Severe Thunderstorm Warning 209, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
351 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

The cumulus field has taken over the CWA this afternoon with
convection starting to fire just east of the I-75 corridor. The best
chances for precip appear to span from Ben Hill Co GA to Bay Co FL,
along and east of the line. Severe weather isn't anticipated;
however, gusty winds and perhaps some localized areas of heavy rain
may be possible. Precip chances will start to wane around sunset,
with drier conditions forecast overnight. Some localized patchy fog
could be possible along the I-75 corridor tonight if rain is
realized and winds ease. If not, we could see a stratus edge its way
in. Tomorrow, chances for precip increase as a moisture slug from
the Atlantic arrives, especially for our FL counties and GA counties
along the FL border.

Lows for tonight will be in the mid 60s, highs for tomorrow span the
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

A brief period of drier weather is forecast as gradually
transition back towards summer like weather. Much of the region
is forecast be dry with SE AL and the FL Panhandle having the best
chances at this time. Highs for Tuesday will be in the low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

Summer returns, with moisture returning for the mid and latter
portion of the work week. Expect afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms and high temperatures upper 80s to low 90s.
Overnight lows will be on the toastier side as well, and in the
upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 152 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

VCTS has been observed at KTLH, KVLD, and KECP with KABY
and KDHN likely staying dry and VFR throughout the TAF period.
Isolated convection at the aforementioned sites may briefly enter
TSRA conditions with VFR expected to resume around 00-02Z. Gusty
conditions are possible across all sites this afternoon with
thunderstorm gusts at KTLH, KECP, KVLD, and gradient driven wind
gusts at KDHN expected to die down by around 00Z. MVFR CIG's may be
possible at KVLD around 09-12Z, although uncertainty remains high
regarding this outcome and will be ironed out in future updates.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

Showers and thunderstorms are expected into the early evening
hours and will be capable of producing gusty and erratic winds,
heavy rain, and frequent lightning. Storms will generally move
from land to offshore during the day. Outside of storms, gentle
to moderate northeast breezes are forecast into tonight with high
pressure building north of the area. Winds and seas are expected
to decrease again for the early to middle part of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

The main fire weather concerns continue to be high dispersions over
the next few days. Tomorrow looks to be the best chance for showers
and thunderstorms which is when a slug of moisture tries to nose its
way into the region. This will be short lived as precip chances then
decrease Monday and Tuesday. By midweek moisture should return to
the region, with seabreeze convection becoming more likely. High
temperatures during this timeframe will gradually increase with
highs spanning the 80s Sunday and upper 80s to low 90s by Tuesday.
MinRH will vary each day, from the mid 30s to about 50 inland, and
between 40 to 60% closer to the coast. Overnight recover is expected
to be good each and generally range from 80 to 90%.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

No significant flooding is expected for the next several days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   64  89  66  90 /   0  10   0  20
Panama City   67  86  69  85 /  40  10  10  20
Dothan        65  88  66  90 /  10  10   0  30
Albany        64  88  66  92 /  10   0   0  20
Valdosta      62  88  64  92 /   0   0   0  10
Cross City    65  90  64  90 /  10  10  10  10
Apalachicola  68  82  70  82 /  40  10  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Worster
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Worster
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...Worster
HYDROLOGY...KR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
341 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

FLZ015-026-027-042030-
Inland Franklin FL-Liberty FL-Inland Wakulla FL-
341 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central
Wakulla, southeastern Liberty and north central Franklin Counties
through 430 PM EDT...

At 340 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 20
miles north of Carrabelle, moving southwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
East Camp, Jewel Fire Tower, Poplar Camp, Morgan Place, Smith Creek,
Kern, Twin Pole, Sanborn and Owens Bridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3026 8465 3010 8455 2990 8486 3014 8501
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 061DEG 19KT 3014 8469

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JCW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
356 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

FLZ015-027-127-042030-
Inland Franklin FL-Coastal Wakulla FL-Inland Wakulla FL-
356 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Wakulla
County through 430 PM EDT...

At 356 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Crawfordville, moving southwest at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Crawfordville, Sopchoppy, Buckhorn, Sanborn, Tully and Arran.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3001 8462 3002 8457 3003 8458 3003 8459
      3006 8461 3007 8463 3016 8466 3022 8434
      3014 8427 3001 8454 3001 8455 2998 8461
      2999 8461
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 066DEG 26KT 3015 8441

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

01-GONZALEZ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
410 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Tallahassee Internation 30.40N 84.35W
06/04/2023  M56 MPH          Leon               FL   Mesonet

            KTLH measured a 56 mph wind gust.

&&

IG3

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