Severe Thunderstorm Warning 271, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
507 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 416 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

A rinse and repeat day is on tap for the foreseeable future. Wish we
had a better outlook, unfortunately the MCS parade continues.
Several more MCS's will move through the region over the next 24
hours. The ongoing one, one overnight tonight, one late tomorrow
morning into the afternoon, and another late tomorrow afternoon into
the evening. The greatest potential for severe will be through the
next 12 hours. With greater than 4000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 0-1km SRH
greater than 300 m2/s2, high-res guidance is currently painting an
MCS that blows through the region from NW to SE tonight. This MCS
have the potential to be a QLCS bow-type, which comes with all
hazard types. The SPC currently has our region outlined under a
moderate risk for tonight which includes a 10-14% tornado threat
across SE AL/SW GA, with a 45-59% threat of severe winds, and a 30
to 44% threat of severe hail across the top half of our area. This
overnight MCS will have the potential to push all the way to the
Gulf, which the last few have failed to do. This will limit the
intensity for the two rounds tomorrow, since the atmosphere won't be
able to recover the moisture quickly enough before the forcing for
ascent arrives. However, this is a relative comparison, even if the
MCS's aren't as strong as tonights', this doesn't mean they won't be
potent. The SPC currently has a 5-9% tor threat and a 15-29% hail
and wind threat for tomorrow. Thus, it's not time to let our guard
down just yet. Given that tonight's MCS looks to be intense, make
sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings at night.

Overnight lows are expected to be in the low to mid 70s with daytime
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Friday night)
Issued at 416 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

More active weather is in the forecast for the short term.
Friday's forecast has been upgraded to Slight Risk for severe
weather (level 2 of 5). The troughing aloft and surface
boundaries, along with favorable CAPE and shear will support
strong to severe thunderstorms. Hail, damaging winds,and a few
tornadoes may be possible. Similar conditions are expected
Friday; however, given some model disagreements, we remain in a
Marginal Risk for severe weather (level 1 of 5) at this time.
There's also the possibility for some MCS type systems to roll
through, which could favor damaging winds.

With that being said, please make sure to continue to have
multiple ways to receive warnings. Know where your safe space is
from severe weather. For severe weather safety tips visit
weather.gov/safety.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 416 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Ensembles show an upper level trough continuing to influence our
weather. Active weather remains possible over the weekend and
into early next week. Rain and thunderstorms look likely each day,
with storms possibly being strong at times. It's early to say if
we'll have severe weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 146 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

VFR to MVFR conditions are expected through most of the TAF
period, thunderstorms will be ongoing for nearly the entire TAF
period and are expected to impact most if not all terminals.
Brief MVFR to IFR conditions are possible within thunderstorms.
Conditions may begin to improve by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 416 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Stormy weather is likely the next few days with multiple rounds
of showers and thunderstorms moving near or across the waters.
Thunderstorms will be capable of strong gusty winds, hail,
waterspouts and frequent lightning. Otherwise, generally southwest
winds are expected with periods of cautionary conditions possibly
starting tomorrow night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 416 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

An unseasonably wet pattern will remain in place for the rest of this
week with the potential for severe weather each day. Elevated
transport winds will continue to contribute to pockets of high
dispersion over parts of Southeast Alabama, Southwest Georgia, and
the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle over the next few days

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 416 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

No major changes were made to the rainfall forecast for the next
few days. Periods of heavy rain will be possible through week,
with the greatest chances looking to be today through Friday. The
standard 4 to 8 inches is still forecast for portions SE AL and SW
GA, which is where the Flood Watch was hoisted earlier in the day.
Locally higher amounts could be possible if storms stall or train,
which correlates with the WPC Moderate and Slight Risks of
Excessive Rainfall. In our FL counties, lower amounts of 2 to 4
inches along I-10 and 1 to 3 inches for coastal communities are
possible. A Marginal Risk of Excessive Rain is forecast for these
areas today. The Excessive Rainfall risk for Thursday is Slight
for areas along and north of I-10, and Marginal for areas south.
Friday the majority of the CWA is in a Marginal Risk. Flooding
could range from nuisance and poor drainage to flash flooding if
storms drop substantial amounts of rain or train over an area.

In terms of rivers, we're expecting to see rises with several
points potentially reaching action stage along portions of the
Flint, Ochlockonee, and Choctawhatchee. If higher rainfall rates
are realized we could see rivers respond and potentially reach
minor flood stage.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the
office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   72  90  73  89 /  60  70  70  70
Panama City   75  87  74  87 /  50  60  70  70
Dothan        69  86  70  88 /  80  80  70  60
Albany        68  86  68  89 /  80  80  70  50
Valdosta      70  87  70  89 /  70  80  80  70
Cross City    72  89  74  89 /  40  70  70  70
Apalachicola  77  86  77  86 /  40  60  60  70

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Friday evening for FLZ007-009-011.

     High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     FLZ108-112-114.

GA...Flood Watch through Friday evening for GAZ120>131-142>148-
     155>161.

AL...Flood Watch through Friday evening for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Oliver
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...KR

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