Severe Thunderstorm Warning 295, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
355 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 259 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Shortwave trough currently moving across western Mississippi, is
aiding in another MCS/cluster of storms from central Alabama
westward to central Mississippi. This complex with move
east/southeast, while additional development will occur in
southern Alabama and in the northern Gulf. This area will spread
east this morning while additional development will occur this
afternoon from central Alabama towards the Florida panhandle. The
atmosphere hasn't changed much over the past few days with
instability remaining on the order of 2500-3500 J/kg, bulk shear
around 40 knots, PWATs around 1.8 inches, and lift with the
shortwave troughs, seabreeze, and introduction of a southward
moving cold front. SPC today has a slight risk for severe weather
today, citing the biggest threats as wind and hail with an
isolated tornado threat as well. Also, with the recent heavy
rainfall, especially through our Georgia and southeast Alabama
counties, a slight risk for excessive rainfall exists in these
areas as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 259 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Not much change in the overall pattern is expected into the short
term period. Northwest flow, in between upper ridging in the
western Gulf and troughing over the northeast, will act to keep
the instability, shear, and moisture in place to warrant a
continued threat for severe weather both Friday and Saturday. SPC
has much of the area in a slight risk for severe weather Friday
and a marginal risk for Saturday. Several impulses will ride down
on northwest flow and act to get things going and aided by diurnal
convection through the day, rain chances are fairly high with
70-80% across much of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Troughing continues over the southeast as a strong shortwave
trough reinforces and deepens the upper trough and upper ridging
slides westward. This will keep elevated rain chances in the
forecast through this period with multiple episodes of convective
clusters or MCSs moving in on northwest flow, in addition to the
normal diurnal seabreeze activity as well. With the amount of rain
and cloud cover, have high temperatures this period mostly in the
upper 80s to around 90 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Several rounds of convection, including severe thunderstorms, are
expected through the period. There will be a brief reprieve early
this TAF cycle but more convection will develop and move into the
area through the overnight period. Brief periods of MVFR/IFR
within heavier convection can be expected. Scattered to numerous
storms will occur through the day Thursday and into Thursday
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Unsettled weather is likely the next few days with multiple
rounds of showers and thunderstorms moving near or across the
waters. Thunderstorms will be capable of strong gusty winds, hail,
waterspouts and frequent lightning. Otherwise, generally
southwest winds are expected with periods of exercise caution
conditions, especially within the nearshore waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

An unsettled weather pattern will continue into the weekend. Daily
rounds of showers and thunderstorms, including severe
thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and isolated
tornadoes, is also expected to continue into the weekend. Elevated
transport winds will lead to areas of high dispersions, especially
across the Florida counties and into southwest Georgia.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Widespread rainfall totals of 1-2 inches were reported through
the area and via doppler radar, with areas around the Flint river
and wiregrass from southwest Georgia and extreme southeast Alabama
picking up 4-6 inches. Albany airport recorded 5.19 inches
yesterday and the heaviest of rainfall occurred through Randolph,
Terrell, Calhoun and Dougherty counties. These areas will
especially be vulnerable to additional flooding risks as storms
develop today. Heaviest totals today may shift a little south and
will need to keep an eye on the panhandle for possible inclusion
in the watch later.

Totals over the next several days will be around 2-4 inches with
isolated higher amounts. Concerning area rivers, a few of the
faster responding rivers are forecast to reach action stage over
the next several days, including the Choctawhatchee, Flint,
Kinchafoonee, and Ochlockonee. This also bears watching depending
on how rainfall over the next several days occurs.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the
office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   89  73  89  72 /  70  70  70  60
Panama City   87  74  87  74 /  60  60  70  60
Dothan        86  70  88  70 /  70  70  60  60
Albany        86  68  88  69 /  80  70  40  40
Valdosta      87  70  89  70 /  80  70  60  50
Cross City    89  74  88  73 /  70  60  70  60
Apalachicola  86  77  86  75 /  60  50  70  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Friday evening for FLZ007-009-011.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...Flood Watch through Friday evening for GAZ120>131-142>148-
     155>161.

AL...Flood Watch through Friday evening for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Scholl

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1236 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Sneads                  30.68N 84.93W
06/15/2023                   Jackson            FL   Law Enforcement

            Jackson county continues to receive numerous
            reports of trees and power lines down.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1255 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 N Donaldsonville a/P  31.02N 84.88W
06/15/2023  M49 MPH          Seminole           GA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station UGA85 Donalsonville.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
115 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Greensboro              30.57N 84.57W
06/15/2023                   Gadsden            FL   911 Call Center

            Several trees down in Gadsden county.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
146 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Decatur Co a/P          30.97N 84.63W
06/14/2023  M73 MPH          Decatur            GA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station TT665 Bainbridge near the
            Decatur county airport.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
147 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 SE Newton             31.28N 84.29W
06/14/2023  M58 MPH          Mitchell           GA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station UGA09 Camilla.

&&

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>