. Not much change
really from the past few days just a slightly lower threat level.
Heavy rainfall also continues to be a concern with WPC outlooking
atleast a marginal to slight risk for excessive rainfall each day.
Rain chances Tuesday will be highest along and south of the front
(70-90%) then high chances (80-90) everywhere Wednesday as the
upper low is just about sitting over the area. The heaviest
rainfall day of this period will be Wednesday. Highs will be
around 90 degrees Tuesday then mid/upper 80s Wednesday as abundant
cloud cover and widespread rainfall temper highs a little.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

The blocking patterns across the CONUS will finally begin to break
down in the long term period. The upper low entrenched in the
southeast US finally exits stage north as the associated rex block
breaks down and upper ridging is allowed to move northward towards
the Red River by Tuesday. Though the upper low kicks out, we will
remain under the influence of the upper trough with embedded
shortwaves through the period. This will keep the moist
trajectories from the Gulf and thus the elevated rain and
thunderstorm chances will continue. In fact, rain chances of
60-90% are expected each day. Though severe weather risk will be
low, the flooding risk is elevated as repeated rounds of heavy
rainfall will continue through the weekend. There appears to
possibly be some slight reprieve in the high rain chances and
flooding concerns towards next week as the southwest ridge builds
towards the southeast US.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

Adjusted TAFs to acct for ongoing convection across the Wiregrass,
western FL Panhandle, parts of SW GA. Leaned on the 8Z HRRR for
timing of thunder at the terminals. Bottom line: all sites are
expected to be impacted by scattered t-storms, capable of strong
to severe gusts today. Convection looks to persist longer and
deeper into the afternoon along the I-10 corridor before waning
around 0Z or up to a couple hrs after. Southwest winds prevail
(breezy at times) with MVFR-IFR cigs late tonight at TLH/VLD/ABY.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

The continued parade of high chances for showers and
thunderstorms, some severe featuring hail, strong winds, frequent
lightning and waterspouts, is expected to continue through the
next several days. Persistent southwesterly winds are expected as
well, with some strengthening in the nearshore waters today so
cautionary conditions are anticipated. Also, locally higher winds
and seas will occur in and around heavier showers and storms which
will make boating conditions suddenly difficult.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

A continued wet/stormy pattern precludes fire concerns outside of
gusty/erratic winds and frequent lightning from scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms (some strong to severe).
Widespread wetting rains are likely into mid-week. Lastly, high
dispersions are forecast across the Wiregrass Region on Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

No real change in the wet pattern for the next week. Forecast
rainfall amounts are on the order of 4 to 6 inches, with 6 to 8
inches along the nature coast and southeast Florida Big Bend.
These forecast amounts have been fairly consistent over the past
few model runs but could change depending on the eventual
evolution of synoptic scale features. This will keep flooding
concerns firmly in tact through the week, especially in areas that
have received recent heavy rainfall, including areas of southwest
georgia, southeast Alabama, and the eastern Florida Big Bend.

Concerning area rivers, more rivers are forecast to reach or are
in action stage, including the Fenholloway, Ochlockonee,
Ichawanochaway, Flint, Choctawhatchee, Pea, Apalachicola, and
Aucilla rivers. Aucilla at Lamont is forecast to just reach minor
flood stage wednesday then slowly fall.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   86  71  88  71 /  70  70  80  70
Panama City   85  74  87  73 /  70  70  70  80
Dothan        85  70  88  69 /  80  40  60  70
Albany        86  71  87  69 /  80  50  70  70
Valdosta      89  69  86  70 /  70  80  80  70
Cross City    88  73  85  71 /  60  80  90  80
Apalachicola  86  77  85  74 /  60  80  80  90

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...Scholl

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