Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
341 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 254 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Monitoring a southeast translating Mesoscale Convective System
(MCS) this morning over Central Alabama and Georgia. This should
time into our AL/GA Counties between 08Z and 10Z. Ahead of this
activity, a corridor of SB CAPE up to 1.5k J/kg exists with deep
layer shear up to 40 knots. This may sustain some activity into
our area, with isolated damaging wind gusts possible, especially
within bowing segments. Greatest threat is across our Southeast
AL and GA Counties, with portions of this area under a SPC Slight
Risk this morning.

For today, expect decent air mass recovery in the wake of this
morning's MCS. A surface front advancing southward toward the
area and another mid-level shortwave progged to move in from the
west will provide ample lift within an air mass characterized by
SB CAPE up to 4k J/kg. Unseasonably strong Bulk Shear around 30
kts will also aid in storm organization, with motion generally
east-southeastward around 30 knots. Much of the area is under a
SPC Marginal Risk this afternoon. The main threat is damaging
wind gusts, with inverted-v/caret sounding profiles. Given the
extent of the instability and some veering of the wind with
height, hail will be possible as well. Activity should end by
midnight tonight, as the shortwave exits and CIN increases.

Temperatures will be slightly above average today and tonight,
with southwest winds today becoming gusty, up to 20-25 mph at
times.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 254 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023

An active weather pattern is expected through the short term
period as the subtropical jet remains camped out across the
Gulf Coast states while a weak front stalls overhead or just north
of the area. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are
expected throughout the near term period, with severe weather and
heavy rainfall possible. Storms may push into the region from the
NW and W via MCSs in addition to firing along the seabreeze and/or
other leftover boundaries in the afternoons. A lot of the timing,
particularly of the heavy rain and severe threat, will likely end
up being fairly mesoscale-driven. However, when we have a setup
with cool season jet support and warm season moisture and
instability at the same time, we're likely in for some fairly
active weather over the next several days. While the primary
threats are damaging winds and heavy rainfall, hail and tornadoes
will also be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 254 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023

The active weather pattern is forecast to continue through the
long term period as well with the subtropical jet largely
remaining in place across the Gulf Coast states. However, the
aforementioned front is forecast to have dissipated by Thursday
which removes at least one of the main focusing mechanisms for
thunderstorm development. Nevertheless, scattered to widespread
showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast each day
with severe weather and heavy rainfall remaining possible. The
heavy rainfall threat in particular will be largely depending on
how the next couple of days plays out. More rain over the next
couple of days will mean our soils will be more sensitive to
additional heavy rainfall over the long term.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Brief restrictions are possible this morning at ABY and DHN in
association with a weakening line of SHRA/TSRA moving southeast
toward the terminals. Attention then turns to the development of
additional TSRA from late this afternoon into this evening with
highest chances outside of ECP. Except brief MVFR with TSRA, VFR
conditions are expected. Southwest winds will increase to around
10 kts with gusts around 20 kts today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Southwest winds prevail through the work week with generally
favorable boating the next couple of days outside of
thunderstorms. A stormy pattern likely arrives by Wednesday with
prevailing winds increasing to cautionary levels, especially over
nearshore Apalachee Bay where gusts in excess of 25 knots are
possible. Strong convective gusts and lightning will be the main
concern heading into the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023

An unseasonably wet pattern will remain in place this week.
Elevated transport winds will contribute to pockets of high
dispersion over portions of Southeast Alabama, Southwest
Georgia, and the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle today through
Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Periods of heavy rainfall will be possible through the upcoming
week, with the greatest threat over the next three to four days.
Widespread rainfall totals of 2 to 5 inches are forecast,
primarily across SE AL and S GA, with isolated higher amounts also
possible over the next week. This rainfall may lead to some flash
flooding.

Heavy rainfall will also likely lead to rises on area rivers,
although our rivers remain well below flood stage at this time.
Therefore, no river flooding is expected over at least the next 3
to 5 days. Heavier rain to our north may cause additional rises on
area rivers later on.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the
office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   92  74  92  74 /  50  30  60  20
Panama City   87  77  87  76 /  20  20  40  20
Dothan        92  71  90  72 /  60  40  70  40
Albany        92  70  90  70 /  60  40  70  50
Valdosta      92  72  91  72 /  60  40  70  30
Cross City    89  74  90  74 /  10   0  30  20
Apalachicola  86  77  85  77 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
331 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023

ALZ067-GAZ120>122-120800-
Henry AL-Quitman GA-Randolph GA-Clay GA-
331 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of north central Henry,
northwestern Clay, northwestern Randolph and Quitman Counties through
400 AM EDT/300 AM CDT/...

At 331 AM EDT/231 AM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Buena Vista to near
Lumpkin to near Gaino. Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Georgetown, Coates, Wire Bridge, Bonapartes Retreat, Scottsboro
Crossroads, Hatcher, Crossroads and Ricks Place.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3198 8504 3198 8501 3197 8495 3195 8496
      3192 8491 3193 8480 3192 8480 3192 8474
      3169 8520 3170 8525 3170 8522 3174 8521
      3177 8516 3177 8512 3178 8514 3189 8513
      3190 8511 3194 8508 3196 8509 3199 8507
TIME...MOT...LOC 0731Z 280DEG 32KT 3236 8451 3207 8488 3181 8540

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

33

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
412 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023

GAZ120>122-124-126-120845-
Quitman GA-Randolph GA-Lee GA-Terrell GA-Clay GA-
412 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of north central Clay,
Randolph, northwestern Lee, Quitman and central Terrell Counties
through 445 AM EDT...

At 411 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Oglethorpe to near Plains to 9 miles northeast
of Fort Gaines. Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Dawson, Cuthbert, Georgetown, Shellman, Smithville, Bronwood,
Parrott, Wire Bridge, Carnegie, Crossroads, Randolph Co A/p,
Chambliss, Olivers Mill, Hatcher, Morris, Martins Crossroads,
Benevolence, Springvale, Cotton Hill and Wades.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3195 8496 3192 8491 3192 8445 3196 8444
      3187 8434 3192 8434 3191 8406 3163 8476
      3180 8513 3184 8514 3198 8498 3197 8495
TIME...MOT...LOC 0811Z 280DEG 32KT 3229 8409 3201 8446 3175 8497

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

33

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