Severe Thunderstorm Warning 173, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
120 PM EDT Mon May 15 2023

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 156 AM EDT Mon May 15 2023

A fairly active day is expected today as a weak frontal boundary
sags southward into the area with a tropical airmass in place and
weak steering flow. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop this afternoon, aided by the weak surface
boundary and other leftover mesoscale boundaries. Given the weak
steering flow and precipitable water values approaching 2 inches,
pockets of very heavy rainfall rates are expected which could lead
to localized flooding with the expected slow storm motions. Thus,
the WPC has a marginal risk of excessive rainfall in place across
the area. Heavy rain wording was included in the point and click
forecast today to account for this threat. Otherwise, highs today
are expected to warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s before
convection develops with overnight lows ranging from the mid 60s to
near 70. Convection is expected to gradually diminish after sunset.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 156 AM EDT Mon May 15 2023

The very summerlike pattern we've been under the last few days
will continue into the middle of the week as the upper level ridge
weakens and is replaced by an upper level trough. Additionally,
we'll likely see slightly better low-level moisture through the
week as low-level flow becomes southwesterly. The best coverage on
Tuesday will be across southeast Alabama as a weakening surface
trough associated with a dying cold front drifts into the area.
While the highest chances will be across southeast Alabama, given
the approaching surface trough, storm coverage is still possible
across the seabreezes and into the Big Bend and southwest Georgia.

Similar conditions are anticipated Wednesday as the moist airmass
remains and the influence of the upper level trough enhances
afternoon storm coverage.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 156 AM EDT Mon May 15 2023

The active pattern continues at least through Thursday as weak
upper level troughing remains in place. With plenty of moisture
to work with during the hottest part of the afternoon, widely
scattered showers and storms are expected again.

Looking towards the end of the weekend and into the weekend,
northwest flow aloft begins to take over which will possibly
decrease rain chances as drier mid-level moves into the region.
Temperatures will largely follow the rain chances with cooler
highs in the mid to upper 80s on the days with higher rain chances
and in the upper 80s to low 90s on the drier afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Mon May 15 2023

Scattered to widespread showers are expected this afternoon and
evening before diminishing for the overnight hours. Low ceilings
and fog will be possible at most sites overnight, with the best
chances further west. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1117 AM EDT Mon May 15 2023

Offshore buoys are reporting light winds and seas around 1 foot
with a wave period of up 7 seconds this morning. Winds will be
mostly light and variable through Tuesday with upper level
ridging in place. This will lead to mostly benign seas around 1
foot through Tuesday night. Upper level ridge weakens by Wednesday
and south/southwesterly flow will develop ahead a weakening cold
front. While the increase in southwesterly winds will lead to
higher winds and seas, conditions will likely remain below
cautionary levels. Only marine concerns will be showers/storms
that move off the mainland.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 156 AM EDT Mon May 15 2023

A summer-like pattern will continue through the next few days with
warm temperatures and scattered to numerous afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. Fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal due
to an abundance of moisture.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 156 AM EDT Mon May 15 2023

A wet pattern continues through the next few days as an active
summer-like persists. While widespread rainfall amounts will
likely not bring flooding, the main flooding risks will revolve
around slow moving storms, and where storms train. With high
preciptable waters the next few days, localized areas could
quickly receive 2 to 4 inches of rain in less than an hour if they
are under one of these slow moving or training storms.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   69  87  71  88 /  30  50  10  60
Panama City   71  84  73  85 /  20  30  20  40
Dothan        69  87  68  85 /  50  60  20  70
Albany        68  87  69  87 /  50  50  10  70
Valdosta      66  87  68  87 /  40  40  10  70
Cross City    66  87  69  87 /  30  30  10  40
Apalachicola  72  82  73  82 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs

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