Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1253 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1106 AM EDT Wed May 17 2023

No changes to the forecast this morning. We're watching some mid
and high level cloud, stretching from SW GA to the FL Panhandle,
slowly break apart. In the breaks and other areas that have
cleared, cumulus have started to develop with showers along with
some showers and thunderstorms. Storm development is currently and
west of the Apalachicola River in the FL Panhandle and in our far
eastern FL Big Bend counties. SPC has expanded the Marginal Risk
to encompass the tri-state area as conditions perhaps look a bit
more favorable. Dew points have increased into the upper 60s in
to low 70s for our GA and AL counties, and are in the mid 70s for
the FL. The sounding from our office this morning depicted a
healthy amount of CAPE with 1417J/kg at the surface and 2382J/kg
of MU CAPE. DCAPE is bountiful too, around 1173 J/kg with shear
being the weaker of the components. Damaging winds and hail should
be the primary concerns for today.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 254 AM EDT Wed May 17 2023

A fairly active afternoon and evening is expected today with
marginal risks of severe weather and excessive rainfall from both
the SPC and WPC. The culprit is a broad upper trough moving eastward
towards the area from Texas, which will provide some modest large
scale lift. Slightly cooler 500 mb temperatures compared to
yesterday will aid in moderate instability this afternoon along with
rather steep low level lapse rates, and a weak surface boundary will
be located just north of the area. Thunderstorms that develop this
afternoon could be strong enough to produce isolated instances of
damaging wind and hail.

The other concern is for pockets of heavy rainfall as precipitable
water values are forecast to remain high this afternoon at around
1.8 inches. Although there will be decent steering flow this
afternoon, some backbuilding storms are possible with the steering
flow nearly parallel to the surface boundary just north of the area.
In addition, the pockets of heavy rain over the past couple of days
have reduced flash flood guidance values somewhat. Areas that have
seen heavy rainfall in the past couple of days could see flooding if
another quick burst of 3-4 inches is received in a few hours time.

Highs today will generally range from the mid to upper 80s with
overnight lows in the mid 60s to near 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 254 AM EDT Wed May 17 2023

Broad cyclonic flow, with a few weak embedded impulses traversing
through the upper level flow, will prevail through the end of the
week. At the surface, strong surface high pressure will translate
east off the eastern US and this will encourage the movement of a
backdoor front from the northeast into the forecast area on
Thursday. With low-level moisture still in place, and plenty of
low-level convergence along the front and seabreeze,
scattered/widespread showers and storms are anticipated again.
Additionally, northeast flow at surface is a good pattern for us
to bring cooler temperatures so blended towards the lower guidance
for max temperatures, especially across our Georgia counties
where highs will be around 80.

Drier mid-level air will begin to work into the region from the
west on Friday, but there should still be enough moisture to work
with for isolated/scattered showers and storms to develop,
especially across the Panhandle where northeast flow converges
along the seabreeze. Despite lower rain chances on Friday, the
influence of the backdoor front should still keep temperatures
fairly similar to Thursday with highs in the low 80s across
Alabama and Georgia and in the mid to upper 80s across our Florida
counties.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 AM EDT Wed May 17 2023

Despite the northwest flow aloft, the upcoming weekend has
trended wetter as weak impulses continue to move through the
area. While rain chances and coverage won't be as high as what
we're seeing this week, it should be enough to produce scattered
storms in the afternoon hours. While uncertainty exists with
regards to instability, stronger upper level flow could at least
support the chance for a few strong storms as they develop. The
same can be said for Sunday.

Ensemble guidance is in modest agreement on easterly flow taking
hold early next week with no significant upper level ridging
overhead. With moisture return possible off the Atlantic, this
supports at least a chance for afternoon showers/storms continuing
each afternoon into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023

Another round of low ceilings and fog appears likely
throughout the TAF period. Storms are currently ongoing near KTLH
and ECP with conditions expected to clear up around 00Z. KDHN, KVLD,
and KABY will be at minimum VCTS beginning around 19-20Z lasting
until 01-02Z. VFR conditions will prevail until around 09Z across
all sites before dropping to at least MVFR across all sites as
ceilings drop with high confidence that KTLH and KDHN will reach IFR
due to low vis. KECP would have been included too, however winds may
limit how dense fog will be and may need to be re-evaluated in the
00Z update.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Wed May 17 2023

A weakening cold front drops into the region through Thursday and
ahead of it we'll likely see increased southwesterly flow until
Thursday night. For the upcoming weekend, flow will largely be
light and variable so expect winds and seas to be fairly benign
with the only hazards being occasional thunderstorms. Late in the
weekend another cold front possibly moves through, bringing
stronger northwesterly winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Wed May 17 2023

There are no significant fire weather concerns over the next few
days with a wet pattern in place.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Wed May 17 2023

No river flooding is anticipated through the next 7 to 10 days.
However, brief heavy downpours over the next two to three days
could result in isolated flooding of poor drainage areas. Please
refer to the near-term section above regarding the concern for
flooding potential this afternoon.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the
office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   68  84  67  85 /  40  80  20  20
Panama City   70  84  69  84 /  30  50  10  30
Dothan        67  81  65  81 /  60  90  20  20
Albany        67  79  64  81 /  70  90  20  20
Valdosta      67  82  65  83 /  70  90  30  20
Cross City    69  87  67  88 /  20  60  30  20
Apalachicola  72  82  71  82 /  20  40  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     FLZ114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Worster
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs

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